If I were an NFL GM I wouldn't draft Mariota in the top 10

[longtimefan]

Rodgers played in a pro system at Cal Jeff Tedford his college coach has been an NFL coordinator since he left Cal.
He didn't play in a spread/run system the Ducks run.

Comparing Mariotta to Rodgers is not a good comparison.

But the other Cal/Tedford QB's flamed out--Boller, etc.

 

[Millhouse]

Recent QB's drafted early who played in a pro style offense in college and had success...Luck (obviously), Tannehill with Mike Sherman at A&M in a West Coast offense, Russel Wilson came from a non-spread offense and a very pro style offense.

And the QB's drafted early who came from the spread offenses or a "gimmicky" offense have struggled badly...Brandon Weeden, RGIII, Manziel, Tebow

too early to tell with manziel. russell wilson does the zone read better than anyone. if he ran seattle's offense in college, he would've been drafted even lower.

 

[Alsacs]

But the other Cal/Tedford QB's flamed out--Boller, etc.

So Cal QBs go 1 for 2 and that means something?

Tedford has had busts and successes in his system. Chip Kelly's Oregon has had Dennis Dixon, Jeramiah Mesoli, Darrin Thomas all run this system. Mariota has been the most efficient, but he hasn't made NFL throws i.e. back shoulder, cross field. All of his passes have been into windows with soft coverage for the most part. Tedford's system was a vertical passing game and with elite RBs mixed in.

Mariota doesn't look anything like Rodgers did in college he looks more like Rodgers 2005 top QB competitor Alex Smith.

 

[Millhouse]

So Cal QBs go 1 for 2 and that means something?

Tedford has had busts and successes in his system. Chip Kelly's Oregon has had Dennis Dixon, Jeramiah Mesoli, Darrin Thomas all run this system. Mariota has been the most efficient, but he hasn't made NFL throws i.e. back shoulder, cross field. All of his passes have been into windows with soft coverage for the most part. Tedford's system was a vertical passing game and with elite RBs mixed in.

Mariota doesn't look anything like Rodgers did in college he looks more like Rodgers 2005 top QB competitor Alex Smith.

the best NFL Qbs are old. takes years to become so great - it's all upstairs, they've seen it all with experience.

college football was so different when so many of these guys were in college.

aside from luck who would've been amazing in any offense, it's pretty hard to judge any of these qbs compared to the 10 old guys like manning brady brees rivers roethlisberger rodgers palmer romo matt ryan

all the good ones are in their 30s. (weeden was in his 30s in college he doesn't count)

 

[jekelish]

the best NFL Qbs are old. takes years to become so great - it's all upstairs, they've seen it all with experience.

college football was so different when so many of these guys were in college.

aside from luck who would've been amazing in any offense, it's pretty hard to judge any of these qbs compared to the 10 old guys like manning brady brees rivers roethlisberger rodgers palmer romo matt ryan

all the good ones are in their 30s. (weeden was in his 30s in college he doesn't count)

This is true. I don't think people understand, additionally, how beneficial it was for a guy like Rodgers to get to sit behind Favre for a few years before he became the starter. Same for Romo, and even to a degree Rivers when he was behind Brees.

Regarding under 30 QBs, I think you have to add in Wilson with Luck but otherwise I also agree. There are a couple other guys who have shown flashes (Tannehill, for instance) but that's basically it.

 

[TheCusian]

Tedford's system was a vertical passing game and with elite RBs mixed in.

This is not true. This was the wrap on Tedford's system in Rodgers days at Cal:

"Tedford does an excellent job, it seems, in programming his quarterbacks. He provides them more facile reads by having created a system that, sometimes even before the snap, eliminates half of the field from the pass-progression process. The offense places a high premium on completion percentage, on making the quick and accurate throws, usually in low-risk scenarios, but seems lacking in big plays and in vertical dimension."

From this article.

 

[BlazeOrange]

I wouldn't be comfortable with either Mariota or Winston as a franchise QB. If the GMs of teams considering them agree with me, they will be in the same boat next season after drafting players to build around and getting a stopgap QB. Who will be the top QBs entering the 2016 draft? Any look like #1 overall candidates?

 

[RF2044]

Bru

Bridgewater was obviously the top QB in last year's draft IMO. Louisville ran a pro offense not a spread offense and the kid made NFL throws in games(worth noting he did have 2 NFL WRs but still). The draft process tore the kid down because he had a poor pro day when nobody has poor pro days. The fact Brotles went ahead of him had something to do with the fact Jacksonville is run by morons and Bridgewater tanked his meetings with Cleveland because he didn't want to go there. Minnesota got a steal at 32.

