I know most hate stall ball

[orangedave]

Further proof that you can make statistics say anything you like.

I'm not going to argue whether or not JB is or isn't a "great bench coach." There are no valid statistics to prove it either way.

I do dispute these numbers as proof, though. To say JB has a + record in games won by 6 points or less doesn't account for games we should have won by more than 6 points. It gives him credit, essentially, if we were pulling away from a team and then stalled and 'hung on' for a win.

The OT record, if factual, doesn't account for how many of those games 'should' have gone to overtime. If we played Fordham and had to win in OT, that's not a positive statement.

And whoever insisted that JB's roster talent shouldn't be considered when evaluating these 'statistics' isn't a person entirely interested in objectivity. Fact is, in the majority of games we play, we have a talent advantage. In the majority of games we play, we have a home court advantage. Discounting either of those matters is silly.

I wish there were some sort of baseball-like metric for covering spreads, combined with 'park-related factors,' combined with WAR as it pertains to personnel, etc., etc., etc. And, in my fantasy land, i'd also love to hear from all the JB bootlickers how they feel his career would have progressed had he been at a school such as, say Boston College. Or, what if he had gone to Ohio State... I'm sorta of the mind that he's like a hitter who was just 'made' to hit in a certain park. The stars aligned, and now we have... what we have.

 

[orangedave]

You're apparently assuming that all the games that 'shouldn't' have gone to overtime were games where we lost a lead and should have won in regulation. How about games where we came from behind and forced OT?
Seems to me the OT sessions, no matter how we got there need to stand by themselves. Otherwise you're introducing a purely subjective element.

 

[OttoMets]

A formula this simple surely must be ignoring a great many factors.

1. This presupposes you know how many possessions there will be. -You don't.
2. This presupposes you know you will be able to continue to score, at least enough to still have more points at the end of the game. -You don't. We didn't.
3. It denies the importance of your own momentum. -We had just opened our largest lead. It's quite possible we could have expanded upon it.
4. It presupposes you have a player or players who can accept the sudden tempo and mindset change, and still be able to score in a half-court set, beginning your plays at the 12 second mark. -We tend not to be so good at this, and sometimes we get lucky. We have no Kemba Walker.

We've been playing this stall ball game for years. We've been getting away with it for years, despite the anxiety it causes. Last night, we didn't get away with it. I'm quite sure JB will claim that one failure in those years is a pretty good success ratio. JB often does/says things that defy logic. When you do them on a night when you surpass Dean Smith, the illogic tends to be accepted.

"But you can't just blindly apply whenever you're up late in the second half, with no consideration for what style your opponent is playing and the score in the game."

Dude. JB has been "blindly applying" the 2-3 zone, with no consideration for what style the opponent is playing and the score in the game. Why would a silly issue of context be of any importance now?

Good post.

 

[OttoMets]

Thanks for the stats Townie. I used what the PS had in an article they had last night. My son and I were floored by the stat of 26-4 and discussed it for quite a while. In addition, they said JB was 19-2 in OT games at home in the Carrier Dome. I should have questioned those stats considering that would mean that we played 21 OT games in the dome vs just 9 OT games away. Pretty darn good stats though. Since 2000 we are 16-4 in OT games.

By the way Coach K is 31-23 in OT games or 57%

The Post-Standard published an uncited statistic that turned out to be inaccurate?!

Now that is news.

 

[suloyalfan]

No strategy, repeat - No strategy works 100% of the time. Fact is, when you are leading near the end of the game, the clock is as much your enemy as the other team. No one can say Roy's strategy cost UNC the game because no one can predict the future. Had he not played stall ball, they may have lost by even more. You can theorize all day but when it comes to predicting the future only Nostradamus has an admirable record.

It is not about predicting the future... it is about playing the percentages. JB has stated this time and time again. If you are leading towards the end of the game then it is to your advantage to limit their possessions. It's not Nostradamus, it is more about simple math and probability.

 

[SWC75]

Further proof that you can make statistics say anything you like.

I'm not going to argue whether or not JB is or isn't a "great bench coach." There are no valid statistics to prove it either way.

I do dispute these numbers as proof, though. To say JB has a + record in games won by 6 points or less doesn't account for games we should have won by more than 6 points. It gives him credit, essentially, if we were pulling away from a team and then stalled and 'hung on' for a win.

The OT record, if factual, doesn't account for how many of those games 'should' have gone to overtime. If we played Fordham and had to win in OT, that's not a positive statement.

And whoever insisted that JB's roster talent shouldn't be considered when evaluating these 'statistics' isn't a person entirely interested in objectivity. Fact is, in the majority of games we play, we have a talent advantage. In the majority of games we play, we have a home court advantage. Discounting either of those matters is silly.

I wish there were some sort of baseball-like metric for covering spreads, combined with 'park-related factors,' combined with WAR as it pertains to personnel, etc., etc., etc. And, in my fantasy land, i'd also love to hear from all the JB bootlickers how they feel his career would have progressed had he been at a school such as, say Boston College. Or, what if he had gone to Ohio State... I'm sorta of the mind that he's like a hitter who was just 'made' to hit in a certain park. The stars aligned, and now we have... what we have.

The best drivers can be found in the best cars. If JB were a mediocre coach, we'd have gotten somebody else to coach the team because we have to fill all those seats.

 

[HarrisonJBounel]

The thing that bugs me most about stall ball is that you're changing what got you the lead in the first place. To put it a different way, "dance with (what) brung you." I hate getting away from what works for supposed strategy.

Exactly. And it turns you from being the predator into being the prey. It gives the other team the psychological momentum. It turns you into Jamie Lee Curtis trying to hide in the closet from Michael Meyers.

 

[LennX6]

I wouldn't mind if we ran 20 seconds off the clock and then start looking for a high percentage shot ... but holding the ball for 30 and then rushing a poor shot or not even getting a shot off is never a good idea ... just look at what almost happened to us and what did happen to UNC tonight... in the final 2:33 minutes UNC 0-0 shooting 2 turnovers 2 points and Duke 5-7 shooting 0 turnovers 13 points duke trailed 82-72, won 85-84 ... stall ball at it's worst

Here is where we go wrong, we do not start looking to the hoop until 6-7 sec left on the clock. Better off at 10-12 sec

 

[LennX6]

Exactly. And it turns you from being the predator into being the prey. It gives the other team the psychological momentum. It turns you into Jamie Lee Curtis trying to hide in the closet from Michael Meyers.

In a game like last night it mattered less as we were not hitting on all cylinders so the transition from "normal" flow to stall was less abrupt.