Horse Racing 2025

[kirbivore]

Karma chamelion for that creep

 

[upperdeck]

No Triple crown. Sovereignty skipping for the Belmont

I realize its been a thing for awhile now. But the really need to think 3-4 weeks in between all of these going forward. First Sat in May, then 4 weeks and we weeks and that sets some of these up for the big summer meets as well.

On the flip side the Derby winner will be running in Saratoga now.

 

[tbonezone]

given today's political climate is anyone else concerned when sovereignty defeats journalism ?

 

[bigmike]

Belmont is going to be a very interesting race. Looking forward to it..

 

[690West]

No Triple crown. Sovereignty skipping for the Belmont

I realize its been a thing for awhile now. But the really need to think 3-4 weeks in between all of these going forward. First Sat in May, then 4 weeks and we weeks and that sets some of these up for the big summer meets as well.

On the flip side the Derby winner will be running in Saratoga now.

I’d love to hear IthacaBarrel take on this news. Being a naive fan, I think it’s ridiculous to skip the Preakness when you win the derby. Again I don’t know. Just my initial reaction was disgust

 

[cliftonparksufan]

I’d love to hear IthacaBarrel take on this news. Being a naive fan, I think it’s ridiculous to skip the Preakness when you win the derby. Again I don’t know. Just my initial reaction was disgust

I agree, but it should make a great Belmont.

 

[br801]

I’d love to hear IthacaBarrel take on this news. Being a naive fan, I think it’s ridiculous to skip the Preakness when you win the derby. Again I don’t know. Just my initial reaction was disgust

Not ridiculous at all. Very few horses are raced two weeks apart these days. If you want to have your horse for the long term, this is the prudent move. I would have been surprised if Bill Mott, one of the greatest trainers of all time, had taken this horse to Baltimore.

 

[690West]

Not ridiculous at all. Very few horses are raced two weeks apart these days. If you want to have your horse for the long term, this is the prudent move. I would have been surprised if Bill Mott, one of the greatest trainers of all time, had taken this horse to Baltimore.

Yeah. Again I’m not educated on it. The analogy I want to use is would you rest Aaron judge in the World Series because you want to protect him long term? I guess I thought the triple crown was more important than it is these days. Interesting.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Yeah. Again I’m not educated on it. The analogy I want to use is would you rest Aaron judge in the World Series because you want to protect him long term? I guess I thought the triple crown was more important than it is these days. Interesting.

I see both sides. You always want to see the winner of KY derby run in the Preakness. Years ago a two week turnaround for a horse was quite common and not a big deal. 3 races at different tracks in 5 weeks is grueling, it was back in the day and it's worse now. Shipping a horse 3 times in 6-7 weeks, getting them settled in, training them etc is not an easy task so much can go wrong. That said, it's not suppose to be easy and I don't think there is any question that it takes a ton out of the horse. The breed is definitely more fragile than it has ever been (different conversation for different time) In addition with the Belmont being run at Saratoga this year at a 1-1/4" mile versus at Belmont going 1.5 miles it kind of takes away from the mystique in my opinion and yeah if a horse won all three, I would say they are a triple crown winner with an asterisk. Unless you get the 1.5 miles at Belmont, not quite sure it's a true triple crown. That said, I don't think they should change the schedule, it's not suppose to be easy and never has been

I will say that my opinion always starts and stops with anyone who own's a horse is entitled to do whatever they want with that horse when it comes to schedule of their races, etc. It's their horse and as long as the treatment of the animal is ethical and humane I truly have no issues. I have had horses that could run every 2 weeks and ones that needed 4-5 weeks. Good ones and bad ones all different. Keep in mind this isn't some feel good story, Sovereignty isn't some underdog small owner story. He is extremely well bred and is owned and bred by Godolphin, probably the wealthiest and largest group in the game globally, if they aren't they are damn close. Godolphin is owned by the Maktoum family of Dubai. They truly could care less about winning the Preakness, IMO or the spirit of the triple crown. The win last Saturday made the horse a stallion and they will win a couple more races with him. That said, I don't think he's some super horse by any means. The trainer Billy Mott is very well respected, and I am sure they are doing what they feel is best for the horse and it's future but that said, I fully expect the horse to be run 3-4 times and turned into a stallion at years end but who knows. The stallion of Sovereignty "Into Mischief" is known for producing fast younger horses the downside is they are also known for short racing careers due to injuries and soundness issues (I know right but the way the game goes these days) I have serious doubts that an Into Mischief colt would stay sound with 3 races in 5 weeks, it certainly isn't their MO. So I am not at all surprised that they aren't wheeling the horse back in 2 weeks, probably the smart move. IMO, Into Mischief is the poster child for what is wrong with American horse breeding, horses are bred for speed, not endurance or longevity. You make horses with 6 race careers into stallions and breed to mares that never made it to the races and this is what happens. Japanese have taken a much different approach and probably why they are killing it internationally these days. They also train much different that US trainers

