how does 475 yards per game sound next year (hear me out)

[Millhouse]

I took every team over the last 5 years and found the biggest year to year improvement in yards per play for each program.

We were at 5.1 yards per play this year. 20% improvement is 6.12 (43 teams have done that at some point in the last 5 years). 25% = 6.4 (28 teams). 30% = 6.6 (18 teams). 35% = 6.9 (8 teams)

Let's go with 30% improvement in yards per play. If we still only run 62.6 plays per game (no way), that gets us to 413 yards per game. We had 320 yards per game.

If we get 15% more plays (conservative - faster pace + more first down conversions), that's 475 yards per game.

This is not outrageous. This team was young and at times they were explosive. Young talent + much faster pace + best system in the country. It sounds crazy to go from 320 to 475 but when you break into yards per play and number of plays, it's not nuts. 18 teams have improved that much per play at some point the last 5 years. and i think a 15% increase in plays per game is not crazy either.

that gets us right back to 2012 with probably better scoring (2012 was unusual for it's gap between points and yards rankings)

 

[SmilinBob]

Your last statement was my first question...putting the ball past the 6 point line. That 2012 team was a 20 to 20 yard line machine but stalled big time once it got in the red zone. Do you feel 2016 will be that much more different? Why out of curiousity?

 

[Millhouse]

Your last statement was my first question...putting the ball past the 6 point line. That 2012 team was a 20 to 20 yard line machine but stalled big time once it got in the red zone. Do you feel 2016 will be that much more different? Why out of curiousity?

yards and points are strongly correlated. i think 2012 was unusual. USC had some bad punts, Stony brook was a million yards and not that many points, and Rutgers and Minn were just generally stinkers.

 

[Chip]

We can never pull this off against ACC defenses.

Something I might have said before bowl season. We should aim higher.

 

[Millhouse]

We can never pull this off against ACC defenses.

Something I might have said before bowl season. We should aim higher.

i want a 30% improvement every year. in a few years we'll be running 150 plays at 15 yards per

 

[SmilinBob]

yards and points are strongly correlated. i think 2012 was unusual. USC had some bad punts, Stony brook was a million yards and not that many points, and Rutgers and Minn were just generally stinkers.

I suppose that 2012 team offensively was good at Y and X but not Z and I'm hopping that this one will have A-Z at their disposal even though I'd venture a guess that the first 1 1/2 years will be more limited due to learning a new system and getting the talent to fit it. I'm curious on how HCDB is going to use the receivers on this current team and how they can get 6 more frequently inside the 20.

 

[Finwad32]

I took every team over the last 5 years and found the biggest year to year improvement in yards per play for each program.

We were at 5.1 yards per play this year. 20% improvement is 6.12 (43 teams have done that at some point in the last 5 years). 25% = 6.4 (28 teams). 30% = 6.6 (18 teams). 35% = 6.9 (8 teams)

Let's go with 30% improvement in yards per play. If we still only run 62.6 plays per game (no way), that gets us to 413 yards per game. We had 320 yards per game.

If we get 15% more plays (conservative - faster pace + more first down conversions), that's 475 yards per game.

This is not outrageous. This team was young and at times they were explosive. Young talent + much faster pace + best system in the country. It sounds crazy to go from 320 to 475 but when you break into yards per play and number of plays, it's not nuts. 18 teams have improved that much per play at some point the last 5 years. and i think a 15% increase in plays per game is not crazy either.

that gets us right back to 2012 with probably better scoring (2012 was unusual for it's gap between points and yards rankings)

43 teams have improved 20% over the last 5 seasons? That would be 8.6 teams per season. That's highly above average improvement if less than 5% of the country could do it.

If anybody gets those gains, it's this system, but I'd be fine with a more modest ypp gain if we could get to 75 plays per game in year 1. I think it'll be much easier to run more plays per game based on style alone. Which is extremely doable at their pace.

I mean BG ran nearly 84 per game this year.

No matter what, the #'s are going to look drastically improved this year.

 

[OrangeJohn]

Your last statement was my first question...putting the ball past the 6 point line. That 2012 team was a 20 to 20 yard line machine but stalled big time once it got in the red zone. Do you feel 2016 will be that much more different? Why out of curiousity?

That was the problem the Houston Oilers had with the run and shoot. They would break all kinds of records for yardage that never translated into touchdowns because they were dead last in red zone production. The gimmick of spreading the defense doesn't work once you're inside the 20 yard line and working on a shortened field. That's when your lack of meathead fullbacks and tight ends bites you in the ass. You end up settling for field goals.

 

[721Comstock]

That was the problem the Houston Oilers had with the run and shoot. They would break all kinds of records for yardage that never translated into touchdowns because they were dead last in red zone production. The gimmick of spreading the defense doesn't work once you're inside the 20 yard line and working on a shortened field. That's when your lack of meathead fullbacks and tight ends bites you in the ass. You end up settling for field goals.

The trick is to score from OUTSIDE the red zone. Skip right over that pesky part of the field.
Dino's O gives us a chance to do that regularly.

 

[Millhouse]

43 teams have improved 20% over the last 5 seasons? That would be 8.6 teams per season. That's highly above average improvement if less than 5% of the country could do it.

