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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 3255879, member: 1969"]
The ACC is quite a bit weaker than normal. 
It was the 5th best performing conference out of play by most measures, and that basically dictates a lot of things for the middle of conference teams.

Maybe a little simplified for an example, but here goes:

The Big Ten has been great this year.   The average team in conference say is #35, entering conference play.
The ACC has been poor this year, and the average team is #70.

There ends up being a multiplier effect.  Big Ten teams keep playing "better" teams after January 1st, and it makes everyone better around you.   Basically every game becomes either a Q1/Q2 game, and it is hard to get a bad loss.

If your conference did bad out of conference, its the opposite effect.   Everybody brings each other down in the numbers, less Q1/Q2 games, more opportunities for a bad loss in conference.

Basically middle of the road ACC teams have it much, much tougher this year.   So far Syracuse has managed to get around it by winning road games in conference.   That will certainly make up for it, but it is almost certainly a formula that cannot be maintained for a bubble team.

That is why I said before that if an ACC team with 12 games to go was deemed in as of today in a prior season, they could coast to a tourney spot going 6-6 or even 5-7.    This year it might have to be 7-5 or even 8-4..

Here is a recent example.   Nebraska went 13-5 in the Big Ten in 2018 which was 4th, but they missed the tournament because the Big10 really struggled before January.

This year there will be Big 10 teams at 7-11 that are going to be getting in the tournament, because the conference has had a great out of conference.
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