Halfway through the season, we've got a losing record | Syracusefan.com

Halfway through the season, we've got a losing record

RF2044

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I know that the number of games any given season will vary, but we're 17 games in -- which is about half of a typical season [see table below] -- and we're on the wrong side of the W and L columns at 8 - 9.

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I never thought I'd see anything like this, given the unwavering consistency that JB's teams have demonstrated throughout his career.

The emperor has no clothes.
 
I know that the number of games any given season will vary, but we're 17 games in -- which is about half of a typical season [see table below] -- and we're on the wrong side of the W and L columns at 8 - 9.

View attachment 212844

I never thought I'd see anything like this, given the unwavering consistency that JB's teams have demonstrated throughout his career.

The emperor has no clothes.

Good programs have awful years over this run of winning seasons we have had yet in most of those cases it's not for lack of talent it's just a lack of the team playing as a team or talent isn't quite enough to overcome the lack of cohesion.

Our struggles are about talent and system. We have some decent players for sure but by comparison we are way down talent wise amongst the P5 world. It's sad we have come to this point.
 
Yeah but JB loves Symir and he made a really bad play yesterday and I thought Boeheim was going to blow torch him and all he did was pointed to his head and said, "think".

I mean he loves the kid and by playing him with Joe, Buddy, Jimmy and Jessie = wins.
 
Good programs have awful years over this run of winning seasons we have had yet in most of those cases it's not for lack of talent it's just a lack of the team playing as a team or talent isn't quite enough to overcome the lack of cohesion.

Our struggles are about talent and system. We have some decent players for sure but by comparison we are way down talent wise amongst the P5 world. It's sad we have come to this point.

Yeah, even programs like Dook, UNCheat, Kentucky etc have the occasional losing season -

But that is typically due to a key player or 2 getting injured, or something like that.
And then they croot another Top 10 class, and get right back into the Top 25 the next season.

Just a short term hiccup.

We’re now nearly a decade into having meh regular seasons, squeaking onto the bubble (if we’re lucky), and needing a semi-miraculous NCAA run to redeem the otherwise blah season.

All of which has come to a head this year.

We have limited talent & no depth.

Which is directly a function of coaching;
playing certain guys All The Minutes, which makes it really hard to croot talent, or to keep the talent you actually were lucky enough to sign.

The worst part is - I don’t even care anymore.
 
Yeah but JB loves Symir and he made a really bad play yesterday and I thought Boeheim was going to blow torch him and all he did was pointed to his head and said, "think".

I mean he loves the kid and by playing him with Joe, Buddy, Jimmy and Jessie = wins.
Except for the last coupla minutes where he reverted to form. I mean, why bring in the lineup that was most effective at getting good looks when you needed it most, amirite?
 
I know that the number of games any given season will vary, but we're 17 games in -- which is about half of a typical season [see table below] -- and we're on the wrong side of the W and L columns at 8 - 9.

View attachment 212845

I never thought I'd see anything like this, given the unwavering consistency that JB's teams have demonstrated throughout his career.

The emperor has no clothes.
The emperor has no clothes metaphor is not a good one in this situation. Like you said, he’s had unwavering consistency - who badly miscalculated this year.
 
We are trying to turn role players into stars and it’s not going to work. We lack one special player from being really good. You have these players with the players that left last year and we could win the ACC this year.
 
Yeah, even programs like Dook, UNCheat, Kentucky etc have the occasional losing season -

But that is typically due to a key player or 2 getting injured, or something like that.
And then they croot another Top 10 class, and get right back into the Top 25 the next season.

Just a short term hiccup.

We’re now nearly a decade into having meh regular seasons, squeaking onto the bubble (if we’re lucky), and needing a semi-miraculous NCAA run to redeem the otherwise blah season.

All of which has come to a head this year.

We have limited talent & no depth.

Which is directly a function of coaching;
playing certain guys All The Minutes, which makes it really hard to croot talent, or to keep the talent you actually were lucky enough to sign.