If anybody gets those gains, it's this system, but I'd be fine with a more modest ypp gain if we could get to 75 plays per game in year 1. I think it'll be much easier to run more plays per game based on style alone. Which is extremely doable at their pace.

I mean BG ran nearly 84 per game this year.

No matter what, the #'s are going to look drastically improved this year.

43 teams have improved 20% one time over the last 5 seasons. i took each teams yearly improvements and grabbed the max for each school. so it's not 20% every year for 5 years, it's just 20% any one of those years

edit - i thought you misread my post when i was the one misreading yours.

i think we are in a good spot to be one of those teams. youth, injuries, major change in scheme

 

[Millhouse]

That was the problem the Houston Oilers had with the run and shoot. They would break all kinds of records for yardage that never translated into touchdowns because they were dead last in red zone production. The gimmick of spreading the defense doesn't work once you're inside the 20 yard line and working on a shortened field. That's when your lack of meathead fullbacks and tight ends bites you in the ass. You end up settling for field goals.

bowling green was 7th in the country in red zone td % this year

baylor was 2nd

 

[KaiserUEO]

The trick is to score from OUTSIDE the red zone. Skip right over that pesky part of the field.
Dino's O gives us a chance to do that regularly.

or as Howard Cosell once magically spoke during a particularly crappy Giants Monday Night Football game...'if you like Field Goals, boy have we got a game for you'...

 

[bpo57]

We can never pull this off against ACC defenses.

Something I might have said before bowl season. We should aim higher.

To your point - ACC giving up close to 45 points a game against opposition this bowl season. The B12 is jealous.

 

[OrangeTarheel]

That was the problem the Houston Oilers had with the run and shoot. They would break all kinds of records for yardage that never translated into touchdowns because they were dead last in red zone production. The gimmick of spreading the defense doesn't work once you're inside the 20 yard line and working on a shortened field. That's when your lack of meathead fullbacks and tight ends bites you in the ass. You end up settling for field goals.

From what I've seen posted here Babers has had some bruising o-lines and running backs to complement his passing game. That is pretty meat head-y-ish.

 

[Chip]

To your point - ACC giving up close to 45 points a game against opposition this bowl season. The B12 is jealous.

Imagine if there wasn't a snowstorm in El Paso (how often does that happen) or if all of aTm's QBs didn't transfer (how often does that happen).

Curious to see how Houston's offense does against FSU today.

 

[Millhouse]

Imagine if there wasn't a snowstorm in El Paso (how often does that happen) or if all of aTm's QBs didn't transfer (how often does that happen).

Curious to see how Houston's offense does against FSU today.

washington state with 9 wins and a bowl victory this year. much tougher to goof on mike leach these days

you gotta love college football. you have WSU throwing for 5000 and rushing for 1000 and georgia southern rushing for about 5000 and throwing less than 1000, both winning bowl games

 

[OrangeJohn]

bowling green was 7th in the country in red zone td % this year

baylor was 2nd

Good news for us if Dino can replicate that here against Clemson, FSU, Louisville, Notre Dame, etc.

 

[721Comstock]

washington state with 9 wins and a bowl victory this year. much tougher to goof on mike leach these days

you gotta love college football. you have WSU throwing for 5000 and rushing for 1000 and georgia southern rushing for about 5000 and throwing less than 1000, both winning bowl games

It ain't what you do it's the way that you do it
It ain't what you do it's the way that you do it
It ain't what you do it's the way that you do it
And that's what get results.

 

[Millhouse]

Good news for us if Dino can replicate that here against Clemson, FSU, Louisville, Notre Dame, etc.

etc being pitt bc nc state wake forest usf uconn colgate virginia tech

 

[djorange1989]

Hey we may not be able to put up the numbers Millhouse is suggesting when we play FSU, Clemson and ND but the other 9 games? Sure, and I will take that

 

[Millhouse]

Hey we may not be able to put up the numbers Millhouse is suggesting when we play FSU, Clemson and ND but the other 9 games? Sure, and I will take that

http://www.cfbstats.com/2015/team/71/total/offense/gamelog.html
557 against tennessee, 692 against maryland, 579 against memphis to start the year

 

[djorange1989]

http://www.cfbstats.com/2015/team/71/total/offense/gamelog.html
557 against tennessee, 692 against maryland, 579 against memphis to start the year

Touché sir. Then again Maryland was worse than us defensively if that is possible.

 

[Millhouse]

Touché sir. Then again Maryland was worse than us defensively if that is possible.

it's not going to be as fun to rag on maryland anymore, i like shafer too much. where did edsall end up?

 

[djorange1989]

it's not going to be as fun to rag on maryland anymore, i like shafer too much. where did edsall end up?

With Shafer, Durkin and London they won't be laughable on defense in the future. Edsall is unemployed at the moment. Maybe he will use his great charisma and charm and do some TV work (yes that was sarcasm).

 

[GoSU96]

washington state with 9 wins and a bowl victory this year. much tougher to goof on mike leach these days

you gotta love college football. you have WSU throwing for 5000 and rushing for 1000 and georgia southern rushing for about 5000 and throwing less than 1000, both winning bowl games

Good for him, a winning season in his fourth year.