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[QUOTE="IthacaMatt, post: 2905517, member: 405"]
We averaged 24 regular season wins for the first 30 years of Boeheim's career.  That's 24-7  (some years it was 24-6 before these preseason exempt tournaments added in the 4th game).

So let's start with that as a baseline - 24-7 regular season is the AVERAGE.

We had a stretch of about 5 years where we were averaging almost 30 wins a year, and since then, we've been averaging about 10 or 11 losses per year, so let's go with the earlier historical average.

So what is our reasonable expectation for the conference?  I would expect a top 4 finish and usually getting to the semifinal round of the conference tournament.  So let's add in a 2-1 conference tournament record.

Then there is the NCAA.  Our expectation has always been to make it to the second weekend, and then let's see what happens.  The Sweet 16 has often been the end of the road.  If we go farther, it's gravy, and if we don't make it that far, then it's a disappointment.  So add in another 2-1 record in the NCAA tournament.

That gives us a baseline reasonable expectation as a program of going:

28-9 Final season record.  ACC tournament semifinals, NCAA Sweet 16.

That should be our average year.  That means that once or twice a decade, we should have a Final Four quality team, and even in a moderately bad year, we should still make the tournament.

Being on the bubble 5 years in a row is underachieving.  Once or twice in a decade is OK, but not every stinking year.  I think we've only won 1 ACC tournament game in 5 tries so far.

We've had a couple good runs in the NCAA tournament this decade, but those have been overachieving teams who played a good (gimmick) defense that gives us an advantage on a short turnaround.
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