I live in Minneapolis, and the Vikings were the recipients of the windfall of having Bridgewater fall into their laps at #32, after he'd been projected as being potentially the #1 overall pick for the entire season leading up to the draft. So what changed?

Two things were highly impactful. First of all, the guy had an "average" pro day. By that, I mean that he completed something like 36 passes out of 50--a "poor" showing that was unprecedented. Usually, these are scripted plays without guys in pads, and scouts always pooh-pooh not trying to read much into pro days where guys routinely complete 49 out of 50 passes. But since noone had ever seen a "poor" completion [relatively speaking] % coming out of one of those, people freaked out over it and the pendulum swung the opposite way. They put TOO much stock in the pro day instead of following their own advice.

The second thing strikes me as pretty funny. There was a guest on local sports radio after the draft who talks about how he and his friends intentionally release false information about NFL draft prospects on the internet, and how quickly legitimate sports news venues pick up on it and proliferate it--because all of these NFL mock draft folks all read the same stuff. And once somebody picks up on a tidbit of info, it starts being reported as "fact," when in fact often times it is inaccurate.

In this case, the guy on the radio described how they put out false information about Bridgewater, claiming that doctors evaluating him at the combine had determined that he had "skinny knees." Obviously, this is not a medical condition--it is nonsensical. But within days, that info was being discussed on the NFL network by credible analysts.

I also agree with the Cleveland thing--he told them not to draft him, and they were a strong candidate. So once he fell past the first few picks and got into the teams that already have QBs, he was in Aaron Rodgers-esque free fall.

I don't know why, but I really got a kick out of the "skinny knees" story--it just goes to show how in the internet age, even legitimate news sources can be easily duped in their zeal to report new info.

 

[Alsacs]

I wouldn't be comfortable with either Mariota or Winston as a franchise QB. If the GMs of teams considering them agree with me, they will be in the same boat next season after drafting players to build around and getting a stopgap QB. Who will be the top QBs entering the 2016 draft? Any look like #1 overall candidates?

Connor Cook Michigan State/ Dak Prescott Missisippi State are the best prospects for 2016 right now. Cardale Jones if he ramins the starter and lights it up could be interesting as well.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I'm not sure about Mariota, but I as sure as heck wouldn't draft Winston. Florida State QB's stink in the pros. (Weinke, Ponder, Manuel). I am sure I am missing someone. If he threw 17 picks in college hes going to thro 30 next year. Jamarcus Russell 2.0..

I don't know why GM's think you have to draft a QB in the first round. You think the Russell Wilson's and Tom Brady's of the world would teach these GM's something.

 

[Millhouse]

I'm not sure about Mariota, but I as sure as heck wouldn't draft Winston. Florida State QB's stink in the pros. (Weinke, Ponder, Manuel). I am sure I am missing someone. If he threw 17 picks in college hes going to thro 30 next year. Jamarcus Russell 2.0..

I don't know why GM's think you have to draft a QB in the first round. You think the Russell Wilson's and Tom Brady's of the world would teach these GM's something.

rodgers
ryan
roethlisberger
stafford
manning
rivers
flacco
eli*
palmer

first rounders

you got brady wilson and romo. other than that, the good ones are first rounders. wilson should've been a first rounder, his college numbers are amazing, meatheads make too much of height

if you draft all second and third rounders, you probably won't get one but you also won't get criticized for drafting a bust

 

[44doubledees]

Winston won't last to 7 IMO. The Jets would be hard to pass him if he fell to them. Winston is a million dollar player, ten cent brain type of guy. He needs to grow up which is scary, but he has shown NFL QB throws in college more than Mariota.

Mariota is a good kid and class act, but just runs a complex run/pass offense that uses space well. When Ohio State pressured him and they did often and his first read was covered he struggled badly. Now Oregon WR's dropped passes and that hurt him, but in the red zone Mariota was awful and Oregon lost the game in the red zone.

Your Bears are likely dealing Cutler and would be in the market for a QB, but I think your Bears need way more help on the defensive side as the Bears D got old and slow real fast this year.

I hope we can offload Cutler, and agree we need a whole draft of Defense again this year to even get back to respectable standards. Just not sold on Winston.

 

[longtimefan]

So Cal QBs go 1 for 2 and that means something?

