how does 475 yards per game sound next year (hear me out)

[djorange1989]

Good for him, a winning season in his fourth year.

At that school that is pretty good. It's harder to bring kids to Pullman than just about anywhere, including SU. I am not a huge Leach fan but two bowls in 4 years there considering the mess he inherited is very good.

 

[OburgCuse]

I took every team over the last 5 years and found the biggest year to year improvement in yards per play for each program.

We were at 5.1 yards per play this year. 20% improvement is 6.12 (43 teams have done that at some point in the last 5 years). 25% = 6.4 (28 teams). 30% = 6.6 (18 teams). 35% = 6.9 (8 teams)

Let's go with 30% improvement in yards per play. If we still only run 62.6 plays per game (no way), that gets us to 413 yards per game. We had 320 yards per game.

If we get 15% more plays (conservative - faster pace + more first down conversions), that's 475 yards per game.

This is not outrageous. This team was young and at times they were explosive. Young talent + much faster pace + best system in the country. It sounds crazy to go from 320 to 475 but when you break into yards per play and number of plays, it's not nuts. 18 teams have improved that much per play at some point the last 5 years. and i think a 15% increase in plays per game is not crazy either.

that gets us right back to 2012 with probably better scoring (2012 was unusual for it's gap between points and yards rankings)

What were the differences in yards, yards per play, and # of plays for EIU/BG year before Babers and Babers year 1? Those will give us a little bit of an idea of learning curve as well

 

[leftytg]

What were the differences in yards, yards per play, and # of plays for EIU/BG year before Babers and Babers year 1? Those will give us a little bit of an idea of learning curve as well

good question. I dug around a little.

Bowling Green (2013 = prior coach, 2014-2015 = Babers):
yards per play:
2013: 6.1
2014: 5.2
2015: 6.5

plays per game:
2013: 73.2
2014: 81.5
2015: 83.7

yards per game:
2013: 459.4
2014: 432.9
2015: 546.8

Eastern Illinois (2011 = prior coach, 2012-13 = Babers):
Yards per play:
2011: 5.1
2012: 5.6
2013: 6.8

plays per game:
2011: 63.5
2012: 84.25
2013: 87.1

yards per game:
2011: 325.9
2012: 470.9
2013: 589.5

edit: forgot yards/game

 

[Chip]

Good for him, a winning season in his fourth year.

Choking on the irony.

Took over a program in the crapper with about every disadvantage you can think of relative to their peer group, went to a bowl in year 2, setback in year 3, 9 win season in year 4.

If he lands an NFL job, it would just be creepy.

 

[SUFan44]

I took every team over the last 5 years and found the biggest year to year improvement in yards per play for each program.

We were at 5.1 yards per play this year. 20% improvement is 6.12 (43 teams have done that at some point in the last 5 years). 25% = 6.4 (28 teams). 30% = 6.6 (18 teams). 35% = 6.9 (8 teams)

Let's go with 30% improvement in yards per play. If we still only run 62.6 plays per game (no way), that gets us to 413 yards per game. We had 320 yards per game.

If we get 15% more plays (conservative - faster pace + more first down conversions), that's 475 yards per game.

This is not outrageous. This team was young and at times they were explosive. Young talent + much faster pace + best system in the country. It sounds crazy to go from 320 to 475 but when you break into yards per play and number of plays, it's not nuts. 18 teams have improved that much per play at some point the last 5 years. and i think a 15% increase in plays per game is not crazy either.

that gets us right back to 2012 with probably better scoring (2012 was unusual for it's gap between points and yards rankings)

In the 4 years Babers has been a head coach, the lowest number of plays that his teams have run per game is 81.5. The lowest yards per play number that he has had is 5.2.

Marrying those numbers, you get a rough estimate of 423.8 yards per game as the low end of where the offense should be next year.

Taking into account improvement in yards per play, based on natural progression of our skill position players and I could see a scenario where this team easily averages 450-475 yard per game.

All that being said, if we average 400 yards per game I would be ecstatic compared to what we were subjected to the last 15 years. And would put us middle of the pack in the country in the first year of a system that is designed to take two years to fully implement.

 

[RF2044]

I took every team over the last 5 years and found the biggest year to year improvement in yards per play for each program.

We were at 5.1 yards per play this year. 20% improvement is 6.12 (43 teams have done that at some point in the last 5 years). 25% = 6.4 (28 teams). 30% = 6.6 (18 teams). 35% = 6.9 (8 teams)

Let's go with 30% improvement in yards per play. If we still only run 62.6 plays per game (no way), that gets us to 413 yards per game. We had 320 yards per game.

If we get 15% more plays (conservative - faster pace + more first down conversions), that's 475 yards per game.

