Jaw dropping stat about our offense last year from ESPN's David Hale

[SUFan44]

2012: 61% TD, 76% TD or FG
2011: 60%, 72%
2010: 65%, 77%
2009: 57%, 76%
2008: 72%, 87%

By contrast:

SU last season: 40%, 80%

Keep in mind the TD or FG stat is tough to measure against D3, because trust me, decent kickers are extremely hard to find at the D3 level so the points are going to be left off the board with staggering frequency when you have to attempt a field goal over 25 yards. Any mediocre kicker is going to find his way into a D1, 1AA, D2, or NAIA program.

That's an excuse. Elmurst kicker was 7/8 on FG in '11, 6/9 on FG in '10, 8/16 on FG in '09, 6/10 on FG in '08. One horrific year, the other three were 70.3%.

Syracuse kickers over the last four years: 17/23 (73.9%), 11/17 (64.7%), 15/23 (65.2%), 15/19 (78.9%). Overall 58/82 = 70.7%. Not all that different.

And you may say "Well they probably went for it on 4th down way more because they needed to avoid a longer distance FG due to kicking concerns"... Well, Elmhurst went 6/19 on 4th down in '11, 7/19 on 4th in '10, 15/21 on 4th in '09 & 15/21 in '08. So a total of 80 attempts. Over the last 4 years, SU has went for it on 4th down 12, 17, 19 and 17. 65 times. So 15 times less than Elmhurst over the course of 50 games. Once ever 3.3 games more. Not significant.

Those numbers in the red zone are mediocre at best. Syracuse has been AWFUL in red zone over last 3 years (66.7%, 111th of 128 D1 teams). His mark of 77.6% over his 5 years would rank 89th. Not good.

 

[jekelish]

That's an excuse. Elmurst kicker was 7/8 on FG in '11, 6/9 on FG in '10, 8/16 on FG in '09, 6/10 on FG in '08. One horrific year, the other three were 70.3%.

Syracuse kickers over the last four years: 17/23 (73.9%), 11/17 (64.7%), 15/23 (65.2%), 15/19 (78.9%). Overall 58/82 = 70.7%. Not all that different.

And you may say "Well they probably went for it on 4th down way more because they needed to avoid a longer distance FG due to kicking concerns"... Well, Elmhurst went 6/19 on 4th down in '11, 7/19 on 4th in '10, 15/21 on 4th in '09 & 15/21 in '08. So a total of 80 attempts. Over the last 4 years, SU has went for it on 4th down 12, 17, 19 and 17. 65 times. So 15 times less than Elmhurst over the course of 50 games. Once ever 3.3 games more. Not significant.

It's not an excuse. Elmhurst may have had a solid FG kicker. I didn't bother looking. Just from my own first hand observations, kickers at the D3 level pretty much suck.

Also - what's my excuse FOR, exactly, in your mind? Again, all I was saying was that hey, most D3 kickers are terrible and can't hit a field goal longer than 25 yards. There are obviously some exceptions, but not many.

 

[SUFan44]

It's not an excuse. Elmhurst may have had a solid FG kicker. I didn't bother looking. Just from my own first hand observations, kickers at the D3 level pretty much suck.

Also - what's my excuse FOR, exactly, in your mind? Again, all I was saying was that hey, most D3 kickers are terrible and can't hit a field goal longer than 25 yards. There are obviously some exceptions, but not many.

You're making a built in excuse for Lester by saying his kicker was probably bad.

He had a bad red zone offense during his time at Elmhurst. And it wasn't the kicker's fault.

 

[RF2044]

That's what some still don't seem to fully recognize. We weren't just bad offensively last year, we were a level of bad that is almost impossible to achieve in today's game.

I still cannot completely get wrap my brain around the fact that after that kind of "historically poor" performance that we did not even pretend to conduct a real search for an OC.

I'm a fan, and I want nothing but the best for the program, and I want Shafer to be wildly successful. But let's just say that he's employing a management style that I find disconcerting.

