How I see the future of the SEC, B1G, ACC looking

[Alsacs]

By that logic the Pac-12 won't add Oklahoma State and to get Oklahoma/Texas they will need to take Oklahoma State and a 4th team which unless its Kansas won't be academically top 100. I don't think the Pac-12 will take both Nevada and UNLV, but 1 of them isn't out of the question. It gets the Pac-12 network into a new state Nevada(and NV is a growing state as during the last census they gained an EV), and creates new revenue for the entire conference. If UNLV football improved they would have a chance IMO as their basketball was ranked in the top 10 by ESPN when they did their all-time rankings a couple years ago. Boise State needs to improve its academics greatly to get invited, by New Mexico and BYU would pass the academic tests, and if BYU would get off there high-horse about Sunday I think they would bring a 60k seat stadium and would bring value along with New Mexico to the Pac-12 and its network.

Pods for this Pac-12 would be
Pod 1
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State

Pod 2
University of Southern California
University of California-Los Angeles
University of California-Berkley
Stanford

Pod 3
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
New Mexico

Pod 4
Boise State
University of Nevada-Las Vegas
Brigham Young University
Utah

 

[Resonator]

The 4 California schools and the University of Washington can claim good academics. Outside of that, the PAC12 already has 9 other schools not in the top 100. The Nevada schools are not barn burners academically. True. But neither are Utah, Arizona State, Washington State, Oregon State, etc.

You are 100 percent correct. The four California schools, and, Washington, are top notch academic institutions. The rest are not even close.

And, two of those California schools, Stanford and Cal, are 100 percent against adding BYU, or, any school with religious affiliation of any kind. They flat out gave a thumbs down to the possibility of Baylor coming with UT-TTU-OU-OSU a couple of years back.

BYU has a better football history, and, an overall better athletic department, than any school in the Pac-12 not from California. They are at least as deserving of an invite as freaking Utah or Colorado.

If the Pac ever decides to expand to 16, and Texas is off of the table, their options out west are severely limited.

 

[SU2NASA]

I'm hearing Oklahoma to the Big Ten.

 

[HtownOrange]

A few thoughts:

1) The Big 12 has the smallest population footprint of all major conferences. When this TV deal ends, they will not likely get the same generosity as they have now. The B1G will get a new deal in a couple years, the SEC is reworking their deal now, the ACC has a new deal and has 5-year look-ins.
2) Texas is NOT interested in the SEC and has made this known. The SEC would take Texas. If Texas leaves the Big 12, they will go to a conference with academic peers, a.k.a. PAC 12, ACC, or B1G.
3) The PAC 12 is not interested in lowering their academics, they will go for status quo by taking Texas (academic giant, large state population), OU and two others, but OU alone is not good enough (Think Stanford, UCLA, USC Cal). No religious schools need apply, nor does AFA, (Again, think, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Cal). BYU, SMU, TCU and Baylor are NOT going to the PAC 12. Also, BSU, UNLV, UNM, etc. are not likely to bring enough academics/population cache for an invite, if OU is not enough with a national TV draw and 4 million in population, not sure why anyone thinks the others are good/prime candidates for the PAC 12.
4) OU can go SEC, they had an invite and decided to stay with Texas. They can ride Texas' coattails or go SEC. Any conference that gets two will hit the lottery.
5) TTech, OSU, ISU and KSU lack academic draw for the PAC 12, ACC and B1G. They will only go to one of these conferences if Texas drags them along.
6) If the Big 12 is to survive beyond their current deal, they will need to expand their footprint, and do so significantly. Cincy, USF/UCF, and 2-4 more might be enough to stay relevant. UT's ego is big enough to try something of this nature. However, if the LHN does not become profitable to ESPN, they may no continue it.
7) If Texas really wants the Big 12 to survive, they may change the LHN to the Big 12 network.