This is not outrageous. This team was young and at times they were explosive. Young talent + much faster pace + best system in the country. It sounds crazy to go from 320 to 475 but when you break into yards per play and number of plays, it's not nuts. 18 teams have improved that much per play at some point the last 5 years. and i think a 15% increase in plays per game is not crazy either.

that gets us right back to 2012 with probably better scoring (2012 was unusual for it's gap between points and yards rankings)

I can't envision any scenario where our personnel will be optimized for the new system next year, but it isn't a stretch to think that competent offensive coaching could yield significantly improved offensive production.

I don't know that it will hit 475, but 400? 425? Maybe more? We do have a lot of nice pieces of the puzzle for these coaches to work with.

 

[RF2044]

In the 4 years Babers has been a head coach, the lowest number of plays that his teams have run per game is 81.5. The lowest yards per play number that he has had is 5.2.

Marrying those numbers, you get a rough estimate of 423.8 yards per game as the low end of where the offense should be next year.

Taking into account improvement in yards per play, based on natural progression of our skill position players and I could see a scenario where this team easily averages 450-475 yard per game.

All that being said, if we average 400 yards per game I would be ecstatic compared to what we were subjected to the last 15 years. And would put us middle of the pack in the country in the first year of a system that is designed to take two years to fully implement.

Great post.

Another reason to get excited about hiring a coach with a proven track record of success instead of hiring someone unproven as a HC who might require OTJ training. Babers is legit, and his system is legit. He's going to light up the Dome. Given our program's current state, we couldn't have landed / dreamed of a better hire.

 

[Fjoinkay]

I think SU was really close to averaging 400 yards a game this year. Unfortunately, the defense was very young and could never get off the field. The QB situation was also a carousel once again due to injuries, and Irv was never the same after the injury (he seemed to dislike contact). I think next season 450 yards a game is a reasonable target and 475 is very possible. SU needs to be able to score points with those yards, and the defense needs to be better. I think the defense will improve simply because this season they were so young and green.

 

[RF2044]

I think SU was really close to averaging 400 yards a game this year. Unfortunately, the defense was very young and could never get off the field. The QB situation was also a carousel once again due to injuries, and Irv was never the same after the injury (he seemed to dislike contact). I think next season 450 yards a game is a reasonable target and 475 is very possible. SU needs to be able to score points with those yards, and the defense needs to be better. I think the defense will improve simply because this season they were so young and green.

Agreed [in the main]. The elephant in the room this year was number of plays. The offense--while up and down a bit, due to the injury factor you mentioned--was more than adequate with Dungey at the helm. Our MAIN problem was the inability to get the ball out of the opposing team's hands back over to our offense.

 

[upperdeck]

we could get the yards up just by running plays faster even with a bad D.. could also mean we allow more points though..

i hope the young DBs play just a bit better and the offense makes a few more plays.. we run plays faster so we get 3-4 more possessions a game and the D makes one more stop faster thats easily 100 yds a game, now if the offense is actually better on top of that you can make the leap top 450.

we already know you cant get 450 by slowing it down and playing bad D,

lets hope that means 2 more scores a game too.. jumping into the low 30's is good for 1 more win, mid 30's we can find 2..

 

[Fjoinkay]

Agreed [in the main]. The elephant in the room this year was number of plays. The offense--while up and down a bit, due to the injury factor you mentioned--was more than adequate with Dungey at the helm. Our MAIN problem was the inability to get the ball out of the opposing team's hands back over to our offense.

Yeah, it was a perfect storm against the coaching staff. The main weather pattern being the new AD. No one can fault Coyle for wanting to find his own guy. Any school that hires a new AD wants a guy that is going to be able to hire a football coach, and it was always very likely that Coyle would go in that direction. In pure football terms the defense was very young this year and it showed from from game two on. The injuries at QB the past two seasons were just bizarre. I think T-Hunt being healthy would have been a good thing. Dungey has great potential, but he was a true freshman and at times it really showed. Even more than that he was injured. The Central Michigan hit that gave him his first concussion was unusual to say the least. I thought Mahoney played well. I wouldn't rule out Mahoney as a possible starter for next year. But it was just so much change all the time. I really hope Lester gets another shot at OC sometime soon, because I don't think any OC for 19 games starting 7 or 8 different QBs due to injury during that span would do very well unless maybe he is at Bama or Ohio State. I thought Lester handled the circumstances very well. I think Schafe is a winner and a class act. He also loved Syracuse.

 

[upperdeck]

last week the nfl game had a stat that showed NFL teams had played 4 qbs in a year 3 times in something like 30 years.. we did it twice in a row.

 

[Fjoinkay]

last week the nfl game had a stat that showed NFL teams had played 4 qbs in a year 3 times in something like 30 years.. we did it twice in a row.

Let's hope it doesn't happen again in 30 years or more!

 

[RoysRunts]

bowling green was 7th in the country in red zone td % this year

baylor was 2nd

Babers had Tight ends and Fullbacks in his offense one + for him