In ACC, SU now 3rd in RPI, 2nd in SOS

[Gonzo]

Below are the current RPI and SOS readings for ACC teams as per ESPN

Duke: RPI 1, SOS 5
N. Carolina: RPI 7, SOS 17
Syracuse: RPI 11, SOS 14

Clemson: RPI 14, SOS 87
Virginia: RPI 14, SOS 115
Miami: RPI 21, SOS 102
Fl. State: RPI 34, SOS 140
Louisville: RPI 36, SOS 50
Notre Dame: RPI 60, SOS 119

Boston College: RPI 65, SOS 124
Va. Tech: RPI 72, SOS 248
Pitt: RPI 129, SOS 55
Wake: RPI 124, SOS 75
NC State: RPI 130, SOS 228
Ga. Tech: RPI 232, SOS 211

 

[NKR1978]

We finally learned how to game the RPI.

 

[721Comstock]

We finally learned how to game the RPI.

Day late, dollar short.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Me thinks VPI and Notre Dame are going to be in trouble come selection Sunday.

 

[SU94]

We finally learned how to game the RPI.

Truth be told, SU has been gaming the RPI for about 10 years now (ever since 2007-08, a year after SU won 22 games and did not get a bid). We're one of the best at that practice, and it includes playing a mix of P-5 opponents, of small-conference favorites (or similar), and local NYS rivals. Yes, the Big East and ACC schedules help tremendously, as does winning around 80% of these games, but the OOC slate should not be slept upon. This is not a blind draw or chock full of coaching favors. There is plenty of strategery involved.

 

[pearl31]

Me thinks VPI and Notre Dame are going to be in trouble come selection Sunday.

vpi possibly,
but ND has the neutral over Wichita that will go a long way - they'd prolly just have to go .500 acc

 

[Orangezoo]

We are now up to 45 in Ken Pom and 49 in the BPI.

 

[jncuse]

Day late, dollar short.

It wasn't the OOC RPI that killed us last year. The SOS wasn't good, but the real issue was going 8-5 against that schedule and not getting either a road or neutral win.

 

[jncuse]

Truth be told, SU has been gaming the RPI for about 10 years now (ever since 2007-08, a year after SU won 22 games and did not get a bid). We're one of the best at that practice, and it includes playing a mix of P-5 opponents, of small-conference favorites (or similar), and local NYS rivals. Yes, the Big East and ACC schedules help tremendously, as does winning around 80% of these games, but the OOC slate should not be slept upon. This is not a blind draw or chock full of coaching favors. There is plenty of strategery involved.

And some years, like last year, the SOS will still suck because it is not 100% predictable. We ran into a bunch of teams in down years, who still beat us.

 

[jncuse]

Me thinks VPI and Notre Dame are going to be in trouble come selection Sunday.

I guess it depends if you are basing that on them struggling in the ACC or the RPI creating a hole.

An RPI of 60 and 72 on January 1, is not a hole for a P5 School. (Or not one big enough that should preclude you from getting in the tourney by going 9-9 in the ACC) We were around RPI #200 at this point last year at this time IIRC - that was a problem.

For example if Virginia Tech goes 9-9 in the ACC it's RPI would likely be around 53.

For Notre Dame it would be around 61, which is certainly in the tight zone... but in this case the good (win over Wichita St, would likely outdo the bad against Ball

 

[Cusefan0307]

I guess it depends if you are basing that on them struggling in the ACC or the RPI creating a hole.

An RPI of 60 and 72 on January 1, is not a hole for a P5 School. (Or not one big enough that should preclude you from getting in the tourney by going 9-9 in the ACC) We were around RPI #200 at this point last year at this time IIRC - that was a problem.

For example if Virginia Tech goes 9-9 in the ACC it's RPI would likely be around 53.
View attachment 118616

For Notre Dame it would be around 61, which is certainly in the tight zone... but in this case the good (win over Wichita St, would likely outdo the bad against Ball
View attachment 118617

Kenpom predicts VPI at 8 wins right now. They were at 9 before our loss. Notre Dame is predicated to finish with 10. Our win over VPI was a huge swing game that I think at the end of the year could hurt VPI. Same thing when Notre Dame comes to the dome Saturday.

Obviously it’s early to be making predictions, but these tossup games are ultimately going to decide who makes the tournament. Now all of this might not matter if someone like Louisville continues to implode, which I think is highly possible. Just my 2 cents.

 

[jncuse]

Projected ACC standings / metrics based on Sagarin Predictor.

Based on these standings the top 9 would be tourney teams. Unless the fortunes of its OOC opponents change, my feeling is that 8-10 would not be enough for Virginia Tech.

The 5 teams predicted at sub 100, could create some havoc in the standings as well taking some wins from the top and making it an 8 bid conference. It would be hard for one of those sub 100 teams to have a good ACC year and not knock someone above them out of the race.

My feel on # of seeds that the ACC will ultimately get.
7 - Less than 5%
8 - 45%
9 - 45%
10 - 5%

 

[jncuse]

Kenpom predicts VPI at 8 wins right now. They were at 9 before our loss. Notre Dame is predicated to finish with 10. Our win over VPI was a huge swing game that I think at the end of the year could hurt VPI. Same thing when Notre Dame comes to the dome Saturday.

Obviously it’s early to be making predictions, but these tossup games are ultimately going to decide who makes the tournament. Now all of this might not matter if someone like Louisville continues to implode, which I think is highly possible. Just my 2 cents.

The chart I get from real time RPI also has Virginia Tech predicted for 8 wins, and I agree with all your points. That was a huge swing game for them, and based solely on projected win totals they would be out.