Nicely stated. Your first paragraph is why I roll my eyes every time I see a post proclaiming that our offensive skilled talent is "good enough."

I don't see anyone on this roster who can do what a Stefon Diggs or Davante Parker did for their respective teams. Maybe a guy like Ishmael could emerge as that level of talent [then again, maybe he'd be a #3 type on a really good team], or that a guy like Estime will bounce back and give us a dimension of elusiveness we clearly lacked lsat year. I just don't see much evidence to suggest that the lack of playmaking will somehow not be an issue this year.

 

[jekelish]

You're making a built in excuse for Lester by saying his kicker was probably bad.

He had a bad red zone offense during his time at Elmhurst. And it wasn't the kicker's fault.

No, I'm not doing that at all. I was looking at his red zone stats and noting they were 20-30% higher in scoring touchdowns in the red zone than last year at SU.

Kickers at the D3 level are lousy. That's not even debatable. He had a decent one there, that's fine. I didn't bother to look at his kicker's stats. I just made the assumption that his kicker probably wasn't particularly good, which is obviously my mistake. I'm not a Lester defender, so why the hell would I bother giving him a built in excuse? I'm a "wait and see" person in terms of what his offense can do here.

 

[jekelish]

Nicely stated. Your first paragraph is why I roll my eyes every time I see a post proclaiming that our offensive skilled talent is "good enough."

I don't see anyone on this roster who can do what a Stefon Diggs or Davante Parker did for their respective teams. Maybe a guy like Ishmael could emerge as that level of talent [then again, maybe he'd be a #3 type on a really good team], or that a guy like Estime will bounce back and give us a dimension of elusiveness we clearly lacked lsat year. I just don't see much evidence to suggest that the lack of playmaking will somehow not be an issue this year.

I think we have a couple high level talents. I think Ishmael is one of them. He's a guy who would be a player on many, many teams, and I think he's an NFL talent. But after him...yeah, that's where we definitely fall off. I think Philips could develop into a real playmaker. I'm honestly not sure about the rest of our skill position players, though. But I don't think Ishmael would be the #3 on most rosters. I think he'd be #2 at worst on MOST rosters. Obviously, I'm very bullish on his talent level.

 

[Scooch]

Nicely stated. Your first paragraph is why I roll my eyes every time I see a post proclaiming that our offensive skilled talent is "good enough."

I don't see anyone on this roster who can do what a Stefon Diggs or Davante Parker did for their respective teams. Maybe a guy like Ishmael could emerge as that level of talent [then again, maybe he'd be a #3 type on a really good team], or that a guy like Estime will bounce back and give us a dimension of elusiveness we clearly lacked lsat year. I just don't see much evidence to suggest that the lack of playmaking will somehow not be an issue this year.

The thread about Madei Williams sent me to Google, and I stumbled across the YouTube video of our game against Michigan in '99.

Our RBs that year were Dee Brown and James Mungro. Kyle Johnson was our FB. Our top receivers were Quinton Spotwood, Pat Woodcock and Stephen Brominski. Honestly I would take all 6 of those guys over anyone we have right now.

I actually think our talent is enough to be a mediocre offense and win ~6 games, if we had top flight offensive coaching. But...

 

[jekelish]

The thread about Madei Williams sent me to Google, and I stumbled across the YouTube video of our game against Michigan in '99.

Our RBs that year were Dee Brown and James Mungro. Kyle Johnson was our FB. Our top receivers were Quinton Spotwood, Pat Woodcock and Stephen Brominski. Honestly I would take all 6 of those guys over anyone we have right now.

I actually think our talent is enough to be a mediocre offense and win ~6 games, if we had top flight offensive coaching. But...

I would take Steve Ishmael over Woodcock but otherwise I agree. By the way, Kyle Johnson is one of the most under appreciated players of the last 20 years. That dude was fantastic.

