JB has quietly become an excellent NCAA tournament coach

[billsin01]

http://orangehoops.org/Bball.htm

pre 87 was 2 sweet 16s and a lot of 1st and 2nd round losses so it makes his case worse.

but the 5th final 4 on top of the natty speaks volumes for him. he aint got nothin to worry about.

Just meant that I was too young to really know prior to the 87 run so I don't have any context for those years.

 

[Nicknack]

The reality is, Syracuse has had 20 McDonald's AAs, dook had 69 and UK had 53. It's not even close. JB has done quite well with the talent he has had and if DC makes his free throws or Rony doesn't miss a jam earlier in the game, he has 1 more NC.

100% agree.

I remember saying for a while to my wife (who's entire family went to Dook) that it's actually AMAZING that Dook only has three championships with the talent they get every year. Really amazing. Then, unfortunately, Butler came around and they picked up their fourth and last year they got their fifth. Still though, when you think about the talent that especially Dook and Kentucky gets every darn year, one could legitimately say that they are under performing.

 

[Orangemen]

Agree mostly (and it's good analysis), but the Onuaku injury has taken on a life of its own. Yes, it eliminated us as title favorites. But few at the time used it as an excuse (the pre-game thread looked a lot like the one before the Middle Tennessee State game). Our bracket opened up, with Michigan State suffering an injury to an even more indispensable player. We blew that Butler game with the personnel we had, due to both poor execution by many players and an obstinate, head-scratching coaching strategy (high-low offense, stall, tempo decisions).

I think we've been fine, on the whole, since Richmond. Probably no worse than our peers and better than a lot of them. Everyone's got a Vermont in their recent history. It was 1977-1986 (or even 1991) that biased a lot of people toward Boeheim. His results have improved a ton since then.

I don't agree with that. Onuaku going down was a huge blow to that team. As soon as he was out I felt like we lost our shot at the NC. That was a huge blow.

We had to play dashonte Riley in tourney games instead of a guy who was shooting something crazy like 60-70% from the floor. It was a huge loss, equally as big as losing Melo IMO.

 

[HOFCeluck]

You can massage the results as much as you want.

Ttohe fact it's that at the time we lost to Marquette in 2011 JB had been past the sweet 16 four times. For a 35 year hall of fame career those results are...not great.

five seasons since then we've had three sweet sixteen wins (and two final fours). That should help perception a little.

 

[billsin01]

Agree mostly (and it's good analysis), but the Onuaku injury has taken on a life of its own. Yes, it eliminated us as title favorites. But few at the time used it as an excuse (the pre-game thread looked a lot like the one before the Middle Tennessee State game). Our bracket opened up, with Michigan State suffering an injury to an even more indispensable player. We blew that Butler game with the personnel we had, due to both poor execution by many players and an obstinate, head-scratching coaching strategy (high-low offense, stall, tempo decisions).

I think we've been fine, on the whole, since Richmond. Probably no worse than our peers and better than a lot of them. Everyone's got a Vermont in their recent history. It was 1977-1986 (or even 1991) that biased a lot of people toward Boeheim. His results have improved a ton since then.

I try not to worry about what-ifs but I have a blind spot with Onuaku b/c I loved him -- used his body so well. So I probably overrate him in my head. If I'm being completely honest about it, it's probably more about Brad Stevens being a phenomenal head coach and/or JB not quite pulling the right strings, but it's tough to admit that b/c I loved that team so much. As much as the 03 team I think.

But I agree with your point on the early years. The other thing that the resume lacked until 96 was the big upset and surprise run for a team that wasn't the most talented. They were close on both Mizzou and Arkansas, but hadn't pulled it off. To pull 96 out of the hat seemed to take a lot more pressure off, IMO. Then to add 13 and now 16 to the mix, I can't really imagine people will still be hammering JB with this.

 

[billsin01]

You can massage the results as much as you want.

Ttohe fact it's that at the time we lost to Marquette in 2011 JB had been past the sweet 16 four times. For a 35 year hall of fame career those results are...not great.

five seasons since then we've had three sweet sixteen (and two final fours). That should help perception a little.

