Is Dion Waiters making the right decision?

[billorange44]

http://blog.syracuse.com/orangebasketball/2012/03/syracuse_basketball_links_is_d.html

He really should look at guys like Dennis Rodman and Alan Iverson. Lots of coin, lots of flash and then when you have spent it all and you have no more flash, you can get a job at Wal-Mart or go back to school and pay for what would have been paid for if you had stayed in the first place.

 

[Room 914]

Good point. His stock is up but was it last year there was a feeding frenzy on foreign players? Could happen again and push some legitimate first-rounders down the list, including Dion.

But with Dion, his stock should only grow as he goes through the combine. His physical abilities, like his quickness, are the strongest parts of his game and I think he can only help himself out. I think top 20 pick.

 

[HOFCeluck]

I wonder if he talked to Boeheim...he's usually pretty honest about a guy's chances in the draft.

If I remember he told both Carmelo and Flynn to go for the draft.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

is there any way the nba could do something more like baseball, like draft the rights to a kid out of high school and if he wants to go to college let him.

Draft and follow no longer exists in baseball. If they go to school and play ball, you lose that pick.
As far as Dion is concerned, I guess it depends on how confident Dion in his game. If he came back next year and started and put up big numbers, he likely moves up to mid/lottery level. Remember the higher you get drafted, you end up with THREE big things working for you.

1. more guaranteed money.

2. playing generally on a crappier team means more playing time for you

3. the fact that a team invested a high draft pick on you means you will get every chance to succeed in most cases. they invested alot in you..they want a return.

if you get picked late in the first round, teams are generally better, havent invested as much in you..and really dont care.

we'll see how the donte thing works out. its all about the second contract with the NBA and NFL. that is where the big money is.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

SU will be patient with him, an NBA team likely will not.

Not sure if I agree with this. If a team investments a 1st round draft choice in him, they're going to be pretty patient for three or four seasons.

 

[ForeverOrange]

Well we all know the "dream" is to get paid, it's all the same. I think right now he is riding the wave of hype, he could come back but lets be real your not necessarily improving your draft standings coming back otherwise Kris Joseph should be a lottery pick. Right now he has the "potential" edge on his side the longer you stay in college your potential ceiling falls and people start to label you and your weaknesses. It's quite possible he realizes that he's not as good as his potential might suggest and he wants to get his while he can, can't fault him for that as long as he's smart with his money. Good luck DW

 

[IthacaMatt]

Dions not a lock for the first round...just seems rational to stick around and try to play himself into a lottery pick.

I can understand Fab Melo because of his size and skills but how many athletic two guards with an inconsistent shot declare for the NBA Every year?

If you aren't a lock to stay eligible, and your family is in terrible circumstances, then it makes the decision easier. Donte Greene wasn't ready when he went, and he has managed to stick around. I think Waiters is more ready than Donte Greene, because he won't be expected to rebound and defend such big guys as Greene. I think Waiters' driving ability will make him a scorer on nearly any team's second unit in the NBA. Waiters does appear to play pretty good defense, which is always a knock on SU guys, but I think that applies to the forwards and centers more than the guards.

Yes, he could work on his 3 point shot, and maybe play himself into the lottery next year. Or he might have an average year being the focal point of the offense, and plateau a bit, like Kris Joseph, or even Jared Sullinger, have done. Harrison Barnes is another. I think Dion is hot right now, has gotten a ton of media, and I think he makes the middle of the first round. What's the likelihood, statistically speaking, that we improve on a 1 loss regular season if he were to come back ?

This draft doesn't look that outstanding to me. I don't see him falling to the second round. I see him as being a better prospect than a couple guards listed ahead of him on some mock drafts. I'd say he goes somewhere in the 15-20 range.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Good point. His stock is up but was it last year there was a feeding frenzy on foreign players? Could happen again and push some legitimate first-rounders down the list, including Dion.

I think foreigners have been falling out of favor in the last few drafts. They used to take half the lottery spots, but you don't see that the past few years. Sometimes they don't come over to the US, sometimes they turn into Darko Milicic.

 

[IthacaMatt]

If you aren't a lock to stay eligible, and your family is in terrible circumstances, then it makes the decision easier. Donte Greene wasn't ready when he went, and he has managed to stick around. I think Waiters is more ready than Donte Greene, because he won't be expected to rebound and defend such big guys as Greene. I think Waiters' driving ability will make him a scorer on nearly any team's second unit in the NBA. Waiters does appear to play pretty good defense, which is always a knock on SU guys, but I think that applies to the forwards and centers more than the guards.

Yes, he could work on his 3 point shot, and maybe play himself into the lottery next year. Or he might have an average year being the focal point of the offense, and plateau a bit, like Kris Joseph, or even Jared Sullinger, have done. Harrison Barnes is another. I think Dion is hot right now, has gotten a ton of media, and I think he makes the middle of the first round. What's the likelihood, statistically speaking, that we improve on a 1 loss regular season if he were to come back ?