Godolphin calls the shots here though, not Mott and they certainly aren't going to cater to the fans or what the public wants because they simply do not care regardless of what is said publicly. I am not sure I would either. That said, if any trainer can keep the horse on the racetrack, Bill Mott would probably be Top 2-3 in the US with the acumen to do exactly that. He's done it with several horses before but the Into Mischief breeding is an issue, IMO

Now, what would I do if owned the horse this year? If the horse came back in good shape, I would run the Preakness and if I was not successful there, I would skip the Belmont and take dead aim at the Travers because other than the Derby there isn't a 3 year old race that most owners would rather win. Winning the Belmont at Saratoga wouldn't mean much to me at all. Rather try to win Haskell and then Travers. Now, when it goes back to Belmont at 1.5 miles that's a different story. The Preakness unfortunately gets the short end of the stick because of all this

 

[upperdeck]

The question they need to ask is how much would the preakness change if they ran it in 3-4 weeks vs 2. You have 3-5 horses than fairly well in the Derby, how many of those would come back. In the past we would have several come back and then also come back in the Belmont. Now more skip race 2 and any that race in the Preakness dont want to come back for the Belmont. Now some of that is the distance for sure.

But if this race was in 4 weeks the odds of seeing the Derby winner would go way up. And those that skip the Preakness would probably not sit around for 8 weeks anyway.

What if they went to 3 off then 4 would that change anything? or 4 then 3?

Who knows.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

The question they need to ask is how much would the preakness change if they ran it in 3-4 weeks vs 2. You have 3-5 horses than fairly well in the Derby, how many of those would come back. In the past we would have several come back and then also come back in the Belmont. Now more skip race 2 and any that race in the Preakness dont want to come back for the Belmont. Now some of that is the distance for sure.

But if this race was in 4 weeks the odds of seeing the Derby winner would go way up. And those that skip the Preakness would probably not sit around for 8 weeks anyway.

What if they went to 3 off then 4 would that change anything? or 4 then 3?

Who knows.

I don't think it needs changing, but if it did, I would do, 1st Saturday in May, 1st Saturday in June and last Saturday in June. Then Haskell/Jim Dandy and Travers.

 

[upperdeck]

It has change over the years. No reason as the horse world changes the schedule can't too. If the goal is to build it the best way is to give horses better chance to win all 3 as well as the better horses to run in it. Skipping the Derby to run in the Preakness has become the norm now

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I don't think it needs changing, but if it did, I would do, 1st Saturday in May, 1st Saturday in June and last Saturday in June. Then Haskell/Jim Dandy and Travers.

I don't think it does either. I will differ to Graham Motion who says every year "it's not suppose to be easy"

 

[IthacaBarrel]

It has change over the years. No reason as the horse world changes the schedule can't too. If the goal is to build it the best way is to give horses better chance to win all 3 as well as the better horses to run in it. Skipping the Derby to run in the Preakness has become the norm now

It has? I was unaware of that

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Just for reference in the last 5 years, Bill Mott is 3 for 58 with horses coming back to race in 14 days or less. Obviously not something he's proficient at doesn't fit his program, probably the right call. His record in triple crown races isn't a highlight of his career but has had some great horses that have run a long time, can't forget the great Cigar

 

[Newhouser]

Just for reference in the last 5 years, Bill Mott is 3 for 58 with horses coming back to race in 14 days or less. Obviously not something he's proficient at and he is a hall of fame trainer, probably the right call

I think this is the key point. They don't think they'd win.

I too don't think the schedule needs to change - it isn't supposed to be easy, and any horse that can do it in the modern era should be lauded.
Problem is the sport needs the Triple Crown buzz because its the only time Joe Public pays attention. I agree that the Travers is the more coveted crown than the Belmont but the average Joe doesn't follow the Travers.

The owners don't care about growing the sport just their wallets.

Flightline is my example - great horse, was getting some buzz and media awareness educating the non horse player, and their owners retire him for breeding. No doubt it was there right to do so, but no doubt it was a missed opportunity for the sport.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I think this is the key point. They don't think they'd win.