I'm pretty sure I just listed the results and added comments. Not sure where I massaged anything. But he's a hall of fame coach b/c he has his team in position to do something basically every year. that's harder than it looks and I wonder if Pitt might realize this soon. But the coaches that are constantly making deep runs in the tourney are the elite guys -- K, Izzo, Self's been good, Cal with the slew of NBA guys, Williams. I mean, if you want to say 'JB isn't as good as K or Izzo' that's justified (at least prior to 12) but I'm not sure it really changes how impressive his overall record has been.

 

[HOFCeluck]

I'm pretty sure I just listed the results and added comments. Not sure where I massaged anything. But he's a hall of fame coach b/c he has his team in position to do something basically every year. that's harder than it looks and I wonder if Pitt might realize this soon. But the coaches that are constantly making deep runs in the tourney are the elite guys -- K, Izzo, Self's been good, Cal with the slew of NBA guys, Williams. I mean, if you want to say 'JB isn't as good as K or Izzo' that's justified (at least prior to 12) but I'm not sure it really changes how impressive his overall record has been.

Didn't mean to come off harsh. But there's a perception that JB coached teams bow out earlier than they should...and rarely make deep runs. I think our results post 2011 SHOULD change that perception.

 

[721Comstock]

Good post. I'm not sure I can quite write the URI or Richmond losses off -- not that I'm suggesting you're doing that. I mean, Richmond had a good program but lost to Duke by 45 the year before beating a loaded Cuse team. So maybe it's not quite as bad a loss but it's still a pretty major upset. URI just pisses me off b/c I can still see tommy penders racing around the court celebrating, which is annoying.

I agree on 06, just didn't want to disingenuously disregard it as technically an upset. But no should have been surprised by that loss. That team was cooked after an incredible BET run (which I was at and am grateful to have witnessed).

Anyway, I just think as a general rule, JB's 'poor tourney record' certainly has been helped by these last two final fours but I'm not sure it was quite as bad as it was made out to be from the 80s through the mid-90s and into the early 2000s.

Definitely not writing them off - just providing what are clearly some extenuating circumstances for those results.
While the Richmond upset was infamous for being the first 15/2 upset, it doesn't even rank in the Top-5 now for worst all-time.
Sparty just easily took over the #1 spot on that list, and will likely hold it forever - until a #1 seed goes down.
(and nobody with half a brain is now claiming that Izzo can't coach in March, because of that result.)

Duke has won 2 NC's since 2010. K is widely considered the best college coach of our time, possibly all-time.
Yet, K lost to Lehigh 15/2 in 2012, and to Mercer 14/3 in 2014.
Occasional tournament upsets - it's an occupational hazard of being a good coach at a good program.
The more of those games you're in, the greater the odds that you'll drop one here and there.

PS - I will freely admit now, that JB was NOT a very good in-game coach back in the '80's, and early 90's.
That (thankfully) is no longer the case.

 

[RandygoCuse]

Ha ha, I love it.

Analytics guys, can't live with'em, pass the beer nuts.

Great classic TV reference. Two points to whomever can name the show. As always, no using the Google

 

[RF2044]

Even without Melo, if the OSU game had been officiated like 99.9% of every other game in the history of college basketball, I think we're in the final four.

Agreed. They [ohio state] shot 42 free throws in a game where they edged us out. Absurd.

Still infuriating, years later.

 

[OttoMets]

I don't agree with that. Onuaku going down was a huge blow to that team. As soon as he was out I felt like we lost our shot at the NC. That was a huge blow.

We had to play dashonte Riley in tourney games instead of a guy who was shooting something crazy like 60-70% from the floor. It was a huge loss, equally as big as losing Melo IMO.

DaShonte: +6 during the run in which we regained the lead with four minutes to play. He wasn't the problem.

I'm telling you, it's burned into my memory like this happened last night. We had a token starter at point guard who was giving us nothing. Joseph was hurt, and that was costly. But we were playing a far inferior team with a lineup that was not at all unusual: Onuaku played 22 minutes per game that season and we played long stretches of very good basketball with Jardine/Rautins/Joseph/Johnson/Jackson. Somehow this is forgotten.

We weren't title favorites without our full lineup. What we were was a talented team playing a big underdog, with the chance to play in the regional final against an underdog opponent (Xavier or Kansas State) who ended up playing two overtimes in the late game after us. We were very much favorites to go to the Final Four.

And how did we go after that?