 

[RF2044]

I think we have a couple high level talents. I think Ishmael is one of them. He's a guy who would be a player on many, many teams, and I think he's an NFL talent. But after him...yeah, that's where we definitely fall off. I think Philips could develop into a real playmaker. I'm honestly not sure about the rest of our skill position players, though. But I don't think Ishmael would be the #3 on most rosters. I think he'd be #2 at worst on MOST rosters. Obviously, I'm very bullish on his talent level.

I like Ishmael--a lot. Forgive me for adopting a wait-and-see stance--I just want to see if Lester is appreciably better at OC, whether Hunt can bounce back in a big way for his senior year, etc. I'm honestly not confident about all of the offensive question marks being answered positively--and as you know, I'm about as generally optimistic of a poster as they come.

Would LOVE to be proven wrong, but I need to see it on the field.

 

[jekelish]

I like Ishmael--a lot. Forgive me for adopting a wait-and-see stance--I just want to see if Lester is appreciably better at OC, whether Hunt can bounce back in a big way for his senior year, etc. I'm honestly not confident about all of the offensive question marks being answered positively--and as you know, I'm about as generally optimistic of a poster as they come.

Would LOVE to be proven wrong, but I need to see it on the field.

I agree with this. And as talented as I think Ishmael is--he can't do anything unless our OL and QB play is significantly improved. You can be the best WR in the world but unless you have a QB and a system that can get the ball in your hands, it doesn't matter.

 

[Scooch]

I would take Steve Ishmael over Woodcock but otherwise I agree. By the way, Kyle Johnson is one of the most under appreciated players of the last 20 years. That dude was fantastic.

I figured he was the guy people would seize on. But Woodock caught 24 passes for 16.8 yards/catch and 3 TDs in '99. And of course that was a team that rarely threw (271 attempts in 12 games!). Ishmael may be more athletic (and is a year younger of course), but Woodcock was very productive. If we got that kind of relative production from Ishmael this year it would mean he's catching 45 passes for 5-6 TDs.

 

[jekelish]

I figured he was the guy people would seize on. But Woodock caught 24 passes for 16.8 yards/catch and 3 TDs in '99. And of course that was a team that rarely threw (271 attempts in 12 games!). Ishmael may be more athletic (and is a year younger of course), but Woodcock was very productive. If we got that kind of relative production from Ishmael this year it would mean he's catching 45 passes for 5-6 TDs.

Oh I know, Woodcock was productive. But he was absolutely an overachiever. Nothing wrong with that at all. But I still think that Ishmael will be one of the top 7-8 receivers in Syracuse history by the time he's done.

No pressure, Steve.

 

[Scooch]

Oh I know, Woodcock was productive. But he was absolutely an overachiever. Nothing wrong with that at all. But I still think that Ishmael will be one of the top 7-8 receivers in Syracuse history by the time he's done.

No pressure, Steve.

We only started throwing the ball in the past 10 years, so becoming a top 7-8 receiver for SU isn't all it's cracked up to be, statistically.

But I think you get my broader point... I read a lot of people gushing about our talent improvement, but aside from a handful of guys, I don't see it. We had far more talented teams 15+ years ago that only won 6-7 games.

 

[PhatOrange]

Listen it obvious we had injuries at the QB position and that is a factor for struggling. However, it is not an excuse for having the 3rd lowest scoring output in 5 games in the last 10 years. Coaching has to scheme with what they have on the field. The last 5 games were all Lester in charge the guy hasn't proven a thing yet. We should all support him and hope we can improve, but nobody in their right mind can believe this guy has proven he can coach a productive D-1 offense after what we have seen.

We all want to win, but I want to see it before I believe it and don't think the staff being on notice is unfair.

sure it is. you'r asking a sc o u t team QB to score points against 1st string defenses with an offense that isn't the OC's offense.

 

[jekelish]

We only started throwing the ball in the past 10 years, so becoming a top 7-8 receiver for SU isn't all it's cracked up to be, statistically.

