Is this team's defense too good?

[billsin01]

OK, so the short answer is obviously 'no.' But this post from Upstate got me thinking about why we seem to be playing so many ugly, low-scoring games despite being flush with athletes and forcing a ton of turnovers.

It's so annoying that the BE style of play against Syracuse has been to use 30 seconds on the shot clock and drive for a foul or kick for a 3. It really does make SU look bad, when they aren't as bad as this style of play makes them look. When SU is off to the ACC, there is no defense and there's actually an up and down flow to the game, which will benefit this team greatly.

My theory on the "annoying style" (which has been ugly and annoying) is that some of it has to do with the fact that SU's defense is simply really, really good and forcing many teams to use the whole clock just to try and find an open look.

The ability to force turnovers has something to do with this, but if you look at the last four years (I didn't feel like going further) you actually will find that this team is surrendering significantly fewer points despite not having that dramatic an improvement in opponents FG percentage and turnovers forced (not even accounting for getting abused on the glass regularly).

07-08
Opponents ppg: 74.3
Opponents FG%: .42
Opponents TO/g: 14.6

08-09

Opponents ppg: 71.3
Opponents FG%: .41
Opponents TO/g: 14.4


09-10

Opponents ppg: 66.4
Opponents FG%: .398
Opponents TO/g: 15.6


10-11

Opponents ppg: 63.3
Opponents FG%: .394
Opponents TO/g: 14.0


11-12

Opponents ppg: 60.8
Opponents FG%: .385
Opponents TO/g: 17.2

So what's the point? Well, obviously teams don't want to run with us if they don't have to (smart approach, IMO). They also are losing about 3 more possessions a game on average, which certain makes a difference. But I think a huge factor is that SU is not giving possessions away and once they set up their defense, teams have to work very hard to get a shot. In turn, this leads to teams running their offense the whole time but still chewing up 30 sec/possession and, by extension, shortening the game.

 

[longislandcuse]

Syracuse vs UK would be an insane defensive struggle with two teams who want to run. No idea what to even expect from that.

 

[jdubs30]

Syracuse vs UK would be an insane defensive struggle with two teams who want to run. No idea what to even expect from that.

UK fans think they can outrun us.


I hope Cal thinks that too.

 

[longislandcuse]

UK fans think they can outrun us.


I hope Cal thinks that too.

Me too, UK may have more NBA players but we have THE BEST transition game in college. Bring it on.

 

[BlueCurtain]

SU's defense is simply really, really good and forcing many teams to use the whole clock just to try and find an open look..

Overstated. Many teams are making no attempt to run their offense for 25 seconds... they just sit and dribble.

And Jardine and Waiters watch. Golf can be more interesting for those 25 seconds.

 

[grepal]

I think most fans prefer offense to defense, the cheers for a thunderous dunk seem to be louder and last longer then the cheers for a thunderous blocked shot. If a fan can live with a little less offense and more wins I believe most will be happy. As for Kentucky out running us maybe, but I wouldn't bet my house on it. Remember all of our guys can get more rest than their guys by playing zone and a deeper bench. The part about playing KY that makes me nervous is their offensive rebounding. If we do a great job in a game if we get to play Kentucky it will be hard for them to win. Of course it will take a tremendous effort and execution on SU's part to keep them off those boards. Anyway, if you could guarantee we get Kentucky in the Final Four right now I'll take it.

 

[billsin01]

Overstated. Many teams are making no attempt to run their offense for 25 seconds... they just sit and dribble.

And Jardine and Waiters watch. Golf can be more interesting for those 25 seconds.

That's excellent analysis. I realize teams are trying to slow things down. But there have been plenty of possessions -- L'ville and South Florida come to mind -- where teams have been desperately looking for shots and not been able to find them due to length and quickness etc.

I would agree that the far bigger factor is a fear of the transition opps this team gets and that it leads to boring, boring basketball. I just think this team's impressive defensive performance -- evident in the forced TOs, steals and opp FG percentage numbers -- extends to simply not surrendering many good looks in the course of a game.

 

[moqui]

the only thing I know for sure is that every time an opponent hits a deep three as the shot clock is winding down, Blue Curtain gives himself an oil check.

 

[HoustonCuse]

The only thing that makes me curious is how teams are crashing the offensive glass against us while also being so concerned about the transition game. Its nearly a miracle that teams can get away with this. If our forwards and centers could increase their defensive rebounding by even 10% we would pretty much blow out everyone because we'd either a) get tons of fast break points, or b) force teams not to crash the glass to prevent runouts which would then open them up to the full power of this defense (ie no, or many fewer second shots).

 

[SoBristol]

The more likely cause and effect is that our slow starts on offense allow (and even encourage) teams to play slow down.

If we shoot it better out of the gate, the game will speed up.

If we rebound better, the opponents don't get a second chance to run off another 30 seconds.

If we rebound and release it to transition, the game gets a whole lot more pretty.

Ugly comes back to slow starts, poor shooting, and giving up offensive rebounds.

