High Level Picture based on Today's Bracket Matrix

[jncuse]

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017

I am only compiling brackets that were posted today March 6. So it will not be a direct tie in. I don't count old brackets because they are not up to date. For example including the 46 older brackets would make little sense since they do not incorporate yesterday's games.

Current Matrix Standings (based on 71 brackets)

Providence 99%
Xavier 96%
USC 96%
Vanderbilt - 87%
Syracuse - 80%
Rhode Island - 39%
----- IN/OUT --
Illinois St - 38%
Kansas St - 32%
Iowa - 11%
Illinois - 10%
Cal - 4%
Houston - 3%
Georgia - 1%
Clemson - 1%

My perspective on others on the bubble that we will want to follow this week:

1) Teams at 100% that might not be Locks - Wake Forest, Michigan St,
2) Teams with 0% mention that could get in with a run - Indiana (2 Good Wins), Clemson (3 ACC wins), Georgia Tech (3 ACC Wins)
3) Bubble Busters - Middle Tennessee St
4) Multi-Bid Tourney's with Exposure to a Bubble Buster - AAC, A-10

 

[Knicks411]

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017

I am only compiling brackets that were posted today March 6. So it will not be a direct tie in. I don't count old brackets because they are not up to date. For example including the 46 older brackets would make little sense since they do not incorporate yesterday's games.

Current Matrix Standings (based on 61 brackets)

Xavier 95%
USC 95%
Vanderbilt - 87%
Syracuse - 79%
Illinois St - 39%
----- IN/OUT --
Rhode Island - 38%
Kansas St - 34%
Iowa - 13%
Illinois - 11%
Cal - 3%
Georgia - 2%
Houston - 2%

My perspective on others on the bubble that we will want to follow this week:

1) Teams at 100% that might not be Locks - Wake Forest, Michigan St, Providence
2) Teams with 0% mention that could get in with a run - Indiana (2 Good Wins), Clemson (3 ACC wins), Georgia Tech (3 ACC Wins)
3) Bubble Busters - Middle Tennessee St
4) Multi-Bid Tourney's with Exposure to a Bubble Buster - AAC, A-10

I've been reading most of your posts, but not following all of the numbers in every post, based on this, there seems to be a pretty huge gap betwene us (79%) and Illinois State, the current last team in, and then the teams on the other side of the cut line.

This probably doesn't mean anything, but that gap seems pretty large.

 

[NineOneSeven]

All it takes is a couple of conferences to have unexpected winners to knock us out. We are right on the cusp. Best thing we can do is just try to win basketball games.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

All it takes is a couple of conferences to have unexpected winners to knock us out. We are right on the cusp. Best thing we can do is just try to win basketball games.

It's true that bubble busters are the concern, but to jncuse's point, there really aren't many potential bid stealers this year. (hope i don't regret typing this.)

Biggest concerns are in the AAC (such a crappy mid-major conference that just about any swinging john could win that league -- how i would hate to be a full time member of it!) Conference USA (if MTSU loses) or A10. Am I missing any others?

Seems very, very unlikely we get a bid stealer from a power conference, since that would involve an epic run by a team like Clemson or LSU or Texas A&M or Oregon State.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

I've been reading most of your posts, but not following all of the numbers in every post, based on this, there seems to be a pretty huge gap betwene us (79%) and Illinois State, the current last team in, and then the teams on the other side of the cut line.

This probably doesn't mean anything, but that gap seems pretty large.

Those percentages can swing very quickly based on one or two results.

 

[Cusefan0307]

We're going to luck into beating UNC at some point aren't we?

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

One thing that would make me sleep a lot easier is if Rhode Island flamed out early in the A10.

 

[pearl31]

One thing that would make me sleep a lot easier is if Rhode Island flamed out early in the A10.

Yep and same with Kansas St, Iowa, Illinois, Cal... you get the point

but yes, AAC and a10 tourneys scare me the most

 

[RaleighSUfan]

I like using the Bracket Matrix website to get an idea of what people are generally thinking about Syracuse. The one thing I think we all need to realize is that most of the brackets that make up this matrix come from blogs. In other words, just about any idiot can create a blog with their projected NCAA tournament field, but the views of some of these people don't necessarily mean much.