But I think you get my broader point... I read a lot of people gushing about our talent improvement, but aside from a handful of guys, I don't see it. We had far more talented teams 15+ years ago that only won 6-7 games.

Oh, I definitely get it. Sadly I think there are a precious few guys on our current offensive roster who would crack the 2-deep for some of those teams. I just happen to think that Ishmael would have easily displaced Woodcock in the lineup as the WR2.

 

[Pyle]

sure it is. you'r asking a sc o u t team QB to score points against 1st string defenses with an offense that isn't the OC's offense.

Everyone needs to read this, then read it again, then read it again. Historically bad? Yes Impossible? No.

I challenge anyone on this board to find me an offense that did well with a 4th string QB, a fired OC mid-season, and a playbook nobody understood. The guy who had to learn every other teams offense each week suddenly had to learn ours and execute it at a D1 level without more than a few days of first team reps. I'm not saying we have uber amounts of talent that were hidden last because of this stuff. But you need to take what happened last year and flush it, too much went wrong too fast.

 

[Alsacs]

You said there are people that think "Lester has proven something"... I don't think I've seen anyone saying that?

There are people who think Shafer should get 2016 automatically. I think barring the same result as last season - he should be back.

Shafer has tied his future as SU HC to how Lester does as OC. Based on what he has seen there is reason for people to be skeptical about Lester.

 

[Millhouse]

Everyone needs to read this, then read it again, then read it again. Historically bad? Yes Impossible? No.

I challenge anyone on this board to find me an offense that did well with a 4th string QB, a fired OC mid-season, and a playbook nobody understood. The guy who had to learn every other teams offense each week suddenly had to learn ours and execute it at a D1 level without more than a few days of first team reps. I'm not saying we have uber amounts of talent that were hidden last because of this stuff. But you need to take what happened last year and flush it, too much went wrong too fast.

nice challenge. no one expected them to do well. they're a long way from well.

i challenge you to find more than 2 teams who did worse with 4th string QB, a fired OC mid-season, and a playbook nobody understood.

 

[Alsacs]

Everyone needs to read this, then read it again, then read it again. Historically bad? Yes Impossible? No.

I challenge anyone on this board to find me an offense that did well with a 4th string QB, a fired OC mid-season, and a playbook nobody understood. The guy who had to learn every other teams offense each week suddenly had to learn ours and execute it at a D1 level without more than a few days of first team reps. I'm not saying we have uber amounts of talent that were hidden last because of this stuff. But you need to take what happened last year and flush it, too much went wrong too fast.

Go watch the Pitt and BC games our offense even with 4th string QBs LOOKED CLOWN SHOW bad. We didn't have a game plan except to try and get the games over without being completely embarrassed. The games matter I didn't expect to see Lester to work a miracle, but what we saw was not college football division 1 ACC caliber offense. Lester has to realize the fanbase isn't exactly sold based on what we saw last year.

 

[Full_Rebar]

BC lost Andre Williams, a 4-yr starter in Rettig, and their top WR in Amidon heading into 2014. They plugged a 5th yr grad transfer in at QB (who was one-dimensional and couldn't get the job at Florida), and they made a bowl game. They had 2 NFL Draft picks on the OL, so they had talent and experience there, yet they found a way to be competitive and win enough to make a bowl game.

We can continue to make excuses, or we can ask highly-paid (even if it's bottom of the ACC) coaches to develop a system/scheme/plan to win football games against comparable opponents. I'm not saying go win games at FSU or Clemson, but for Syracuse to be non-competitive against Pitt and BC is concerning.

 

[retro44]

That's an excuse. Elmurst kicker was 7/8 on FG in '11, 6/9 on FG in '10, 8/16 on FG in '09, 6/10 on FG in '08. One horrific year, the other three were 70.3%.

Syracuse kickers over the last four years: 17/23 (73.9%), 11/17 (64.7%), 15/23 (65.2%), 15/19 (78.9%). Overall 58/82 = 70.7%. Not all that different.

