It could be down to Five Spots for Seven Teams in my View

[Chris02M]

Right now they have 2, but I don't think it changes the point that they're not getting in.

they have a chance

 

[Chris02M]

Realtimerpi's $ indicator appears to not be updating.

Doesn't change the fact that they didn't leave CA until they played Gonzaga in late February.

yea i agree the are not in my field

 

[OrlandoCuse]

they have a chance

Please validate your claim. I don't see it.

 

[Chris02M]

Please validate your claim. I don't see it.

non conference sos and 17 road neutral wins 2 wins over teams in the field are hard to ignore.

 

[longislandcuse]

I like Georgia. Wish I could root for them right now. They've been an under the radar fun team the past few years.

 

[AZOrange]

our win over Texas A&M, the SEC regular-season champ and likely the SEC tournament champ is huge. Plus Duke and ND and 2 bubble competitors UConn and Bona.

I'm feeling pretty good about where we are right now

Really? I dont

 

[pearl31]

Really? I dont

based on what?

 

[AZOrange]

based on what?

Our season.

 

[pearl31]

Our season.

Other teams have season too

 

[AZOrange]

Other teams have season too

Yeah but nothing about ours leaves me feeling "pretty good" about tomm...

 

[OrlandoCuse]

non conference sos and 17 road neutral wins 2 wins over teams in the field are hard to ignore.

RPI overweights road wins. Monmouth knew that when they scheduled those games.

I'd argue a bunch of road wins vs sub 200 RPI teams don't mean much.

Many teams not going to the tourney have two wins over the tourney field. Clemson has 3 wins over top 20 RPI teams but no one is arguing they should be in the tourney.

Monmouth isn't making it in. It's not even worth having a conversation about them. They can't hang their hat on a win over Notre Dame to get them in.

 

[jncuse]

IF, the following happens which is not unreasonable
- Temple loses today (moves out of its "auto-bid" perch), and the AAC moves from 3 teams on the bracket to - UConn wins the AAC
- Michigan loses to Purdue
- No bid stealers

If Michigan and Temple lose today : It comes down to 5 spots for 7 teams:
Vanderbilt
Michigan
Oregon St
Syracuse
St Bonaventure
St Mary's
Monmouth

If Michigan win's today, its 4 spots for 6 teams.
Vanderbilt
Oregon St
Syracuse
St Bonaventure
St Mary's
Monmouth

If Michigan and Temple wins today, its 4 spots for 7 teams
Vanderbilt
Oregon St
Syracuse
St Bonaventure
St Mary's
Monmouth
UConn (back into the mix)

Every bid stealer decreases the ratio by one. Obviously I am picking on Oregon St more than others. I don't doubt after the committee has looked at things over and over this week, they are scratching their head at the Fake12 traditional metrics. The last of the Fake12 teams in the mix needs to worry about it's spot. Remember its #60 in KP.

So given today's results
- Michigan lost
- Temple lost but seems to be in at large conversation
- San Diego St lost but seems to now be in the large conversation
- After this post I realized that South Carolina probably should have their "IN" Bid Exposed as well
- Let's add Valpo just to be sage.
- And bring back Wichita St as they don't have full consensus.
- And Florida has 10 of 76 on today's matrix.

So the 5 for 7, becomes 7 for 13 as we add
South Carolina and Wichita St (whose bids should be in question)
Temple
San Diego St
Valpo
Florida

So 7 of 13

Oregon St
Wichita St
St Bonaventure
St Mary's
Michigan
South Carolina
Vanderbilt
----
Monmouth
Syracuse
Temple
San Diego St
Florida
Valparaiso




Syracuse
Michigan
Temple
San Diego St
South Carolina
Valaparaiso

 

[pearl31]

So given today's results
- Michigan lost
- Temple lost but seems to be in at large conversation
- San Diego St lost but seems to now be in the large conversation
- After this post I realized that South Carolina probably should have their "IN" Bid Exposed as well
- Let's add Valpo just to be sage.
- And bring back Wichita St as they don't have full consensus.
- And Florida has 10 of 76 on today's matrix.

So the 5 for 7, becomes 7 for 13 as we add
South Carolina and Wichita St (whose bids should be in question)
Temple
San Diego St
Valpo
Florida

So 7 of 13

Oregon St
Wichita St
St Bonaventure
St Mary's
Michigan
South Carolina
Vanderbilt
----
Monmouth
Syracuse
Temple
San Diego St
Florida
Valparaiso




Syracuse
Michigan
Temple
San Diego St
South Carolina
Valaparaiso

Looks like you only have 6 in that bottom group - I'm assuming that's the group you're saying gets in

 

[jdubs30]

So given today's results
- Michigan lost
- Temple lost but seems to be in at large conversation
- San Diego St lost but seems to now be in the large conversation
- After this post I realized that South Carolina probably should have their "IN" Bid Exposed as well
- Let's add Valpo just to be sage.
- And bring back Wichita St as they don't have full consensus.
- And Florida has 10 of 76 on today's matrix.

So the 5 for 7, becomes 7 for 13 as we add
South Carolina and Wichita St (whose bids should be in question)
Temple
San Diego St
Valpo
Florida

So 7 of 13

Oregon St
Wichita St
St Bonaventure
St Mary's
Michigan
South Carolina
Vanderbilt
----
Monmouth
Syracuse
Temple
San Diego St
Florida
Valparaiso




Syracuse
Michigan
Temple
San Diego St
South Carolina
Valaparaiso

This makes me nervous. Which 2 teams do we overcome in that first group? We have to hope the committee doesn't give the mid-majors much credit

 

[jncuse]

Looks like you only have 6 in that bottom group - I'm assuming that's the group you're saying gets in

That was just the matrix line of in/out. I removed it in the new thread as it could be confusing.

 

[KaiserUEO]

This makes me nervous. Which 2 teams do we overcome in that first group? We have to hope the committee doesn't give the mid-majors much credit

They shouldn't, they're mids.

them.

Stay out of my tourney.

 

[jdubs30]

Halftime of UNC/Duke with Reece/Jay/Seth ... they showed Lunardi's lastest Last 4 in/Last 4 out (we were at the last spot in Last 4 out) .. Reece said "any issue with what you see here?" in unison Jay and Seth said "Syracuse" .. Seth said we have to be in , Jay said we are absolutely in and if you don't want to take Monmouth out, take out SDSU and put us in.

We have momentum from the media being in..not sure it matters I guess though.

 

[KaiserUEO]

I'm ready to slot the Tourney like Bowl Bids.

Screw this not knowing frustrating nervousness.

The ACC gets 9.

Th big east 3.

The maac 1.

The the wcc 1.

The AAC 1.

Etc...