After a disapointing finish to the UVA game - how does the Orange respond? It's gut check time on the hill as things do not get easier after a tough contest with the Hoos. Where does Syracuse go from here against the Blue Jays, who have two bad losses, but to two very good teams.
On paper I like this match up with Hopkins - the Orange have a strong close defense to contend with Hopkins' strength (their attack) - and I think the Orange midfield should be able to cause problems for the Jays. But the fact remains that Hopkins thumped the Orange last year in a game I felt similarly confident about. So what gives?
I think the defensive matchups are pretty clear - Mellen on Epstein, Bomberry on Williams and Cunningham on Marr. The Blue Jay midfield has been struggling so far this year. Bomberry I don't believe played last year and Williams had a big day. It will be important for the 'Cuse defense to have a bounce back game after last week.
Offensively the match ups with Hopkins are murky - they return almost all their starters but they have given up some big goal totals and their goalie is under 50%. Curious to see who gets the pole between Curry and Trimboli. Hopefully Rhefuss continues his upward trajectory after a rough start to the year, but he will have his hands full with Pat Foley. Others will have to step up.
After last year I think the big x-factor will be at the face-off X. Syracuse had a rough game last year at the dot. Hopkins brings in a new FOGO who has put up pretty good numbers, so should be a real test for Phaup, who will hopefully be back to full strength.
Needless to say, a big game for the Orange who would fall below 500 with Rutgers, Duke and Notre Dame up next. Orange will need to bring a full 60 of HHH to the Dome this Saturday.
Good post as usual. I agree with you in that I do think SU matches up pretty well from a defensive standpoint but you have to wonder if this grind of a schedule is already catching up to them as the D looked worn out in the 4th quarter against UVA.
I disagree slightly in the matchups, I think it will be Mellen on Epstein for sure but Bomberry gets Marr and Desko/Rogers have to again decide if they go Cunningham or Bump Kennedy to take on Cole Williams. Williams is built a bit like Nanticoke but hes taller and faster. I think Bomberry would have a real hard time trying to stay with him. I could be wrong but thats seems like a terrible matchup. Cunningham was OK last week, but Kraus eventually wore him down. Williams is no Kraus but he can be close when he gets his A game going. Personally I would look to go Kennedy here, but I assume staff may roll the dice again with Cunningham. Hopkins from the midfield has really missed Tinney a lot. Their top 3 scorers are far and away the starting attackmen with the 4th guy is also an attackmen, with the 4 guy being the 1st middie in Desimone who has 4 pts but only 1 goal on the year. Unlike UVA there is no Dox Aiken to have to try and account for. Desimone has struggled against LSM's this year and I have no doubt SU will pole him with Fusco. Hopkins will run two mid lines but again midfield is far from their strength. Baskin rotates in at attack I believe and does have 5 goals on the year so he is someone to keep an eye one. They have a frosh in Zinn who is seeing sometime at SSDM who is a middie but hasn't been able to crack the lineup for PT. Kid is pretty fast and he will try and push transition if he can.
Hopkins struggles defensively are a bit of a mystery. They brought back pretty much everyone save for the goalie who wasn't exactly Galloway last year. Darby has apparently held up fairly well but has seen a barrage of shots this year already. Foley is an AA close defender so whether its Solomon or Rehfuss there going to have their hands full. Teams have been attacking their third pole Colwell and the SSDM's. Loyola and Towson especially had success with that strategy and of course having a guy like Spencer helps. Rapine is their #2 and after a pretty good year last year seems to have taken a step back. He will likely draw Solomon. Petro may try and get tricky and double pole the midfield but I don't think it will hold up as JHU has big issues at SSDM despite Danny Jones having 6 CT against Princeton. I expect SU to try and attack whoever draw the shorties, Buttermore getting some 1st line run this game would make a lot of sense.
Hopkins back up FOGO from last year started the year and really struggled. They went to Narewski a 6'3 frosh who has done a nice job and is over 50%. He's apparently not 100% so its evolved into a split similar to ours. Assuming Phaup plays ( I assume he will), I would give SU slight advantage here but I don't expect either side to have a huge advantage. Hopkins wing play runs hot and cold like our own, tough to know what to expect. Porter I think has an advantage in goal that 4th quarter against UVA not withstanding.
What does it mean regarding our chances to win? Tough to say. Hopkins destroyed us at the X last year which is a big reason why they won. We were also missing Solomon and Bomberry and it showed big time. If we can hold our own at the X and generate points like we did last week I like our chances a lot. That said the Hopkins defense is better then what they appear on paper and like SU play a brutal schedule so they are very much battle tested. Hopkins is a better team Defensively then UVA in my opinion but offensively I don't think they are close to UVA's level as their midfield is a huge issue despite a very good and complex attack unit. A big if but if this team can get a second half lead of 4 goals like they did against UVA I would like our chances much more then last week. Penalties will again be an issue, we have a bad habit of coming up on the wrong end when we play Hopkins despite what Hopkins fans will tell you.
Keys for SU will be to limit Epstein, even as a frosh he's probably the best Hopkins offensive player already. Epstein's listed at 5-11 and I think Mellen matches up very well but hard to gauge when he has never seen him before. Don't give Marr open looks - he isn't much of a dodger but will kill you if left open. Williams has turned the ball over a ton and hasn't looked anywhere close to the player he was last year when he had Tinney and Stanwick drawing the attention. He will look to initiate especially if Mellen is locking down Epstein, this matchup is critical.
On our end we need to continue the depth scoring. Despite the loss I thought SU looked the best it has all year on offense (that last possession not withstanding). We need to see more out of Cook, he keeps getting runs at middie and getting a step but he then roll dodges back into his defender for some reason. Not sure what he's trying to accomplish but we need him to break out a bit here. Seebold has gotten some run but looks lost out there, id rather see Cook take the run at attack to be honest. Carlin and Magnan scoring a goal each Sat would be a very positive development.