This draft doesn't look that outstanding to me. I don't see him falling to the second round. I see him as being a better prospect than a couple guards listed ahead of him on some mock drafts. I'd say he goes somewhere in the 15-20 range.

Let me add that going to Philly at 20 wouldn't be a bad pick - they do like to have hometown boys on their roster. The only other guy like him on Philly's squad is Jrue Holiday, and Dion is built 30 pounds stronger. They also have Jody Meeks, but he's more of a mid-range, pull up jump shooter than a guy who gets to the rim, despite being about 210 also.

 

[orangecuse]

But with Dion, his stock should only grow as he goes through the combine. His physical abilities, like his quickness, are the strongest parts of his game and I think he can only help himself out. I think top 20 pick.

The NBA is full of physical studs with great athletic ability...time a dozen. Dion isn't some athletic freak of nature for Pete's sake. I hope he does well, but it will be his skill set and how much he improves upon that which will ultimately determine his legacy, whether he goes 15 or 35, etc., in this year's draft.

 

[dollarbill44]

Not sure if I agree with this. If a team investments a 1st round draft choice in him, they're going to be pretty patient for three or four seasons.

There are an awful lot of high first round draft picks in recent years who might not agree with you - Johnny Flynn is one.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

There are an awful lot of high first round draft picks in recent years who might not agree with you - Johnny Flynn is one.

Better said then that a team will be invested in all or some of 3 to 4 years.

 

[OttoMets]

If you aren't a lock to stay eligible, and your family is in terrible circumstances, then it makes the decision easier. Donte Greene wasn't ready when he went, and he has managed to stick around. I think Waiters is more ready than Donte Greene, because he won't be expected to rebound and defend such big guys as Greene. I think Waiters' driving ability will make him a scorer on nearly any team's second unit in the NBA. Waiters does appear to play pretty good defense, which is always a knock on SU guys, but I think that applies to the forwards and centers more than the guards.

Yes, he could work on his 3 point shot, and maybe play himself into the lottery next year. Or he might have an average year being the focal point of the offense, and plateau a bit, like Kris Joseph, or even Jared Sullinger, have done. Harrison Barnes is another. I think Dion is hot right now, has gotten a ton of media, and I think he makes the middle of the first round. What's the likelihood, statistically speaking, that we improve on a 1 loss regular season if he were to come back ?

This draft doesn't look that outstanding to me. I don't see him falling to the second round. I see him as being a better prospect than a couple guards listed ahead of him on some mock drafts. I'd say he goes somewhere in the 15-20 range.

Good post. I worry that he's not ready and has sort of painted himself into a corner, but those are pretty compelling and level-headed points in favor of Dion declaring.

 

[tbonezone]

i have to disagree here . donte green as a frosh was a much better college player and had a more PRO ready game than dion does. dion ain't getting near the rim in the NBA and he's just not a great outside shooter.i'm just afraid Dion is D league bound if he jumps. then passport time.

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

Why do people assume that kids who come back will "play themselves into the lottery"... I imagine more often than not, the opposite happens. If you aren't a sure-fire star, why give them more tape, or show people that your game has hit a plateau (see Joseph, Kris) ?

Git while the gittin' is good Dion! Compound interest tells me that another year earning money is more beneficial than another year on the hill.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

i have to disagree here . donte green as a frosh was a much better college player and had a more PRO ready game than dion does. dion ain't getting near the rim in the NBA and he's just not a great outside shooter.

Donte Greene couldn't dribble. All wing players in the NBA can dribble somewhat. Wes Johnson excluded maybe.

Dion isn't a great shooter. There are a lot of guards in the NBA that aren't great shooters.

I think part of the reason people worry about Dion is because they think he'll be matching up against NBA starting two guards. He won't be. He'll be matching up against NBA backup point guards, and he's going to do very well in that matchup until he's ready to go up against NBA starting point guards.

 

[tbonezone]

well what i'm implying here is he'll be matching up against team OLYMPIAKOS.

 

[OrangePA]

http://blog.syracuse.com/orangebasketball/2012/03/syracuse_basketball_links_is_d.html

I do not think Dion is ready to play at the next level. I think he has enormous talent and an NBA body. But he does not know the game well enough to leave the college scene. He could use more maturing on and off the court.

But, if he is going to be drafted in the first round, and there are many who believe he will be drafted 20 or 26, I can't argue with the decision to take the guaranteed money and help his family.

Still, in the long run, the better decision I think would be to stay in school and develope as a player and person - and make even more money and most important - keep it.

 

[Orangeyes]

Talk about Dion at the 51 second mark

Fab Melo at 2:43