And you may say "Well they probably went for it on 4th down way more because they needed to avoid a longer distance FG due to kicking concerns"... Well, Elmhurst went 6/19 on 4th down in '11, 7/19 on 4th in '10, 15/21 on 4th in '09 & 15/21 in '08. So a total of 80 attempts. Over the last 4 years, SU has went for it on 4th down 12, 17, 19 and 17. 65 times. So 15 times less than Elmhurst over the course of 50 games. Once ever 3.3 games more. Not significant.

Those numbers in the red zone are mediocre at best. Syracuse has been AWFUL in red zone over last 3 years (66.7%, 111th of 128 D1 teams). His mark of 77.6% over his 5 years would rank 89th. Not good.

Could be if you factor in the distance of each kick made and missed..

 

[PhatOrange]

BC lost Andre Williams, a 4-yr starter in Rettig, and their top WR in Amidon heading into 2014. They plugged a 5th yr grad transfer in at QB (who was one-dimensional and couldn't get the job at Florida), and they made a bowl game. They had 2 NFL Draft picks on the OL, so they had talent and experience there, yet they found a way to be competitive and win enough to make a bowl game.

We can continue to make excuses, or we can ask highly-paid (even if it's bottom of the ACC) coaches to develop a system/scheme/plan to win football games against comparable opponents. I'm not saying go win games at FSU or Clemson, but for Syracuse to be non-competitive against Pitt and BC is concerning.

BC also went through the season with 5 5th year starting offensive lineman, and Taylor was a Gator. Who cares if he didn't play at Florida. He rushed for 1,000 yards and passed for another 1,500. He was leaps and bounds more talented than any QB on our roster. Oh and BC also had 2 wins against 1AA teams.

We'll see how they do this year.

It doesn’t matter the sport. At the pro level when you’re resorting to guys called up from double A level you’re gonna struggle. Pro NFL teams struggle with backups and so does the NBA and these guys are ALL pro’s.

 

[Scooch]

There's being bad, and there's being non-functional. This team gained 255 total yards against Pitt. That's... I mean... worse than Parianian.

I'm willing to flush last year, what choice do we have.

I'd feel a helluva lot better if we were starting fresh with a new OC. But it's Shafer's ship. Hopefully we're not headed for an iceberg.

 

[PhatOrange]

Yes Pitt and BC games were bad, but you're talking sc o ut team QB's.

Pitt

AJ Long – 10 for 19 and 1 int
Mitch Kimble – 0 for 6 and 1 int

BC
AJ Long – 7 for 18 and 1 int
Austin Wilson – 1 for 2 and 1 int


Not good numbers. Neither Leach or Spurrier or Urban Meyer would do much better, because it’s not easy making chicken salad our of chick sheet.

Then again there’s NC State where Lester and AJ put up 345 yards or Wake where they put up 370. Not great but it was more than both teams put up against us.

Against Florida State they put up 412 and scored 20

Or you could look at Terrell’s games and say he put up 464, 589, and 429.

So Maybe WITH Terrell, and a more competent OC there will be scoreboard improvement?

I'm flushing last year and everyone has a clean slate. If it's historically bad again then ...

 

[Pyle]

BC lost Andre Williams, a 4-yr starter in Rettig, and their top WR in Amidon heading into 2014. They plugged a 5th yr grad transfer in at QB (who was one-dimensional and couldn't get the job at Florida), and they made a bowl game. They had 2 NFL Draft picks on the OL, so they had talent and experience there, yet they found a way to be competitive and win enough to make a bowl game.

We can continue to make excuses, or we can ask highly-paid (even if it's bottom of the ACC) coaches to develop a system/scheme/plan to win football games against comparable opponents. I'm not saying go win games at FSU or Clemson, but for Syracuse to be non-competitive against Pitt and BC is concerning.

5th year grad student from Florida vs Mitch Kimbell who transferred to Eastern Illinois before becoming a junior. Did BC also fire their OC and run a playbook nobody understands?