Tedford has had busts and successes in his system. Chip Kelly's Oregon has had Dennis Dixon, Jeramiah Mesoli, Darrin Thomas all run this system. Mariota has been the most efficient, but he hasn't made NFL throws i.e. back shoulder, cross field. All of his passes have been into windows with soft coverage for the most part. Tedford's system was a vertical passing game and with elite RBs mixed in.

Mariota doesn't look anything like Rodgers did in college he looks more like Rodgers 2005 top QB competitor Alex Smith.

The comparison was one "system" vs the other. And I used Boller because he was the first to come to mind. There are others--hence the use of the "etc". For example, Trent Dilfer, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, David Carr. None of them was a franchise NFL quarterback.

So the conclusion is that either system can have failures and successes.

 

[Cusefan0307]

rodgers
ryan
roethlisberger
stafford
manning
rivers
flacco
eli*
palmer

first rounders

you got brady wilson and romo. other than that, the good ones are first rounders. wilson should've been a first rounder, his college numbers are amazing, meatheads make too much of height

if you draft all second and third rounders, you probably won't get one but you also won't get criticized for drafting a bust

Brees was a second rounder. Kaepernick a mehhh second rounder. Romo undrafted. Kurt Warner was great, he was undrafted.

Of that list above the only one really consistent is Ben. Flacco has had a good playoff career.

 

[Alsacs]

rodgers
ryan
roethlisberger
stafford
manning
rivers
flacco
eli*
palmer

first rounders

you got brady wilson and romo. other than that, the good ones are first rounders. wilson should've been a first rounder, his college numbers are amazing, meatheads make too much of height

if you draft all second and third rounders, you probably won't get one but you also won't get criticized for drafting a bust

AFC East
Brady-6th round
Geno Smith- 2nd round
Manuel- 1st round
Tannenhill- 1st round

AFC South
Brotles- 1st round
Luck- 1st round
Mettenberger- 6th round
Fitzpatrick- UFA

AFC North
Rothlisberger- 1st round
Flacco- 1st round
Manziel- 1st round
Dalton- 2nd round

AFC West
Manning-1st round
Rivers- 1st round
Alex Smith- 1st round
Carr- 2nd round

NFC East
Manning-1st round
Griffin III- 1st round
Foles- 3rd round
Romo- UFA

NFC South
Newton-1st round
Ryan- 1st round
Brees- 2nd round
Glennon- 3rd round

NFC North
Rodgers- 1st round
Stafford- 1st round
Cutler-1st round
Bridgewater- 1st round

NFC West
Palmer- 1st round
Bradford- 1st round
Kapernick- 2nd round
Wilson- 3rd round

Only 12 of the 32 starting QBs weren't picked in the first round. I just don't see Mariota as a top 10 pick watching him play QB against a good college D with a pass rush which could get him off his first read.

 

[Crusty]

I thought Cardale Jones has looked pretty good but he also has had the benefit of a running game averaging like 10 yards a clip. That makes Quarterbacking much easier.

You would look OK as QB of that team! Hard to evaluate Jones.

 

[Doc5120]

Oregon was missing their top 2 WR's and TE. It's hard to place all that blame on Mariota. He wasn't the one dropping passes. And I don't care what kind of offense you play in...when you throw 40 TD to 3 INT's, you're more than a system guy. I still believe he was the best college QB this season and I'd draft him over Winston and any others.

 

[Czar]

Connor Cook Michigan State/ Dak Prescott Missisippi State are the best prospects for 2016 right now. Cardale Jones if he ramins the starter and lights it up could be interesting as well.

The star of 2016 is going to be Hackenburg. And that's it.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I'm not sure about Mariota, but I as sure as heck wouldn't draft Winston. Florida State QB's stink in the pros. (Weinke, Ponder, Manuel). I am sure I am missing someone. If he threw 17 picks in college hes going to thro 30 next year. Jamarcus Russell 2.0..

I don't know why GM's think you have to draft a QB in the first round. You think the Russell Wilson's and Tom Brady's of the world would teach these GM's something.

Weinke is like 60 years old? Really

 

[Millhouse]

Weinke is like 60 years old? Really

teams need to get over the fear of busts. there are a million examples of sticking with someone too long and hardly any of teams changing gears quick. carolina drafted newton a year after clausen (2nd rounder) that's the best i can do, that worked out pretty well. teams make a bad pick worse by not going back to the well

i think winston is mentally ill, i'd stay away for that reason, not because ponder isn't good. winston was way better than ponder and manuel at FSU, it's not like they had the same careers.