 

[Knicks411]

Projected ACC standings / metrics based on Sagarin Predictor.

View attachment 118618

Based on these standings the top 9 would be tourney teams. Unless the fortunes of its OOC opponents change, my feeling is that 8-10 would not be enough for Virginia Tech.

The 5 teams predicted at sub 100, could create some havoc in the standings as well taking some wins from the top and making it an 8 bid conference. It would be hard for one of those sub 100 teams to have a good ACC year and not knock someone above them out of the race.

My feel on # of seeds that the ACC will ultimately get.
7 - Less than 5%
8 - 45%
9 - 45%
10 - 5%

So just looking at the chart, I'm thinking 9-9 in the league is probably going to be good enough for us? (obvious caveat about who the 9 are against, of course)

The toss up games are going to be huge; before league play there were 6 that fit into the criteria I made up on the spot for a toss up game (basically, Ken Pom win% of roughly 45-55%). One of them was the Virginia Tech game, we won that, so far, so good.

The other 5 include the next 2, @Wake, home ND, plus home UNC (this is borderline, it's 43%, and we know these percentages are EXACT), and then @BC and home Clemson. (it's also funny how the schedule works out, we start with 3 toss up games, end with 2, and the UNC game is our 15th, so the middle of the season includes a lot of games we either "should" win or lose. I also think the UNC game is probably a bit less of a toss-up than the odds would indicate, but maybe I'm being pessimistic. But assuming reasonable results in the other 12 conf games, I figure 2-4 in those 6 is not good, 3-3 we're probably in, and 4-2 would have us in a good position.

One other point, the schedule is somwhat front loaded; of the first 9 games we play only four at home, but we've got the 2 toss-up games coming up, then 2 games where we're significant dogs (@UVA and FSU) and then 4 games in a row where we're likely to be favored. I'm shooting for 6-3 here. maybe a bit too optimistic, 5-4 would be acceptable.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I actually like the way we match up with UNC this year. It’s the first time in a few years we have the size and rebounding to matchup with them and this is their smallest team since we joined the conference.

 

[SU94]

The chart I get from real time RPI also has Virginia Tech predicted for 8 wins, and I agree with all your points. That was a huge swing game for them, and based solely on projected win totals they would be out.

I have VT beating UVa tomorrow night in Blacksburg. Bibbs is going to go off, score 16-18 points, and the Hokies will win by 7.

Folks, it is going to be rugged for anyone in this league to win on the road.

 

[Hoo's That]

I have VT beating UVa tomorrow night in Blacksburg. Bibbs is going to go off, score 16-18 points, and the Hokies will win by 7.

Folks, it is going to be rugged for anyone in this league to win on the road.

Folks on our board say the way it has been going lately is that the game in Bleaksburg can go either way, totally dependent on who's having a hot shooting night (or if the ball hangs on the heel of the rim ), and then we have a big win against them in C'ville.

 

[SU94]

Folks on our board say the way it has been going lately is that the game in Bleaksburg can go either way, totally dependent on who's having a hot shooting night (or if the ball hangs on the heel of the rim ), and then we have a big win against them in C'ville.

I love your team, BTW. Jerome is terrific, Wilkins too.
I just see this as a tough matchup. I've been wrong before.

 

[orangenirvana]

Truth be told, SU has been gaming the RPI for about 10 years now (ever since 2007-08, a year after SU won 22 games and did not get a bid). We're one of the best at that practice, and it includes playing a mix of P-5 opponents, of small-conference favorites (or similar), and local NYS rivals. Yes, the Big East and ACC schedules help tremendously, as does winning around 80% of these games, but the OOC slate should not be slept upon. This is not a blind draw or chock full of coaching favors. There is plenty of strategery involved.

We must have taken last year off...

RPI: 84
Sagarin: 38
KenPom: 51
BPI: 31

 

[Hoo's That]

I love your team, BTW. Jerome is terrific, Wilkins too.
I just see this as a tough matchup. I've been wrong before.

Totally agree about the tough matchup. Playing them in The Barn gives them a big boost that they don’t seem to have in C’ville. One thing in our favor is Allen is gone. He gave us fits playing for the Twerps and then gave us more when he transferred to VPI.

 

[dasher]

We must have taken last year off...

RPI: 84
Sagarin: 38
KenPom: 51
BPI: 31

Our team took the first half of the season off last year.

 

[SU94]

We must have taken last year off...

RPI: 84
Sagarin: 38
KenPom: 51
BPI: 31

Yea, RPI factors in who you are winning and losing against. IIRC, we went 8-5 OOC last year. I think you are confusing SOS with RPI.

 

[orangenirvana]

Yea, RPI factors in who you are winning and losing against. IIRC, we went 8-5 OOC last year. I think you are confusing SOS with RPI.

Nope, 84 was their RPI, not SOS. I'm just skeptical of the statement "SU has been gaming the RPI for 10 years now" when last season all other computer rankings were much more favorable.

 

[SU94]

Nope, 84 was their RPI, not SOS. I'm just skeptical of the statement "SU has been gaming the RPI for 10 years now" when last season all other computer rankings were much more favorable.

We lost all of a "big " OOC games last year, most by large margins (and I know RPI does not include margin of victory/loss).

• South Carolina (Neutral) by 14
• Wisconsin (Road) by 17
• UConn (N) by 2
• Georgetown (H) by 7
• St. John's (H) by 33

We then went on to play decently well (10-8) in the ACC.

That is why we finished with an RPI 84. If we went 20-11 or something similar, we would have been in fine shape. I mean, we were a bubble team, even with those ridiculously poor results (by SU's standards).