It could be down to Five Spots for Seven Teams in my View

[jncuse]

IF, the following happens which is not unreasonable
- Temple loses today (moves out of its "auto-bid" perch), and the AAC moves from 3 teams on the bracket to - UConn wins the AAC
- Michigan loses to Purdue
- No bid stealers

If Michigan and Temple lose today : It comes down to 5 spots for 7 teams:
Vanderbilt
Michigan
Oregon St
Syracuse
St Bonaventure
St Mary's
Monmouth

If Michigan win's today, its 4 spots for 6 teams.
Vanderbilt
Oregon St
Syracuse
St Bonaventure
St Mary's
Monmouth

If Michigan and Temple wins today, its 4 spots for 7 teams
Vanderbilt
Oregon St
Syracuse
St Bonaventure
St Mary's
Monmouth
UConn (back into the mix)

Every bid stealer decreases the ratio by one. Obviously I am picking on Oregon St more than others. I don't doubt after the committee has looked at things over and over this week, they are scratching their head at the Fake12 traditional metrics. The last of the Fake12 teams in the mix needs to worry about it's spot. Remember its #60 in KP.

 

[pearl31]

Completely concur on this

 

[jncuse]

And if we miss out in that discussion, I am fine with that. It's a crapshoot, and we deserve the fate. But we are definetely in the discussion and it is worth watching.

 

[Tom W.]

And if we miss out in that discussion, I am fine with that. It's a crapshoot, and we deserve the fate. But we are definetely in the discussion and it is worth watching.

My thoughts as well. I like our wins. I don't like our 3 sub 100 losses. If Michigan and Temple lose, I like our chances to be in the 5. No bid stealers is obviously key though.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

IMO the A10 and AAC only get 3 teams each. The "experts" are crazy if they think either conference gets 4 teams.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

The looming factor to me is that the NCAA can stick it to us. The door is open for that.

 

[pearl31]

IMO the A10 and AAC only get 3 teams each. The "experts" are crazy if they think either conference gets 4 teams.

aac won't get 3 unless temple beats ucon today - if ucon wins (and wins tomorrow over Memphis/Tulane) it will be just ucon/Cincy getting bids

 

[jncuse]

IMO the A10 and AAC only get 3 teams each. The "experts" are crazy if they think either conference gets 4 teams.

I think the AAC will only get 2 if UConn does what it is supposed to.

 

[pearl31]

It's just going to be so very, very, very close tomorrow. If we get in it will be by the thinnest of margins and if we're left out it will by an equally thin margin.
I would not be surprised if right now in the committee room, on their big white board, "Syracuse" is written alone off to the side with maybe a couple of question marks. Probably some real debate going on over us.

 

[Marsh01]

Bilas, davis, williams and greenberg all have su in as of now

 

[KaiserUEO]

Bilas, davis, williams and greenberg all have su in as of now

Bills & Greenberg are on the payroll, but Davis & Williams made me happy.

It makes sense.

Gonna be Fn close.

 

[jncuse]

The Bracket Matrix updated for only Today's Submissions


IN (in out of 56), but not locks
Cincinnati (55)
Oregon St (54)
UConn (54) vs #60 Temple
VCU (53) vs #57 Davidson
Wichita St (49)
St. Bonaventure (46)
Michigan (42) vs #16 Purdue
St. Mary's (37)
South Carolina (36)
Monmouth (27)

OUT, but still in discussion
Vanderbilt (22)
Syracuse (20)
Temple vs #44 UConn
Florida (6)
Valparaiso (5)

35% have us in. But what is interesting is all the teams between 20 and 46. Certainly not a clear consensus out there on the bottom teams.

I also noted a whole bunch of people have turned on South Carolina in the last 24 hours. I will be honest it snuck up on me. They are now down to 62% of the brackets. I still don't bye Oregon St at all and I am surprised that they are in on 96% of the brackets. Maybe I should replace Oregon St with South Carolina in my 5 of 7 scenario... or should it be 6 of 8?

 

[Chris02M]

The Bracket Matrix updated for only Today's Submissions


IN (in out of 56), but not locks
Cincinnati (55)
Oregon St (54)
UConn (54) vs #60 Temple
VCU (53) vs #57 Davidson
Wichita St (49)
St. Bonaventure (46)
Michigan (42) vs #16 Purdue
St. Mary's (37)
South Carolina (36)
Monmouth (27)

OUT, but still in discussion
Vanderbilt (22)
Syracuse (20)
Temple vs #44 UConn
Florida (6)
Valparaiso (5)

35% have us in. But what is interesting is all the teams between 20 and 46. Certainly not a clear consensus out there on the bottom teams.

I also noted a whole bunch of people have turned on South Carolina in the last 24 hours. I will be honest it snuck up on me. They are now down to 62% of the brackets. I still don't bye Oregon St at all and I am surprised that they are in on 96% of the brackets. Maybe I should replace Oregon St with South Carolina in my 5 of 7 scenario... or should it be 6 of 8?

i think south carolina gets in 8 top 50 wins is enought probably in the 9- or 10 seed though

 

[OrlandoCuse]

For the love of god, Monmouth isn't getting in. They're not even on the bubble. Their RPI is inflated because they played a bunch of road games (purposely) early in the year. Teams with 2 top 100 wins don't get in.

 

[NineOneSeven]

i think south carolina gets in 8 top 50 wins is enought probably in the 9- or 10 seed though

SC absolutely in

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Also, St Mary's is not getting in. Only 2 top 100 wins and LEFT THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA ONCE DURING THE WHOLE YEAR. Sorry, not getting in.

 

[Chris02M]

For the love of god, Monmouth isn't getting in. They're not even on the bubble. Their RPI is inflated because they played a bunch of road games (purposely) early in the year. Teams with 2 top 100 wins don't get in.

they have 4 top 100 wins as of last night

 

[Chris02M]

Also, St Mary's is not getting in. Only 2 top 100 wins and LEFT THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA ONCE DURING THE WHOLE YEAR. Sorry, not getting in.

6 top 100 for st marys too

 

[OrlandoCuse]

they have 4 top 100 wins as of last night

Right now they have 2, but I don't think it changes the point that they're not getting in.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Right now they have 2, but I don't think it changes the point that they're not getting in.

BUT THEY'RE A CINDERELLA BABY!

In all honesty it is tough on these schools from smaller conferences.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

6 top 100 for st marys too

Realtimerpi's $ indicator appears to not be updating.

Doesn't change the fact that they didn't leave CA until they played Gonzaga in late February.

 

[pearl31]

I think there will now be some heavy duty debate going on in that room re SU-Michigan

 

[STEVEHOLT]

My thoughts as well. I like our wins. I don't like our 3 sub 100 losses. If Michigan and Temple lose, I like our chances to be in the 5. No bid stealers is obviously key though.

better to have good wins and bad losses than to have no bad losses but Meh wins. Who can you beat . All the bubble teams have proven they can lose just fine.

 

[CorduroyG]

I think there will now be some heavy duty debate going on in that room re SU-Michigan

Yea i feel like 1 of them is getting in but not both.

 

[Marsh01]

our win over Texas A&M, the SEC regular-season champ and likely the SEC tournament champ is huge. Plus Duke and ND and 2 bubble competitors UConn and Bona.

I'm feeling pretty good about where we are right now