-By introducing a strange wrinkle into our offense (five days after we obliterated Gonzaga with a finally-healthy Wes Johnson) in which Rick Jackson would work at the high post and Wes would sit on the block, which played into the hands of a very physical defense and put our two players into unfamilar roles.
- By opting not to press a team with shaky ball-handlers, a team that wanted a game in the 50s. In stark contrast to the last eight minutes this Sunday, we let the underdog be comfortable rather than exploiting the talent gap and forcing them to stay with us.
-By going into a stall with a 4 point lead and over 4 minutes on the clock (right after one of our only transition baskets, no less). Just bad math.

It was a bad game and a bad upset. Our players were head-and-shoulders better than theirs, but we didn't take advantage.

 

[OttoMets]

Great classic TV reference. Two points to whomever can name the show. As always, no using the Google

Norm Peterson, love the line.

 

[RandygoCuse]

Norm Peterson, love the line.

You were supposed to name the show, but I'll give you the points anyway.

 

[Orangeman]

Even without Melo, if the OSU game had been officiated like 99.9% of every other game in the history of college basketball, I think we're in the final four.

Do we have any stats guys who can run what 42 free throws represents in terms of a standard deviation, etc? More than a free throw per minute. Incredible

I have this theory that the way the officials would impact the game is not by the end-game total fouls, but by manipulating the narrative of the game to facilitate big runs, etc. For instance, if you look at the play-by-play of the UVA game, and as someone referenced earlier, during their 23-6 run to take control in the 1H, the fouls called were 6-1 against SU. Including the infamous block/charge on G that was his second foul (would have been their AP All-American's second foul, can't have that).

But, for some reason the play-by-play for the OSU game in 2012 doesn't pop up on ESPN.com

Maybe they go away after a couple years but not sure why that would be.

Anyway, all we're asking for is a fair chance.

 

[CorduroyG]

we should have beat butler even without AO, just a terrible coaching job by jb. butler didnt even play that great. i rewatched the 1st half a couple days ago, by far the worst half of basketball that team played all year. mindless turnovers, zero intensity. and despite all that we had complete control up 54-50, but then we go stall ball and a couple more mindless turnovers and they hit a couple lucky 3s and its over. brutal loss.

 

[OttoMets]

we should have beat butler even without AO, just a terrible coaching job by jb. butler didnt even play that great. i rewatched the 1st half a couple days ago, by far the worst half of basketball that team played all year. mindless turnovers, zero intensity. and despite all that we had complete control up 54-50, but then we go stall ball and a couple more mindless turnovers and they hit a couple lucky 3s and its over. brutal loss.

And we pulled Riley after taking the lead, only to have Rick Jackson give up the go-ahead layup while playing matador defense with 4 fouls.

That game was surreal. Butler played badly; we played about the same; they had the 8-0 run abetted by the substitution, the suplex, and the weird hop on the three from the corner.

It's unfortunate that Onuaku's become the story of the game. Top to bottom, it was our worst performance of the year. We spotted them a 12-1 lead, still managed to have the game in hand with 4:30 to go, and lost. Without Onuaku, we could have played three games of C+ basketball and still gotten 40 minutes with Duke on Monday night. Instead we showed up with our D game/strategy and didn't get the chance.

 

[AZOrange]

And we pulled Riley after taking the lead, only to have Rick Jackson give up the go-ahead layup while playing matador defense with 4 fouls. That game was surreal. Butler played badly; we played about the same; they had the 8-0 run abetted by the substitution, the suplex, and the weird hop on the three from the corner. It's unfortunate that Onuaku's become the story of the game. Top to bottom, it was our worst performance of the year. We spotted them a 12-1 lead, still managed to have the game in hand with 4:30 to go, and lost. Without Onuaku, we could have played three games of C+ basketball and still gotten 40 minutes with Duke on Monday night. Instead we showed up with our D game/strategy and didn't get the chance.

It was awful. Other than 1987 my biggest disappointment as a fan. OSU third

 

[orange2win]

I've seen this type of post and comment many times over the years. But it is not reality. Check out the list of McDonald's AA's over the years and you'll see we're not remotely close to the blue bloods. If JB had the type of talent of a Duke, North Carolina or Kentucky, he would have been in the FF4 on other occasions and won more than one championship. It takes skill and luck to win a championship and JB has done a hell of a job in his career even though he could have been luckier and did not have the same talent level of the big boys.