I too don't think the schedule needs to change - it isn't supposed to be easy, and any horse that can do it in the modern era should be lauded.
Problem is the sport needs the Triple Crown buzz because its the only time Joe Public pays attention. I agree that the Travers is the more coveted crown than the Belmont but the average Joe doesn't follow the Travers.

The owners don't care about growing the sport just their wallets.

Flightline is my example - great horse, was getting some buzz and media awareness educating the non horse player, and their owners retire him for breeding. No doubt it was there right to do so, but no doubt it was a missed opportunity for the sport.

Flightline had a lot of issues staying sound wasn't a very difficult choice. Won the breeder's cup classic in a romp not much to do from there with a horse that could probably run once every few months at best. 5 ownership groups on the horse as well so a lot of cooks in the kitchen. 6 races in 2 years at age 3 and 4.

But people have flocked to breed to him, interesting to see what the babies do next year on the track and it's not just winning a few 2 year old races early

 

[bigmike]

Good conversation.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Sovereignty (KY)​

TB, B, C, foaled February 22, 2022​

( Into Mischief - Crowned, by Bernardini )​

Into Mischief- Total of 6 Starts. Great stallion but known for producing good early starters but many the fizzle out at an early age due to injury or soundness. There are always exceptions here but the reputation is what it is. Into Mischief probably considered top US Stallion by most

Crowned ( the mare) 0 Starts as a racehorse, well bred and doesn't 100% mean can't produce sound horses but it all adds up
Bernardini ( Stallion of the mare) had 8 starts but what racehorse.

and we wonder why these horses can't run every few weeks anymore. Regally bred to be a fast racehorse but not a surprise that the horse probably has a few issues as most do

Have to remember an owner like Godolphin has access to best stallions and mares, their own stallion farm in KY with 9-10 of their own and countless mares with tremendous bloodlines as well.

 

[bigmike]

I’m curious about something - winning the Derby creates a big value bump for a stallion. What would winning a triple crown do? Obviously, in this case with all the factors discussed here, the GodolphinMott have decided it is not worth the risk.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I’m curious about something - winning the Derby creates a big value bump for a stallion. What would winning a triple crown do? Obviously, in this case with all the factors discussed here, the GodolphinMott have decided it is not worth the risk.

Mandaloun was a godolphin horse as well. (also an Into Mischief) Who won the KY derby by disqualification and he didn't run until the Haskell after the KY derby. Obviously, not something they tend to put much value on
It's huge for horse that can win classic races, 2 of 3 is great but if you can win the Derby and the normal Belmont at that distance that is great. Then you have the classic pedigree as the stallion and can bred to mares that show more speed types. Stallions that are two turn type horse are always more sought after other than Into Mischief who is rather rare in that he was more a middle distance type with a very short career but that is why mares with two turn pedigree are bred to him. ( ie: a Bernardini mare)

the biggest question most big buyers ask when looking at horses at auction, is do they have the breeding to get two turns or 1-1/4" on dirt. That is why winning the classics or big route races is huge for breeding.

​

 

[djcon57]

With Rodriguez and lack of massive speed, I don't think Sovereignty would have won anyway. Watch the Florida Derby result with Tappan Street.

 

[storange]

Made about $180. Not bad.

Ditto , I have no expertise just pure luck.

 

[upperdeck]

It has? I was unaware of that

About 10 yrs ago. 75% of preakness starters ran in the Derby. Now its about 30%.

Huge shift in how the horses and being entered and run.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

About 10 yrs ago. 75% of preakness starters ran in the Derby. Now its about 30%.

Huge shift in how the horses and being entered and run.

Ok, I thought your point was that horses who have the points to run in the derby are now bypassing the derby to run in the Preakness. That certainly is not the case nor will it ever be. Agreed that most horses that run in Preakness don't run in the derby but almost all don't have the points to run in the Derby either so it's not really a choice.

I think horses that don’t run well in the derby certainly won’t come back to run in the Preakness unless your D Wayne Lukas.

If trainers skip the Preakness after a Derby start, which many do, they can map out a pretty easy schedule for their 3 year old as long as there are no snags. Derby/ Belmont/ Haskell or Jim Dandy/ Traver’s/ PA Derby maybe/ breeders. You squeeze them during the triple crown and it could bite you later in there 3 year old campaign. I get it. At the end of the day, most owners would rather be at Saratoga watching their horse run in the Travers than at Pimlico watching them run in the Preakness. 3 year olds are still very young horses as well which the general public does not understand. You can also start shipping to Saratoga mid April if you want to train up there as well and for those wanting to run at the Belmont/ Dandy or Haskell/ Travers it's really nice the past couple of years