 

[Briancuse]

Yep and same with Kansas St, Iowa, Illinois, Cal... you get the point

but yes, AAC and a10 tourneys scare me the most

I don't get the Illinois thing, they were shaky before the lost to Rutgirls

 

[pearl31]

I don't get the Illinois thing, they were shaky before the lost to Rutgirls

oh they certainly wouldn't get in as of today, but a couple of marquee wins in the b1g tourney would do it

 

[Chris02M]

i dont know how anyone has usc and a free falling xavier above us. wake and vandy i could understand but those 2 i dont see it

 

[shandeezy7]

I don't get Gottlieb's comparison of us and Iowa. Are their wins really that much better than ours? Are Maryland (RPI 25), Wisconsin (RPI 38), Purdue (RPI 18) and Iowa State (RPI 27) really that much better wins than Duke (RPI 14), Virginia (RPI 16), Florida State (RPI 11) and Miami (RPI 41) just because two of them were road wins?

Three top 20 RPI wins is better than one top 20 RPI win, regardless of where the games are played (and the numbers play out the same way when using Kenpom). They've also lost to a number of bad teams, just like us. Just baffling to definitively say that Iowa's wins are better than ours.

 

[nycfan]

i dont know how anyone has usc and a free falling xavier above us. wake and vandy i could understand but those 2 i dont see it

Yes, Xavier is the one that really irks me. They went nearly a month (2/8) between wins (with 6 straight losses in between) and both times the win came against lowly DePaul. And if that's not bad enough, incredibly they now get DePaul again in the BET.

 

[Alsacs]

Gottlieb is trolling us but he is using facts so it isn't lazy.

The Big Ten isn't as strong as the ACC.
Our wins are better. The road wins help them but they don't negate the fact our schedule was tougher and we have the same amount of wins.

Beat Miami we are in.

 

[jncuse]

i dont know how anyone has usc and a free falling xavier above us. wake and vandy i could understand but those 2 i dont see it

You could be, and I hope you are right. I am using the matrix as the "best available proxy" for what the committee is thinking. But I can certainly see us as being ahead of Xavier and USC. Or perhaps the committee hates something about us and has us behind Kansas St.

We can only guess where we are on the s-curve. If we are #2 per above, we must beat Miami there is no other way. If we are #4 or #5 last in per the committee, then we probably have created just enough space to survive a loss.

But let's just win and make it easy.

 

[jncuse]

I like using the Bracket Matrix website to get an idea of what people are generally thinking about Syracuse. The one thing I think we all need to realize is that most of the brackets that make up this matrix come from blogs. In other words, just about any idiot can create a blog with their projected NCAA tournament field, but the views of some of these people don't necessarily mean much.

There is some garbage out there no doubt, but it tends to even out. But in terms of people that are "reputable" or at least put work in and I can tell know their stuff are really all over the place.

We have severe extremes that are obviously throwing people into various directions

 

[Madbiker]

Yep and same with Kansas St, Iowa, Illinois, Cal... you get the point

but yes, AAC and a10 tourneys scare me the most

Yeah like UConn winning the AAC playing on their home court again this year. What a nightmare.

 

[jncuse]

I don't get Gottlieb's comparison of us and Iowa. Are their wins really that much better than ours? Are Maryland (RPI 25), Wisconsin (RPI 38), Purdue (RPI 18) and Iowa State (RPI 27) really that much better wins than Duke (RPI 14), Virginia (RPI 16), Florida State (RPI 11) and Miami (RPI 41) just because two of them were road wins?

They will also probably look at top wins in terms of "seed" lines which should help us.

That being said some committee members will say Gottlieb is right. Some will say he is wrong. There is no guideline for trying to equate quality wins when they are split home/road. The guidelines say consider quality wins and consider where games are played. How do you weight it? It's all feel or judgment.

Or maybe you get the guy who uses the RPI factor to try to equate quality wins. What if they used that? If they used the factors in the RPI -- 1.4 * Road Win + 0.6 * Home Win, they have more top 50 wins. But we have more elite wins because 0*1.4 is still zero.

 

[Knicks411]

I don't get Gottlieb's comparison of us and Iowa. Are their wins really that much better than ours? Are Maryland (RPI 25), Wisconsin (RPI 38), Purdue (RPI 18) and Iowa State (RPI 27) really that much better wins than Duke (RPI 14), Virginia (RPI 16), Florida State (RPI 11) and Miami (RPI 41) just because two of them were road wins?

Three top 20 RPI wins is better than one top 20 RPI win, regardless of where the games are played (and the numbers play out the same way when using Kenpom). They've also lost to a number of bad teams, just like us. Just baffling to definitively say that Iowa's wins are better than ours.