In short, I think the current set up is likely to exist until near the end of the current TV deals. Texas and OU will decide what to do at that time. Also, ESPN and Fox will determine whether an expanded Big 12 footprint is sufficient for another network and big money.

 

[Alsacs]

A few thoughts:

1) The Big 12 has the smallest population footprint of all major conferences. When this TV deal ends, they will not likely get the same generosity as they have now. The B1G will get a new deal in a couple years, the SEC is reworking their deal now, the ACC has a new deal and has 5-year look-ins.
2) Texas is NOT interested in the SEC and has made this known. The SEC would take Texas. If Texas leaves the Big 12, they will go to a conference with academic peers, a.k.a. PAC 12, ACC, or B1G.
3) The PAC 12 is not interested in lowering their academics, they will go for status quo by taking Texas (academic giant, large state population), OU and two others, but OU alone is not good enough (Think Stanford, UCLA, USC Cal). No religious schools need apply, nor does AFA, (Again, think, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Cal). BYU, SMU, TCU and Baylor are NOT going to the PAC 12. Also, BSU, UNLV, UNM, etc. are not likely to bring enough academics/population cache for an invite, if OU is not enough with a national TV draw and 4 million in population, not sure why anyone thinks the others are good/prime candidates for the PAC 12.
4) OU can go SEC, they had an invite and decided to stay with Texas. They can ride Texas' coattails or go SEC. Any conference that gets two will hit the lottery.
5) TTech, OSU, ISU and KSU lack academic draw for the PAC 12, ACC and B1G. They will only go to one of these conferences if Texas drags them along.
6) If the Big 12 is to survive beyond their current deal, they will need to expand their footprint, and do so significantly. Cincy, USF/UCF, and 2-4 more might be enough to stay relevant. UT's ego is big enough to try something of this nature. However, if the LHN does not become profitable to ESPN, they may no continue it.
7) If Texas really wants the Big 12 to survive, they may change the LHN to the Big 12 network.

In short, I think the current set up is likely to exist until near the end of the current TV deals. Texas and OU will decide what to do at that time. Also, ESPN and Fox will determine whether an expanded Big 12 footprint is sufficient for another network and big money.

All of this pretty good analysis, I may go thru each line and give my opinions if anyone cares, but thru and thru its pretty accurate and probably true. Maybe Oklahoma/Oklahoma State go to the SEC and Texas/Kansas go to the B1G, and from above flip Texas and Oklahoma in SEC pod 1 and B1G pod 3 which would be funny because then Nebraska would have to deal with Longhorns again.

 

[rrlbees]

I'm hearing after the B12 dies, WVU is joining the PAC12.

Sent using my Commodore 64

 

[HtownOrange]

All of this pretty good analysis, I may go thru each line and give my opinions if anyone cares, but thru and thru its pretty accurate and probably true. Maybe Oklahoma/Oklahoma State go to the SEC and Texas/Kansas go to the B1G, and from above flip Texas and Oklahoma in SEC pod 1 and B1G pod 3 which would be funny because then Nebraska would have to deal with Longhorns again.

That would be an ultimate irony...and fun for us to watch.

 

[HtownOrange]

I'm hearing after the B12 dies, WVU is joining the PAC12.

Sent using my Commodore 64

Please don't get the Dude started; though, I can see why the Arizona and Oregon schools would want WVU, so their academics aren't the dregs of the PAC12.

 

[Btstimpy]

A few thoughts:

2) Texas is NOT interested in the SEC and has made this known. The SEC would take Texas. If Texas leaves the Big 12, they will go to a conference with academic peers, a.k.a. PAC 12, ACC, or B1G.

If this is truly the case, then the presence of Notre Dame and access to Florida will make the ACC highly competitive in landing Texas over the Big Ten if they do ever leave the Big XII. The issue would be the Long Horn Network. But it is with ESPN, who the ACC will be with. There could be an arrangement worked out.

