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[QUOTE="Knicks411, post: 868694, member: 767"]
I kind of tried to estimate this using Pomeroy.

Let's use Lunardi's projections, I'll make us 99.99% to win the first round game.  
Second round would be Gtown or Michigan, Michigan would be favored, they are 20th in Pomeroy.  UNC is a good proxy, they're 19th, we are 77% to beat them at the dome.  @Buffalo is pretty close to the dome, let's call it 75% instead of 77%.  
The best team they could play in the Sweet 16 would be Iowa State, who is 16, or Memphis, who is 18.  Duke is a really good proxy for them at 15; we're 73% to beat Duke.  MSG isn't the dome, but there is also a non zero chance we play someone other than Iowa State or Memphis, so lets call it about 73%.
The 2 seed is Michigan State.  They are 10th, a dead ringer for Pitt at 11.  We're 72% to beat Pitt at home.  Once again, MSG isn't the dome, but there is a non zero chance we play someone worse than MSU (ha, well maybe not, the 3 seed is Nova, who is actually rated higher than MSU in Pomeroy, but not by much), so let's keep it at 72%.
So that is about 39%, just about dead on with the odds in the OP.  Still think the 16% chance of winning it all is too high though.
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