I'd have to dig deeper into the numbers to say for sure, but I think in general, home court advantage is really underrated.

Assuming RPI is a fair gauge of a team's value (for the sake of the argument) a road win @25 (Maryland) and 38 (Wisconsin) are likely just as impressive, if not more, than our 2 best wins, whichever you want to pick.

Just for some context, our 3 big wins are Duke, FSU, and UVA. In ACC play, those teams were 23-4 at home and 11-16 on the road)

 

[Madbiker]

Monmouth again the #1 seed in their conference with a great record, lost the other night to Siena. The griping in the media has already begun to give Monmouth an at large bid. Especially because many in the media (like Jay Bilas) were screaming they got screwed last year not getting in because they also lost their conference tourney. They have become the darling of the sports pundits who have a virtual vendetta against middle P5 teams with a few wins against top 15 teams but get in with double digit loses. There is a lot of pressure being put on the selection committee to leave out middling P5 teams in favor of small conference teams with gaudy 27-6 like records who lose their conference tourney (even though they may not have any top 50 wins). The NCAA is going to eventually give in to this. Hope it doesn't get us this year.

 

[GooseMutt]

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017

I am only compiling brackets that were posted today March 6. So it will not be a direct tie in. I don't count old brackets because they are not up to date. For example including the 46 older brackets would make little sense since they do not incorporate yesterday's games.

Current Matrix Standings (based on 61 brackets)

Xavier 95%
USC 95%
Vanderbilt - 87%
Syracuse - 79%
Illinois St - 39%
----- IN/OUT --
Rhode Island - 38%
Kansas St - 34%
Iowa - 13%
Illinois - 11%
Cal - 3%
Georgia - 2%
Houston - 2%

My perspective on others on the bubble that we will want to follow this week:

1) Teams at 100% that might not be Locks - Wake Forest, Michigan St, Providence
2) Teams with 0% mention that could get in with a run - Indiana (2 Good Wins), Clemson (3 ACC wins), Georgia Tech (3 ACC Wins)
3) Bubble Busters - Middle Tennessee St
4) Multi-Bid Tourney's with Exposure to a Bubble Buster - AAC, A-10

Just want to say thanks jncuse for all the effort and insightful info you provide. One of the best posters here!

 

[SoBeCuse]

I don't get Gottlieb's comparison of us and Iowa. Are their wins really that much better than ours? Are Maryland (RPI 25), Wisconsin (RPI 38), Purdue (RPI 18) and Iowa State (RPI 27) really that much better wins than Duke (RPI 14), Virginia (RPI 16), Florida State (RPI 11) and Miami (RPI 41) just because two of them were road wins?

Three top 20 RPI wins is better than one top 20 RPI win, regardless of where the games are played (and the numbers play out the same way when using Kenpom). They've also lost to a number of bad teams, just like us. Just baffling to definitively say that Iowa's wins are better than ours.

I'm not seeing those Iowa bad losses though. Just one. That game to Omaha. Or UN-Omaha, whatever school that is. Their road wins are better than ours. We have better wins generally than them. I get the argument though if one wants to say Iowa has a better resume. It's just so close but, for sure, they don't have those bad losses like we do. Just need to keep winning.

 

[Scotch]

Monmouth again the #1 seed in their conference with a great record, lost the other night to Siena. The griping in the media has already begun to give Monmouth an at large bid. Especially because many in the media (like Jay Bilas) were screaming they got screwed last year not getting in because they also lost their conference tourney. They have become the darling of the sports pundits who have a virtual vendetta against middle P5 teams with a few wins against top 15 teams but get in with double digit loses. There is a lot of pressure being put on the selection committee to leave out middling P5 teams in favor of small conference teams with gaudy 27-6 like records who lose their conference tourney (even though they may not have any top 50 wins). The NCAA is going to eventually give in to this. Hope it doesn't get us this year.

They better not give in to it, because then the P5 breaks away...

 

[cliftonparksufan]

There is a lot of pressure being put on the selection committee to leave out middling P5 teams in favor of small conference teams with gaudy 27-6 like records who lose their conference tourney (even though they may not have any top 50 wins). The NCAA is going to eventually give in to this. Hope it doesn't get us this year.

The P5 still has a lot of clout on the selection committee. It's appears the only major conference not represented is the Big 12. So if you screw anyone, make it someone from the Big 12.