Joe Lunardi has Cuse as the favorite to win it all | Syracusefan.com

Joe Lunardi has Cuse as the favorite to win it all

jordoo

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Well you know we beat Nova and he's a St Joes guy so for this week he likes us. :noidea:

Always like anyone picking us to win it all though, get the news out to recruits SU baby.
 

Knicks411

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I wonder how much, if any, that has to do with favorable placement, especially at MSG.
 

jordoo

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I wonder how much, if any, that has to do with favorable placement, especially at MSG.

I would guess that he's projecting us going through MSG which has to increase our chances at winning that region. If we are in MSG then all the puntants will be picking us for the FF because it means we held serve all season long and will have as close to a home court feel as you can get in the S16 and E8 games.
 

djmlaw

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Knicks411

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I would guess that he's projecting us going through MSG which has to increase our chances at winning that region. If we are in MSG then all the puntants will be picking us for the FF because it means we held serve all season long and will have as close to a home court feel as you can get in the S16 and E8 games.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. I wonder if playing in MSG takes you from say 15% to 17%, or something like that.
I have to say, 17% seems really high for us. Basically one in six. Say we get a 1 seed, call the first round game 100% in our favor. Even accepting that, if we were 70% favorites in each of the next 5 games (seems unlikely), that gets you to right around 17%. Even the FF odds and the title odds seem a bit off; that's basically saying we have a 45% chance of winning it all if we make the FF, which seems on the high side.
 

jordoo

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Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. I wonder if playing in MSG takes you from say 15% to 17%, or something like that.
I have to say, 17% seems really high for us. Basically one in six. Say we get a 1 seed, call the first round game 100% in our favor. Even accepting that, if we were 70% favorites in each of the next 5 games (seems unlikely), that gets you to right around 17%. Even the FF odds and the title odds seem a bit off; that's basically saying we have a 45% chance of winning it all if we make the FF, which seems on the high side.

Yep it can't just be straight mathematics after ranking the teams because otherwise the odds would always be lower that that I would think.
 

strumpfasaurus

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Another thing to take into account is I think like the last seven years there has been a repeat final four appearance. Michigan isn't going back I doubt Wichita State goes back, and I can't see Louisville making three in a row.
 

Knicks411

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Nothing against us, but if I could short us winning it all at 6 to 1 I would definitely do so.
 

Knicks411

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I kind of tried to estimate this using Pomeroy.

Let's use Lunardi's projections, I'll make us 99.99% to win the first round game.
Second round would be Gtown or Michigan, Michigan would be favored, they are 20th in Pomeroy. UNC is a good proxy, they're 19th, we are 77% to beat them at the dome. @Buffalo is pretty close to the dome, let's call it 75% instead of 77%.
The best team they could play in the Sweet 16 would be Iowa State, who is 16, or Memphis, who is 18. Duke is a really good proxy for them at 15; we're 73% to beat Duke. MSG isn't the dome, but there is also a non zero chance we play someone other than Iowa State or Memphis, so lets call it about 73%.
The 2 seed is Michigan State. They are 10th, a dead ringer for Pitt at 11. We're 72% to beat Pitt at home. Once again, MSG isn't the dome, but there is a non zero chance we play someone worse than MSU (ha, well maybe not, the 3 seed is Nova, who is actually rated higher than MSU in Pomeroy, but not by much), so let's keep it at 72%.
So that is about 39%, just about dead on with the odds in the OP. Still think the 16% chance of winning it all is too high though.
 

Fly Rodder

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F Lunardi anyway. I am so jealous of the scam that guy runs.
Same here. College basketball is made up of single games. There's no 3-, 5-, 7- games series, so upsets happen all the time. It amazes me that people can make a living at predicting college basketball and how teams are seeded in a tournament.

Last March, I was listening to Evan and Phillips in the morning on XM as they were talking about which teams had potential to win the tournament. Steve Phillips has had his issues (banging interns and trading for Mo Vaughn among them), but he was spot on when asked:

"Team X? Oh, yeah, I like them, they're real long and athletic. If they hit their threes, they can be real dangerous. Also, Team Y. They're long and athletic and if they hit their threes, they could be real dangerous."

"You just said the same thing."

"Also team Z. *chuckles* they're real long and athletic and if they hit their threes ... *laughter* C'mon. This isn't hard."
 

Knicks411

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That's true, but Lunradi isn't projecting the single games, he's just projecting who is going to be seeded where.
 

Cusefannotindc

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I kind of tried to estimate this using Pomeroy.

Let's use Lunardi's projections, I'll make us 99.99% to win the first round game.
Second round would be Gtown or Michigan, Michigan would be favored, they are 20th in Pomeroy. UNC is a good proxy, they're 19th, we are 77% to beat them at the dome. @Buffalo is pretty close to the dome, let's call it 75% instead of 77%.
The best team they could play in the Sweet 16 would be Iowa State, who is 16, or Memphis, who is 18. Duke is a really good proxy for them at 15; we're 73% to beat Duke. MSG isn't the dome, but there is also a non zero chance we play someone other than Iowa State or Memphis, so lets call it about 73%.
The 2 seed is Michigan State. They are 10th, a dead ringer for Pitt at 11. We're 72% to beat Pitt at home. Once again, MSG isn't the dome, but there is a non zero chance we play someone worse than MSU (ha, well maybe not, the 3 seed is Nova, who is actually rated higher than MSU in Pomeroy, but not by much), so let's keep it at 72%.
So that is about 39%, just about dead on with the odds in the OP. Still think the 16% chance of winning it all is too high though.

To calculate Chance of winning, use the Log5 formula. Team X win % = (X Pyth * (1- Y Pyth))/((X Pyth * (1- Y Pyth))+((1-X Pyth) * Y Pyth))
 

Cusefannotindc

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I kind of tried to estimate this using Pomeroy.

Let's use Lunardi's projections, I'll make us 99.99% to win the first round game.
Second round would be Gtown or Michigan, Michigan would be favored, they are 20th in Pomeroy. UNC is a good proxy, they're 19th, we are 77% to beat them at the dome. @Buffalo is pretty close to the dome, let's call it 75% instead of 77%.
The best team they could play in the Sweet 16 would be Iowa State, who is 16, or Memphis, who is 18. Duke is a really good proxy for them at 15; we're 73% to beat Duke. MSG isn't the dome, but there is also a non zero chance we play someone other than Iowa State or Memphis, so lets call it about 73%.
The 2 seed is Michigan State. They are 10th, a dead ringer for Pitt at 11. We're 72% to beat Pitt at home. Once again, MSG isn't the dome, but there is a non zero chance we play someone worse than MSU (ha, well maybe not, the 3 seed is Nova, who is actually rated higher than MSU in Pomeroy, but not by much), so let's keep it at 72%.
So that is about 39%, just about dead on with the odds in the OP. Still think the 16% chance of winning it all is too high though.

Using Pomeroy's numbers and no Home Court advantage, I come up with SU at 25% to win the Region.
 

Knicks411

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Using Pomeroy's numbers and no Home Court advantage, I come up with SU at 25% to win the Region.

Hmm, so the home court is basically worth 10%? Seems high. What did you have for the individual games win%?
 

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