Interesting "Star Rating" Breakdown for NFL Draft

[suloyalfan]

I apologize in advance if this has already been posted, but I thought this breakdown of star ratings and other categories of the players selected in the NFL Draft this past week-end by 247 Sports was interesting (I can't post the link because it keeps erasing the website name). The star rankings have been discussed ad nauseum in this and other forums and will continue to be debated so I figured I'd post it...

Here are the breakdowns given of the picks in percentages:

5 Star - 7.0% (18 players)
4 Star - 26.2% (67 players)
3 Star - 41.0% (105 players - Marquis Spruill)
2 Star / Unranked - 25.8% (66 players - Jay Bromley)

For comparison purposes, I looked at the number of players ranked by 247 Sports for the 2009 and 2010 recruiting classes.

The numbers for 2009 are as follows:

5 Star - 30 (1.3% of the ranked players in the 2009 Class)
4 Star - 266 (11.7%)
3 Star - 1256 (55.4% - Andrew Tiller and Phillip Thomas were in this group)
2 Star - 717 (31.6% - Justin Pugh, Shamarko Thomas, Richard Anderson, Brandon Sharpe, Zach Chibane, and Alec Lemon were in this group)

The numbers for 2010 are as follows:

5 Star - 30 (1.2% of the ranked players in the 2010 Class)
4 Star - 278 (11.0%)
3 Star - 1560 (61.4% - Jarrod West, Marquis Spruill, Jeremi Wilkes, Rob Welsh, Dyshawn Davis, PTG, Jerome Smith, Keon Lynn, Micah Robinson, Jeremiah Kobena, Beckett Wales, Macky MacPherson, Adrian Flemming, Deon Goggins, and Michael Hay, Ross Krautman, Orlando Fisher, and Lou Alexander were in this group)
2 Star - 670 (26.4% - Sean Hickey were in this group)

 

[NashvilleOrange]

SI broke down the top of the draft; for the most part, first round picks were elite prospects in high school too.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/news/20140505/2014-nfl-draft-prospects-as-high-school-recruits/

 

[NKR1978]

Interesting, but fewer guys actually get the 4 and 5 star ratings, so not sure whether this shows anything. Would be more interesting to see what overall percentage of 4/5 star players were drafted.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Interesting, but fewer guys actually get the 4 and 5 star ratings, so not sure whether this shows anything. Would be more interesting to see what overall percentage of 4/5 star players were drafted.

Thought that as well but will be tough to get exact numbers given not all draftees are from the same class.

In 2011 Skout gave out (50) 5 stars and (250) 4 stars. Not sure on the rest but given (18) 5 stars and (67) 4 stars were drafted ~36% of 5 stars ~27% of 4 stars got drafted. Really sloppy math but it's somewhere in that ballpark I'd presume.

 

[xc84]

SI broke down the top of the draft; for the most part, first round picks were elite prospects in high school too.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/news/20140505/2014-nfl-draft-prospects-as-high-school-recruits/

5- 3
4-17
3-10
2-2

 

[xc84]

Interesting, but fewer guys actually get the 4 and 5 star ratings, so not sure whether this shows anything. Would be more interesting to see what overall percentage of 4/5 star players were drafted.

It shows us that you can't discount players rated 2 or 3 stars.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

This is an excellent breakdown of this subject

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap20...ar-look-at-fivestar-college-football-recruits

 

[wfschrec]

This is an excellent breakdown of this subject

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap20...ar-look-at-fivestar-college-football-recruits

Someone should double check his work ... Bryce Brown was selected in the 2012 draft by Philly in round 7 ... while that is a small detail I'm sure there is more work botched along the way.

 

[NKR1978]

It shows us that you can't discount players rated 2 or 3 stars.

If a recruit is big/strong/fast and has the other measurables, then I don't care what their star is. Especially if they are from an area where they haven't gotten strong coaching. I trust our coaches' ability to make them better.

 

[rrlbees]

Interesting, but fewer guys actually get the 4 and 5 star ratings, so not sure whether this shows anything. Would be more interesting to see what overall percentage of 4/5 star players were drafted.

I forget the exact numbers but there are approximately 30-40 5 stars each year, 250-300 4 stars, 1200-1300 3 stars and over 2000 2 stars. So using the original metric isn't apples to apples.

 

[suloyalfan]

I forget the exact numbers but there are approximately 30-40 5 stars each year, 250-300 4 stars, 1200-1300 3 stars and over 2000 2 stars. So using the original metric isn't apples to apples.

Right, it's hard to get exact numbers, especially when it comes to unranked prospects... and then add in the fact that the players getting drafted are from 3 different classes (2009, 2010, and 2011), and that there is variability between recruiting services it's hard to do really solid apples to apples evaluations.

 

[xc84]

I think the most meaningful analysis would be to see NFL draftees by "stars" by coaching staff.

Do certain coaches have a knack for really recognizing NFL-caliber talent irregardless of star ratings? i.e. would a Scott Shafer 3 star recruit have the same probability of making an NFL team as another coach's 3 star recruit?

 

[BlazeOrange]

I forget the exact numbers but there are approximately 30-40 5 stars each year, 250-300 4 stars, 1200-1300 3 stars and over 2000 2 stars. So using the original metric isn't apples to apples.

Ignoring D-II and D-III, there are approx 120 D-1 teams * 25 recruits per year = 3000 players per class.
Using the higher end of Bees estimate above, that equates to:
1.3% are 5-stars, 10.0% are 4-stars, 43.3% are 3-stars, and the remaining 45.3% (1,360 players) are 2-stars.

Using the lower end of Bees estimate above, that equates to:
1.0% are 5-stars, 8.3% are 4-stars, 40.0% are 3-stars, and the remaining 50.7% (1,520 players) are 2-stars.

 

[cuseinchina]

I never understand why people want to have this - star rankings are everything OR star rankings are meaningless argument.

Just looking at the data you can see 1/3 of the players picked in the draft were 4 or 5 stars, and looking at the Blaze Orange post, 4 and 5 stars are roughly 10% of division 1 football payers. So clearly the star rankings are predictive.

On the other hand you've got more than 1/4 of the draft coming in as unranked or 2 stars which highlights the shortcomings and opportunities.

What this means for Syracuse is pretty basic: 1. try to get more 4 and 5 star players because they tend to be more successful ; 2. We need coaches who are value investors - who are capable of finding under the radar guys who have potential and then can coach them up - in other words we need our coaches to be better than the average ACC coach in these two areas if we are going to be successful all else being equal.