KenPom preseason rankings are out

[moqui]

I thought that maybe, just maybe, I could gently point out the fundamental flakiness of these pre-season wild-ass guesses so that people wouldn't spiral upwards into higher levels of euphoria based on them.

Most blew right by the data and moved to comparing conferences on the basis of this nonsense. Others complained about my raining on the parade.

you don't understand pomeroy

 

[Townie72]

Well if you expect to hit exact on every point with 350 plus data points I don’t know what to tell you. I see the results and see pretty good data if he’s only missing by 5-10 spots.

But he didn't miss by 5-10 spots.

He got 4 of the ten very close including getting the #1 team exactly right

Three teams he missed by between 10 and 20 places.

Three of the teams he ranked in the Top 10 didn’t even finish in the Top 25

And what "data" are we talking about here?

He is projecting player improvement? Is he projecting the likely contributions of incoming freshman or transfers?

Does any of this take into count changes in the strength of competitors even inside the same conference?

If it does, it's all built on a house of cards of assumption stacked upon assumption.

If it doesn't it's incomplete.

It's entertaining nonsense that anyone who actually reads it ought to take with a boulder-sized grain of salt.

Actually, between this faux-statistical approach and gut feel of knowledgeable fans, I'll take the gut-feel every time.

 

[Townie72]

you don't understand pomeroy

Why bother?

I understand results though.

As my statistician hero Deming once said, "When the theory and the data are at odds, believe the data."

At best its an organized way of projecting the unmeasureable and unprojectible".

 

[HOFCeluck]

Is there anyone more thirsty than Townie to show that he’s the smartest person in the room?

 

[djcon57]

Don't buy those Great Eight tickets quite yet.

How did Ken Pom’s 2017-18 Pre-season ranking of Top Ten do versus the Final Coaches Poll?

He got 4 of the ten very close including getting the #1 team exactly right

Three teams he missed by between 10 and 20 places.

Three of the teams he ranked in the Top 10 didn’t even finish in the Top 25

10. West Virginia (Post Season #13) – Minus 3

9. North Carolina (Post Season #14) – Minus 4

8. Louisville (Post Season Not Ranked in Top 25) – Whiffed Completely

7. Florida (Post Season Not Ranked in Top 25) – Whiffed Completely

6. Virginia (Post Season #5) – Plus 1

5. Wichita State (Post Season #25)- Minus 20

4. Gonzaga (Post Season #10) – Minus 10

3. Kentucky (post Season #17) – Minus 14

2. Arizona (Post Season Not Ranked in Top 25) – Whiffed Completely

1. Villanova (Post season #1) – Dead on Correct

Shouldn’t Gonzaga be minus 6 which would then give him 5 out of 10 very close?

 

[moqui]

Why bother?

I understand results though.

As my statistician hero Deming once said, "When the theory and the data are at odds, believe the data."

At best its an organized way of projecting the unmeasureable and unprojectible".

pomeroy is an estimation of relative strengths at a moment in time, not a prediction of final status.
you clearly do not understand that

 

[Townie72]

pomeroy is an estimation of relative strengths at a moment in time, not a prediction of final status.
you clearly do not understand that

Of what earthly use is that?

So somehow "strength" is not connected to record and probable finish? That would be a perverse world.

Besides, it's obviously a model that doesn't include "unknowables" or that, worse yet, guesses at them.

 

[Townie72]

Shouldn’t Gonzaga be minus 6 which would then give him 5 out of 10 very close?

Yes, you are right.

But that 50% would give him the same accuracy as a coin toss. And there's the three he completely missed on.

The point is still the same one. This "wild-ass" guess based on some statistics is highly unreliable and no one should take it seriously.

Or as is pointed out above what it measures (strength) is somehow mysteriously unconnected to how a team does during the upcoming season.

 

[HOFCeluck]

Wow real groundbreaking stuff here.

 

[DonLightfoot]

My goodness, some of you guys are way too analytical for me. More power to you for your research.

For me, I review assessments from various sources and combine those with my thoughts to come to my own estimate.

It is nice to be recognized, but like I mentioned in a previous post here, it means didley squat right now. However, it makes for good reading and debate.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

It’s townie season once again!

 

[jordoo]

Wait! So kenpom is not actually prophesying the final results of the season?

Sweet we can still win the NC! For a minute there I thought we lost in the E8.

 

[tbouks02]

Last year we were 135th in Offensive Efficiency per KenPom and made the Sweet Sixteen. KenPom projects us as a top 17 Offensive team this year, which I honestly don't foresee considering we basically have the same team coming back. BUT if he's right, and we have a top 20 Offensive team this year we are destined for special things.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Last year we were 135th in Offensive Efficiency per KenPom and made the Sweet Sixteen. KenPom projects us as a top 17 Offensive team this year, which I honestly don't foresee considering we basically have the same team coming back. BUT if he's right, and we have a top 20 Offensive team this year we are destined for special things.

A. Guys get better.
B. Hughes, Boeheim, and Carey played last year?

 

[longtimefan]

A. Guys get better.
B. Hughes, Boeheim, and Carey played last year?

Plus, pretty much every other team in the country lost some offensive firepower.

 

[tbouks02]

I agree we will be better. But going from 135 to 17 is a huge jump. Considering 80 % of the minutes will be by the same players who played last year. I would be happy with a top 50 offensive team this year from what I saw last year. I didn't see anything during the course of last season that shows we will be a good offensive team this year. Even though we made a good run in the tourney we were still dreadful offensively. Our defense picked up but we might have gotten worse offensively as the year went on. But I hope I'm wrong.

 

[malpearl31]

Last year we were 135th in Offensive Efficiency per KenPom and made the Sweet Sixteen. KenPom projects us as a top 17 Offensive team this year, which I honestly don't foresee considering we basically have the same team coming back. BUT if he's right, and we have a top 20 Offensive team this year we are destined for special things.

SU improved from 117th in Offensive Efficiency in 2014-15 (Rak's senior year) to 50th in 2015-16 (Malachi and Lydon's freshman year) - so there's some precedent for year-to-year improvement. That 2014-15 team ranked 321st nationally in 3-point shooting - and last year's team was 324th. To me, the key to this year's offense will come down to whether or not our 3-point shooting improves. Hopefully, some combination of Buddy/Braswell, fresh legs for Tyus and Frank (due to the presence of Jalen Carey) and improvement from Oshae/Tyus/Frank does the trick.