OrangeXtreme
The Mayor of Dewitt
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- Aug 15, 2011
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This is what is wrong with pre-season rankings, and analytics too. Only really happens in college sports, as pro sports and their postseasons are based entirely on results.
These rankings set up biases that are a challenge for humans to overcome. And it is humans that choose the 12-team CFB playoff and the NCAA Tournament.
No one has played. All teams should be equal on Oct. 12.
Syracuse is equal to Kansas, as is UTEP or Marist to Syracuse/Kansas. You get the gist.
BTW, these pre-season analytics are skewed to favor the B10 and SEC, so know that going in.
Unfortunately, it's a mathematical necessity. Pro sports have a much larger sample size of games, and the talent difference between the best pro team in each league and the worst team is fairly small. So evaluating by pure standings is logical. College is much different. There are way more teams and way fewer games, and the disparity in talent and strength of schedule with 350+ teams is enormous. So a bit of subjectivity is necessary.This is what is wrong with pre-season rankings, and analytics too. Only really happens in college sports, as pro sports and their postseasons are based entirely on results.
These rankings set up biases that are a challenge for humans to overcome. And it is humans that choose the 12-team CFB playoff and the NCAA Tournament.
Fair point to process. But let’s allow the subjectivity of results set the tone. Not roster retention. Not returning QB. Not recruiting rankings. Not third down conversion percentage last season.Unfortunately, it's a mathematical necessity. Pro sports have a much larger sample size of games, and the talent difference between the best pro team in each league and the worst team is fairly small. So evaluating by pure standings is logical. College is much different. There are way more teams and way fewer games, and the disparity in talent and strength of schedule with 350+ teams is enormous. So a bit of subjectivity is necessary.
The analytics like KenPom and Evan Miya like is less going into this season, and I assume that’s because of Autry’s track record and poor record last year—even though it’s almost a wholesale turnover—because coaching and recent program track record gets baked into these preseason analytics. The CBB experts seem to like us more. The Athletic has us finishing 6th in the ACC, and they acknowledge that might be low based on the excellent off-season talent acquisition but they are a bit guarded only because Red still has to prove himself as a head coach.10th in the ACC
I haven't read it yet but someone told me that person who wrote the analysis in The Athletic about us said something like he might be going out on a limb rating us that high.The analytics like KenPom and Evan Miya like is less going into this season, and I assume that’s because of Autry’s track record and poor record last year—even though it’s almost a wholesale turnover—because coaching and recent program track record gets baked into these preseason analytics. The CBB experts seem to like us more. The Athletic has us finishing 6th in the ACC, and they acknowledge that might be low based on the excellent off-season talent acquisition but they are a bit guarded only because Red still has to prove himself as a head coach.