If it were to happen for Texas to join the ACC, I think it would be in the context of the ACC going to 20 teams. I think Texas wouldn't come to the ACC alone.

 

[Alsacs]

If this is truly the case, then the presence of Notre Dame and access to Florida will make the ACC highly competitive in landing Texas over the Big Ten if they do ever leave the Big XII. The issue would be the Long Horn Network. But it is with ESPN, who the ACC will be with. There could be an arrangement worked out.

If it were to happen for Texas to join the ACC, I think it would be in the context of the ACC going to 20 teams. I think Texas wouldn't come to the ACC alone.

I don't see conferences going beyond 16 just because then you just become 2 conferences within 1 even with pods.

Texas won't have a "Tech" problem if the Big XII gets eaten alive, but I still think the ACC is a distant 3rd for Texas among the B1G and SEC. I just don't believe the academics of the SEC will prevent Texas from considering them, and the B1G will have a problem with the Longhorn/ESPN problem. ESPN has a 20 year contract for the Longhorn Network, and if Texas wanted to go to the B1G they wouldn't be able to before that ESPN contract expired. Texas would be on an island if they joined the ACC, and the conference can't go beyond 16 or even have a pod that would make sense for them. Texas will join the SEC or B1G IMO.

 

[HtownOrange]

If this is truly the case, then the presence of Notre Dame and access to Florida will make the ACC highly competitive in landing Texas over the Big Ten if they do ever leave the Big XII. The issue would be the Long Horn Network. But it is with ESPN, who the ACC will be with. There could be an arrangement worked out.

If it were to happen for Texas to join the ACC, I think it would be in the context of the ACC going to 20 teams. I think Texas wouldn't come to the ACC alone.

You may be right. It's hard to tell what Texas really wants, other than attention, money, glory, etc. That's why it is hard to predict what they will do.

 

[HtownOrange]

I don't see conferences going beyond 16 just because then you just become 2 conferences within 1 even with pods.

Texas won't have a "Tech" problem if the Big XII gets eaten alive, but I still think the ACC is a distant 3rd for Texas among the B1G and SEC. I just don't believe the academics of the SEC will prevent Texas from considering them, and the B1G will have a problem with the Longhorn/ESPN problem. ESPN has a 20 year contract for the Longhorn Network, and if Texas wanted to go to the B1G they wouldn't be able to before that ESPN contract expired. Texas would be on an island if they joined the ACC, and the conference can't go beyond 16 or even have a pod that would make sense for them. Texas will join the SEC or B1G IMO.

The LHN will be a sticking point. However, if it does not turn a profit for ESPN, they may be willing to drop the deal and then Texas could go anywhere. Just throwing another monkey wrench in the whole realignment mess.

 

[Alsacs]

The LHN will be a sticking point. However, if it does not turn a profit for ESPN, they may be willing to drop the deal and then Texas could go anywhere. Just throwing another monkey wrench in the whole realignment mess.

Yeah, but remember this with LHN as a ESPN channel it basically means that ESPN controls Texas inventory currently, and the B1G/BTN is backed by FOX. ESPN is going to realize that the 15 million a year they pay minimum to Texas for LHN is good to control a top 5 college football brand under the ESPN umbrella. If Texas leaves before the LHN expires it will be with ESPN blessing to an ESPN controlled conference either the SEC or ACC. I don't think the ACC is a realistic option, and that is why I said the SEC. Truthfully, Texas could probably get the Notre Dame deal with the ACC and go independent. Texas could easily get 2 for 1s with teams in Texas and have 5 ACC games each year which would be controlled by ESPN and if they went 10-2, 11-1, 12-0 be eligible for the 4 team playoff.