The worst part is - I don’t even care anymore.

Yeah I haven't missed many games this year absent work or family stuff but it's to the point of apathetically watching to see if they might get a win.

I didn't think a season that has been a semi disaster so far could actually get a lot worse but so far it's looking that way based upon the trend line of minutes distribution and the lack of correlation to performance.
 
You just have to look at his overall winning percentage to me. Remember all those years, they would show his career record on tv at the beginning of games and his winning percentage was always in the .742 to.749 range. Now including the vacated wins, it's .723.

Yes still an excellent percentage. But I'm no stats expert, but that seems like a pretty decent drop-off at this stage of his career, when you have such a large sample size.
 
You just have to look at his overall winning percentage to me. Remember all those years, they would show his career record on tv at the beginning of games and his winning percentage was always in the .742 to.749 range. Now including the vacated wins, it's .723.

Yes still an excellent percentage. But I'm no stats expert, but that seems like a pretty decent drop-off at this stage of his career, when you have such a large sample size.

The past 7 seasons took him from sitting well to finish top 20 or top 25 at worst in winning pct to #42 currently all time. That is without the vacated games as well.
 
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The emperor has no clothes.

C'mon man, given his overall record that's a bit harsh. I get it that responsibility for the current downward trend lies mostly with him, but he didn't just arrive on the scene back in October. And yes, it's frustrating, and I also think he should have retired a while back. But he didn't, and that's the reality. Has anyone considered it's statistically inevitable this slide would occur? Sometimes, like with Derrick Coleman's missed free throw, we just have to learn to accept it and live with it. But one thing for certain, relentless bitching here, trashing the man who made the program what it was, isn't going to change anything.

Just IMHO, that is.
 
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C'mon man, given his overall record that's a bit harsh. I get it that responsibility for the current downward trend lies mostly with him, but he didn't just arrive on the scene back in October. And yes, it's frustrating, and I also think he should have retired a while back. But he didn't, and that's the reality. Has anyone considered it's statistically inevitable this slide would occur? Sometimes, like with Derrick Coleman's missed free throw, we just have to learn to accept it and live with it. But one thing for certain, relentless bitching here, trashing the man who made the program what it was, isn't going to change anything.

Just IMHO, that is.

It's not harsh at all -- because I can use intellectual honesty and appreciate his ~4 decades of success, and still point out that he's led the program on a downward trend for the last 7 years.

I can applaud his winning percentage, and still not be willing to accept the results of the last few years, which have not been on par with the previous level of success.

I can celebrate all of the great players he's brought in, and still be critical of him no longer being willing to put in the effort to recruit highly rated recruits.

I can appreciate that he was a pioneer of positionless basketball and that we used to be one of the most entertaining teams in all college basketball to watch, and still fret over the fact that we've become one-dimensional and unathletic.

I can consider him an all time great, and still criticize that he's the conductor of this train that is about to derail.

I can appreciate his sardonic wit and brutal honesty, and still cringe when he throws the current players under the bus every press conference.

I can point to how, despite the tough love, how older players from back in the day all eventually love and credit him, and still acknowledge that he doesn't seem to have that rapport with the more recent players anymore, because he's now an old man who doesn't relate to them anymore.

I can point to all of the darkhorse / diamonds in the rough success he had in the first 2/3 of his time on the hill, and not be down with how he's handling the lone five-star we have on the team this year.

I say that he has no clothes, because I don't believe his rationalized explanations anymore. When he says players aren't ready, when he talks at mid-season about players leaving the team, when he talks about how things are fine -- I chalk it up to him just saying things.

Sad but true. And I say that in full deferential acknowledgement of how much I love the SU program, how much enjoyment he's brought to me as a fan of SU hoops for my entire life, and in full recognition that on the pantheon of great college coaches, he's in the top 8 or so all-time.