I'm glad you brought this point up, because you and so many other posters have not done your research. Here are the facts. SU has captured more McAA talent than any team that ever played in the Big East. You read that right. That's ANY Big East team - ever. Yet, several of those Big East teams have won the NCAA crown more times than us. Since we won it in 2003, UConn has already won the tournament three times.

In the current ACC, only Duke and UNC have captured more McDAA players than we have. Some ACC teams have never signed one. Same elsewhere. Mighty Gonzaga only their first one this year.

SU is tied for 7th place nationally in McDAA captures. Should be good enough for more than one tournament win in 32 tries don't you think?

 

[thebigeast44]

I know it's not fun but I'm in this boat. I can't really speak to anything before '87, but if you take it since that season, it's really not a bad resume at all.

87 -- lose on a last second shot in the title game. Painful but incredible season.
88 -- Loss to Rhode Island. Bad loss

Sherman Douglas was sick with the flu during the Rhode Island game - not remotely himself and their good guards took advantage.

 

[thebigeast44]

I'm glad you brought this point up, because you and so many other posters have not done your research. Here are the facts. SU has captured more McAA talent than any team that ever played in the Big East. You read that right. That's ANY Big East team - ever. Yet, several of those Big East teams have won the NCAA crown more times than us. Since we won it in 2003, UConn has already won the tournament three times.

In the current ACC, only Duke and UNC have captured more McDAA players than we have. Some ACC teams have never signed one. Same elsewhere. Mighty Gonzaga only their first one this year.

SU is tied for 7th place nationally in McDAA captures. Should be good enough for more than one tournament win in 32 tries don't you think?

No - I have done my research. Several Big East teams have won the NCAA crown more than once during the JB Era- other than UCONN, what other teams are you referring to? I suppose you could throw in Louisville although they have been in mutiple conferences over the years. As I said above, luck along with timing plays a role in winning championships - UCONN I would argue has been luckier than Syracuse. And the point I was making above about the number of McDonald's AA's is the wide disparity that exists between the blue bloods - Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky and Kansas and Syracuse.

 

[NYCSUGrad]

I know it's not fun but I'm in this boat. I can't really speak to anything before '87, but if you take it since that season, it's really not a bad resume at all.

87 -- lose on a last second shot in the title game. Painful but incredible season.
88 -- Loss to Rhode Island. Bad loss
89 -- Loss to Illinois in the Elite 8. Obviously winnable as it was a close game but that was a really good team. No shame in that loss.
90 -- Loss to Minny in the sweet 16. Not a good loss but a sweet 16 ain't terrible.
91 -- Richmond. What can you say. Terrible.
92 -- Loss to Umass, 2nd rd. Cuse a 6, Umass a 3. Not a bad loss.
94 -- Tough loss to a good Mizzou team in the Sweet 16. Fine season.
95 -- About as close as you get to pulling a big upset but it doesn't work out vs. Arkansas.
96 -- title game loss to UK
98 -- Loss to Duke in sweet 16. 1 vs. 5 -- not surprising.
99 -- L to Oklahoma State in Rd. 1. 8/9 game -- not surprising.
00 -- hammered by dominant eventual champion MSU team in sweet 16.
01 -- Second round beatdown by Kansas. Not that surprising, though it was ugly.
03 -- Title
04 -- sweet 16. crappy loss to Alabama but it was a 5/8 game so no major upset and it's still a sweet 16
05 -- Vermont. Brutal.
06 -- 5/12 upset vs. A&M. Bad loss but crazy run through BET to win it and that team may have been entirely spent by that point.
09 -- Loss to OU in the sweet 16. OU plays lights out and runs away with it. Loss to a 2-seed is not shocking.
10 -- L to Butler in Sweet 16. Hurts but Onuaku out and Brad Stevens is a freaking good coach. Not terrible, IMO.
11 -- Loss to 11-seed Marquette. Sucks, but not shocking. Not an ideal matchup.
12 -- OSU loss in elite 8
13 -- Final Four
14 -- L to Dayton. Bad loss but they end up in the elite 8 and have averaged more than 25.5 wins the past three seasons. Hardly shocking.

