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Message: [QUOTE="LaggyJon, post: 2443052, member: 6318"] A few thoughts (more about his draft decision process, not his talent): 1. The conventional wisdom used to be to leave if you're a first rounder, largely due to the guaranteed contract and the likelihood you were booking a plane ticket to Europe if you weren't a first rounder. However, given the evolution (and lack of stigma) of the G-League, the availability of affiliate/2-way contracts, and the like, I suspect that it'll be more common for players to leave even if they don't think they'll go in the first. It's already starting to happen - looking at the second round of last year's draft there were a bunch of sophomores picked that I don't recall ever being mentioned as likely 1st rounders. Maybe “second round pick with a 2-way contract and a verbal promise to spend 45 days with the NBA team” is the new “first round guarantee.” This will happen to us eventually, and I predict several posters here will have coronaries arguing about it in the thread. 2. The idea of “playing your way into the lottery” as an upperclassman is almost extinct. [IMG]https://preview.ibb.co/gdDDRb/upperclassmen.png[/IMG] In last year’s draft, zero upperclassmen were drafted in the lottery. The first senior wasn’t selected until pick 29. The first 11 picks were freshmen (plus Ntilikina, an 18-year-old foreign player). It’s been five years since there’s been more than one junior selected in the lottery, and while I wouldn’t put much stock in mock drafts at this point of the season, there seems to be only one that is being considered this year (Bridges from Villanova). There’s always a contingent that says “bet on yourself and come back!” every time a player is considering going pro, but for most players that would seem to be a bad bet. [/QUOTE]

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