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[QUOTE="Knicks411, post: 2438576, member: 767"]
So just looking at the chart, I'm thinking 9-9 in the league is probably going to be good enough for us?  (obvious caveat about who the 9 are against, of course)

The toss up games are going to be huge; before league play there were 6 that fit into the criteria I made up on the spot for a toss up game (basically, Ken Pom win% of roughly 45-55%).  One of them was the Virginia Tech game, we won that, so far, so good.

The other 5 include the next 2, @Wake, home ND, plus home UNC (this is borderline, it's 43%, and we know these percentages are EXACT), and then @BC and home Clemson.  (it's also funny how the schedule works out, we start with 3 toss up games, end with 2, and the UNC game is our 15th, so the middle of the season includes a lot of games we either "should" win or lose.  I also think the UNC game is probably a bit less of a toss-up than the odds would indicate, but maybe I'm being pessimistic.  But assuming reasonable results in the other 12 conf games, I figure 2-4 in those 6 is not good, 3-3 we're probably in, and 4-2 would have us in a good position.

One other point, the schedule is somwhat front loaded; of the first 9 games we play only four at home, but we've got the 2 toss-up games coming up, then 2 games where we're significant dogs (@UVA and FSU) and then 4 games in a row where we're likely to be favored.   I'm shooting for 6-3 here.  maybe a bit too optimistic, 5-4 would be acceptable.
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