So JB's resume looks like this:

Terrible losses
88 -- Rhode Island
91 -- Richmond
05 -- Vermont

Not great losses (not inexcusable but you'd like to have back)
90 -- Minny
11 -- Marquette
14 -- Dayton

Losses with asterisks
06 -- A&M (BET title probably took a bunch out of that team)
10 -- Butler (Onuaku)
12 -- OSU (Melo)

Meh
92 -- Umass
99 -- Oklahoma State
01 -- Kansas

Pretty solid runs
89 -- Illinois
94 -- Mizzou
95 -- Nearly take down Arkansas (national runners up)
98 -- Duke loss
00 -- MSU loss
04 -- Alabama (not sure how to rank this one. It sucks but it's not terribly shocking and it's a sweet 16)
09 -- OU sweet 16. Ugly loss, but not crazy.

Final Fours/Titles
87 -- near miss
96 -- out of nowhere
03 -- title
13 -- Sort of out of nowhere
16 -- insane.

So I don't know. I look at a lot of JB's criticism really stemming from the Richmond and Rhode Island losses as well as the fact that his team didn't quite pull too many upsets like we've seen the past few years with knocking off a 1 in IU and then a 1 in UVA this season. Knocking off Kansas in 96 was pretty impressive as well.

But the bottom line is I'd say he's had 14 seasons with a really good run or at least a solid run with a loss to a really good team. He's had three tournaments that weren't exciting but weren't surprisingly bad in any way either (92/99/01).

That leaves 6 NCAA tournaments that have left a distinct impression of underachievement (in terms of pre-tournament expectations). Hard to come up with an excuse for Rhode Island, Richmond or UVM. So those are three stinkers. But I don't know about others here, I wasn't surprised by Dayton in 14 or Marquette (in the least) in 11. Not great losses but I struggle to call them atrocious losses. i think they're losses that happen from time to time in this tournament. Don't really remember Minny but obviously a disappointing loss.

I don't know. I really think JB's overall record is better than people think, at least if you believe that he's lost to some really good teams along the way. I can't help but feel like Richmond and Rhode Island have colored people's perceptions for a long time.

Very good analysis. I don't know if others have said it but Marquette was in our league for several seasons by then so knew the zone. That's a decided advantage in the tournament.

 

[Nicknack]

I'm glad you brought this point up, because you and so many other posters have not done your research. Here are the facts. SU has captured more McAA talent than any team that ever played in the Big East. You read that right. That's ANY Big East team - ever. Yet, several of those Big East teams have won the NCAA crown more times than us. Since we won it in 2003, UConn has already won the tournament three times.

In the current ACC, only Duke and UNC have captured more McDAA players than we have. Some ACC teams have never signed one. Same elsewhere. Mighty Gonzaga only their first one this year.

SU is tied for 7th place nationally in McDAA captures. Should be good enough for more than one tournament win in 32 tries don't you think?

Very interesting. I would not have pegged us for being 7th nationally in McDAA captures. It's funny though because on one hand, that's very good as it speaks to our recruiting and solid program over the years. On the other hand, it helps to support the point you are making regarding only having one Nat Championship to show for it. In an effort to remain positive and upbeat (especially looking towards a final four this weekend), I'll go with the latter.

 

[NKR1978]

On the other hand, it helps to support the point you are making regarding only having one Nat Championship to show for it. In an effort to remain positive and upbeat (especially looking towards a final four this weekend), I'll go with the latter.

Meh. Not sure it does. Aside from the ridiculously incorrect notion that "several Big East teams have more national championships than we do in the BE era" the only teams with multiple championships since 1977 are MSU, Louisville, UNC, Duke, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky and Kansas. It's a pretty high standard to hold yourself to.

 

[kirbivore]

Good post. I'm not sure I can quite write the URI or Richmond losses off -- not that I'm suggesting you're doing that. I mean, Richmond had a good program but lost to Duke by 45 the year before beating a loaded Cuse team. So maybe it's not quite as bad a loss but it's still a pretty major upset. URI just pisses me off b/c I can still see tommy penders racing around the court celebrating, which is annoying.

I agree on 06, just didn't want to disingenuously disregard it as technically an upset. But no should have been surprised by that loss. That team was cooked after an incredible BET run (which I was at and am grateful to have witnessed).

Anyway, I just think as a general rule, JB's 'poor tourney record' certainly has been helped by these last two final fours but I'm not sure it was quite as bad as it was made out to be from the 80s through the mid-90s and into the early 2000s.

The out of whack seeding by the committee in 2006 for both teams is reflected in TAMU being a 1 pt. vegas favorite at tip time.

 

[HOFCeluck]

This idea that we somehow are entitled to more titles is strange to me.