 

[cusetown1]

I think this defense is very good and making it hard for teams to make shots. That being said, a forced shot often creates a long rebound, we aren't getting those rebounds. I've noticed many rebounds that were damn near impossible to get. I'm not making excuses it's just the nature of the zone defense.

 

[HoustonCuse]

The more likely cause and effect is that our slow starts on offense allow (and even encourage) teams to play slow down.

If we shoot it better out of the gate, the game will speed up.

If we rebound better, the opponents don't get a second chance to run off another 30 seconds.

If we rebound and release it to transition, the game gets a whole lot more pretty.

Ugly comes back to slow starts, poor shooting, and giving up offensive rebounds.

This is a good point. Syracuse has been notorious for slow starts. If we jumped out to a quick lead it would really hinder the slow down tactics, which would in-turn speed up the game causing more points for us and lessen the importance of o-rebounds even further.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Our team plays with the most intensity on the defensive end. When the team goes all out they are pretty good at whatever they do. Problem is once the shots go up alot of guys get caught watching or trying to run out vs getting back to grab the boards (the latter may be by design). With us forcing long, ackward shots you get alot of long ackward rebounds. If you have good box out position and the ball flies over both you and the other guy he's now at an advantage. How many rebounds do we see get tracked down on the sidelines or right inside the 3 point line by opposing guards or guys running out from under the basket?

Same thing on offense. When guys are moving things happen. When 3 guys stand outside passing along the arc with, an occasional screen coming out that doesn't get used, we look poor. Alot of times it's one guy moving and 4 guys standing which looks bad and ends in a guy going 1 on 2.

These aren't complaints as much as observations. SU looks like the best team in the country on D almost every possession until the shot goes up. On offense they look like the best team in the nation when they really want it which usually comes in spurts and probably equals about every other possession.

 

[RMH44]

The only thing that makes me curious is how teams are crashing the offensive glass against us while also being so concerned about the transition game. Its nearly a miracle that teams can get away with this. If our forwards and centers could increase their defensive rebounding by even 10% we would pretty much blow out everyone because we'd either a) get tons of fast break points, or b) force teams not to crash the glass to prevent runouts which would then open them up to the full power of this defense (ie no, or many fewer second shots).

Not sure that opponents necessarily "crash" the boards. Not to make excuses, but it's significantly more difficult to box out/rebound when playing zone, especially when our forwards are asked to cover so much floor on the high wing. In many cases, opponents beat our forwards to good rebounding position because our players have so much movement in the zone. That's why JB is relentless in demanding that the guards help out.

Most of our transition offense results from opponent TO's/steals rather than rebounds. So there is the trade-off...below average rebounding -vs- easy baskets initiated by steals.

 

[TinyManInside]

the final act of defense is securing the ball, through rebounding (most of the time), or through steals (less often). We're great at the steals part but still not great at the defensive rebounding part. I think our defense has been generally excellent this year, but it would be historically good if we could rebound about 20% better on the defensive end.

 

[TinyManInside]

Not sure that opponents necessarily "crash" the boards. Not to make excuses, but it's significantly more difficult to box out/rebound when playing zone, especially when our forwards are asked to cover so much floor on the high wing. In many cases, opponents beat our forwards to good rebounding position because our players have so much movement in the zone. That's why JB is relentless in demanding that the guards help out.

Most of our transition offense results from opponent TO's/steals rather than rebounds. So there is the trade-off...below average rebounding -vs- easy baskets initiated by steals.

Nice post and analysis. One thing that I would is that historically, physical teams like UConn, Pitt, and Louisville have designed their offenses so that a good portion of their 3 pt attempts come from the opposite side of our weakest wing rebounder. Then they overload the weak side with their best offensive rebounders and often we're caught in 2-on-1 type of situations. Very few teams are athletic enough to consistently pull this off, but if you go back and watch UConn when they had Charlie V. and Pitt when they had Blair, it was clearly a point of emphasis in Dixon's and Calhoun's zone offenses.

mason

 

[JOC44]

One quibble. I would say cutting opponent FG% from 42 to 38.5 is pretty significant.

 

[billsin01]

The more likely cause and effect is that our slow starts on offense allow (and even encourage) teams to play slow down.

If we shoot it better out of the gate, the game will speed up.

If we rebound better, the opponents don't get a second chance to run off another 30 seconds.

If we rebound and release it to transition, the game gets a whole lot more pretty.

Ugly comes back to slow starts, poor shooting, and giving up offensive rebounds.

I agree, particularly with the rebounding. But I still feel like teams aren't getting many good looks period, let alone good looks early in the shot clock.

I'd also suggest that shooting better may not really happen. I'm not saying they're a bad shooting team but guys like Waiters, Fair, and Scoop just aren't consistent from outside at this point in their careers. I really like Joseph and Triche as shooters but they're not in the Rautins/Devo class, IMO, where if they are open they are a pretty good bet to knock it down -- even coming off a screen. And while Fab has been excellent and shown flashes of becoming a legit threat offensively, this is still a team that's without a real threat in the post. When you add that combo together, I'm not sure you're going to see many 40-minute impressive offensive performances in games that are mostly half-court. Same issue with rebounding since Fair and KJ are what they are on the glass.