But all good things eventually come to an end. And I think many of the stubborn attributes that made him excel as a coach in a demanding, results driven profession are the same attributes that are now undermining him as we slouch toward the finish line.
 
The emperor has no clothes metaphor is not a good one in this situation. Like you said, he’s had unwavering consistency - who badly miscalculated this year.
This has been 4-5 years in the making. Maybe not as bad as this year, but the constant shorting of recruiting classes and playing guys way out of position were telltale signs this was coming
 
This has been 4-5 years in the making. Maybe not as bad as this year, but the constant shorting of recruiting classes and playing guys way out of position were telltale signs this was coming
Yup, this season isn’t an outlier, it’s the culmination of several years of misfires and decline. And I’m not sure we’ve completely bottomed out yet either.
 
I know that the number of games any given season will vary, but we're 17 games in -- which is about half of a typical season [see table below] -- and we're on the wrong side of the W and L columns at 8 - 9.

View attachment 212845

I never thought I'd see anything like this, given the unwavering consistency that JB's teams have demonstrated throughout his career.

The emperor has no clothes.
The emperor's faith in the next generation has failed him.
 
Yup, this season isn’t an outlier, it’s the culmination of several years of misfires and decline. And I’m not sure we’ve completely bottomed out yet either.
There's a way to make it more likely we have bottomed out, but I don't think we'll go that route.
 
This has been 4-5 years in the making. Maybe not as bad as this year, but the constant shorting of recruiting classes and playing guys way out of position were telltale signs this was coming
Does the fact that we currently have a nice class (top 15) signed affect this analysis at all? We’ve had a perfect storm of bad things happen and we’ve still managed to stay relevant. I get that this year sux but I don’t think people realize how hard it is to win at this level. I’m not calling you this but we seem to have quite a few bad mind readers on this forum that think that JB doesn’t mind losing as long as it is with his preferred players. That’s just crazy.
 
Does the fact that we currently have a nice class (top 15) signed affect this analysis at all? We’ve had a perfect storm of bad things happen and we’ve still managed to stay relevant. I get that this year sux but I don’t think people realize how hard it is to win at this level. I’m not calling you this but we seem to have quite a few bad mind readers on this forum that think that JB doesn’t mind losing as long as it is with his preferred players. That’s just crazy.
Yeah I don’t for second believe that JB is ok with losing. But I do think he’s stubborn and can win “his way”. The results say otherwise
 
Does the fact that we currently have a nice class (top 15) signed affect this analysis at all? We’ve had a perfect storm of bad things happen and we’ve still managed to stay relevant. I get that this year sux but I don’t think people realize how hard it is to win at this level. I’m not calling you this but we seem to have quite a few bad mind readers on this forum that think that JB doesn’t mind losing as long as it is with his preferred players. That’s just crazy.
I would argue we're not relevant.

I'm excited about the incoming recruiting class. I have little to no confidence that JB will put those players in position to succeed next season unless he's forced to, ie Jimmy, Buddy, and Cole all move on.

I think it's driving JB nuts to lose so much. But I don't hear him taking responsibility for it. And he's not going to change his approach.

The reality is the way he wants to run the program and coach isn't anywhere near as successful as it once was, and some nice tourney runs glossed over the decline. Now, the decline in the program can't be hidden.

I don't believe he has any more tricks up his sleeve. I just don't. The question is how much worse does the University and AD allow it to get/how far does JB have to bottom out before he gives in?
 
Does the fact that we currently have a nice class (top 15) signed affect this analysis at all?
If you go by average recruit ranking instead of the score 247 uses it is more of a top 30/40 class than a top 15 class. I like the class and I think all five dudes have a real chance of turning into good ACC-level players but it would be surprising, imo, if more than one is a difference maker next season.

If we landed even one of the big fish we thought we had a chance with my perception of the program would be different than what it is right now. Not much different but I would have a bit of hope compared to none at all.
 

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