 

[SUinNYC]

Yeah, but remember this with LHN as a ESPN channel it basically means that ESPN controls Texas inventory currently, and the B1G/BTN is backed by FOX. ESPN is going to realize that the 15 million a year they pay minimum to Texas for LHN is good to control a top 5 college football brand under the ESPN umbrella. If Texas leaves before the LHN expires it will be with ESPN blessing to an ESPN controlled conference either the SEC or ACC. I don't think the ACC is a realistic option, and that is why I said the SEC. Truthfully, Texas could probably get the Notre Dame deal with the ACC and go independent. Texas could easily get 2 for 1s with teams in Texas and have 5 ACC games each year which would be controlled by ESPN and if they went 10-2, 11-1, 12-0 be eligible for the 4 team playoff.

I dunno. Maybe. Maybe not. In my opinion, I just don't think Texas moves the needle the same way ND does. Anyone in the country with a little bit of a Irish background claims ND as their college FB team. Texas doesn't have that kind of cultural appeal.

 

[Bayside44]

Here is a link to a talk that Deloss Dodds of Texas gave to a local chamber of commerce in Texas in early 2012. In it he explains what Texas may or may not do. The part about Conference Realignment starts at about the 19:40 minute. Bottom line from him is that as long as he's there, Texas wants to be in the Big 12. If they have to change conferences, Texas will only go East. That rules out the PAC12 for Texas.

He talks for about 30 minutes, and it tells you everything you'd ever want to know about Texas athletics. It's a good video.

I spent some time with a pretty tied in UT grad yesterday, made the strong case that they would go west. So I am sticking with that.

 

[HtownOrange]

I spent some time with a pretty tied in UT grad yesterday, made the strong case that they would go west. So I am sticking with that.

There is also a lot of grumbling about Dodds. Not sure if it will amount to anything, but a lot of UT and OU fans are not liking the overall situation since the ACC announced the GOR.

 

[Alsacs]

I dunno. Maybe. Maybe not. In my opinion, I just don't think Texas moves the needle the same way ND does. Anyone in the country with a little bit of a Irish background claims ND as their college FB team. Texas doesn't have that kind of cultural appeal.

Texas is just as big as Notre Dame. The top 5 college football brands are Alabama, Florida, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas. After those five teams you look at Southern Cal, Michigan, Florida State, Oklahoma, Nebraska in some order. If Texas goes 11-1 as an Independent they would almost be a lock for the 4 team playoff as long as there weren't four 12-o teams. Texas could go Independent like Notre Dame and be successful if they wanted to be, but being Independent isn't ideal because currently if you lose 1-2 games you can't win the NC and you have no conference title to pursue after that.

 

[SUinNYC]

Texas is just as big as Notre Dame. The top 5 college football brands are Alabama, Florida, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas. After those five teams you look at Southern Cal, Michigan, Florida State, Oklahoma, Nebraska in some order. If Texas goes 11-1 as an Independent they would almost be a lock for the 4 team playoff as long as there weren't four 12-o teams. Texas could go Independent like Notre Dame and be successful if they wanted to be, but being Independent isn't ideal because currently if you lose 1-2 games you can't win the NC and you have no conference title to pursue after that.

I think everything you said is true. Texas could go independent and still be very successful, but they still aren't Notre Dame. ND is a different kind of animal. Most sports have that one team...in baseball, it's the Yankees. In the NFL, it's the Cowboys. College BB has Duke. The NBA has the Lakers. And in college FB, it's Notre Dame.

 

[MaxwellCuse]

4x16

Sent using my Commodore 64

No. I've said before that 4x16 is nothing more than a fan boy's (or a sportswriter's) wet dream. And while Bees is certainly to astute an observer of the game and the business to be called a fan boy, this simple symetrical solution will not work in a real world situation where there are far more than 64 teams deserving of a shot at the title and more than enough politically savvy and influential guardians of those potential "left behinds." If we ever get to a situation where there's only 4 top level conferences at least some of them will have more than 16 teams. And if you have 16 or more teams some will rarely if ever play one another. In that case the next logical step is for conferences to split in two (or three in the case of a 24 team conference).