I'm glad I didn't see the last punt

[GoSU96]

Go, you basically pulled that number out of thin air. If we're going by what actually happened in the game thus far, PSU had gotten a first down on about 1/2 of their possessions. That's a big jump going from 50% to 75%, and you're crediting that 25% swing to field position. No, I'm not buying that.


Millhouse and I don't see eye to eye on certain things, but on this one we're basically soul brothers.

Not just field postion, but field postion, time and score. Last four possessions of the game that PSU started inside their 30. 3 and out, 5 plays and interception, 3 and out, 3 and out.

And field position does matter (excluding their last possession after the int)

10 possessions started inside their 30, 7 punts (5 3 and outs), 2 turnovers, 1 TD

6 possessions started outside their 30, 2 turnovers, 3 FG's, 1 TD.

 

[Millhouse]

Not just field postion, but field postion, time and score. Last four possessions of the game that PSU started inside their 30. 3 and out, 5 plays and interception, 3 and out, 3 and out.

And field position does matter (excluding their last possession after the int)

10 possessions started inside their 30, 7 punts (5 3 and outs), 2 turnovers, 1 TD

6 possessions started outside their 30, 2 turnovers, 3 FG's, 1 TD.

one of those turnovers with a long field was after they already got a couple first downs. if they repeated that drive, the turnover wouldn't have happened because the game would've been over.

what really matters there was how likely were they to get a first down.

which is pretty likely no matter where they were on the field. 3 out of 4 times they had 75+ yards to go, they got a first down (CHERRY PICKED i admit it)

if we're going to go by field position from one game, they're good inside their 20, bad from the twenties, and good from the 30s on.

we're getting into randomness here. there aren't giant swings in your ability to get one first down outside of getting pinned at the goal line. (that's a big reason to go for it near the goal line but that's beside the point). i am not all that confident in any punters ability to pin people really deep.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

what really matters there was how likely were they to get a first down.

which is pretty likely no matter where they were on the field.

we're getting into randomness here. there aren't giant swings in your ability to get one first down outside of getting pinned at the goal line. (that's a big reason to go for it near the goal line but that's beside the point). i am not all that confident in any punters ability to pin people really deep.

Well said. I'd also add, if I'm a PSU fan, I'm a little miffed that BOB wasn't more aggressive on their last series. He was perfectly content to ground and pound and give the ball back with time to lose it. If he locks up a first down at any point on that drive, ball game's over.

 

[kirbivore]

You can't just make up percentages and use that as proof :rolling: