Kicking a fg down 16 with under 10 left

[money3189]

I believe that ND had the worst percentage on third and long in the country. Might have a lot to do with Freeman’s decision.

4th and 9 vs the top redzone defense in the country. Im not saying it was the right decision. Just that I understand what he was thinking.

 

[upperdeck]

Did anyone think they would make a FD?

If you told me SU had the ball I go for it.

Turned out had it gone in and they make the 3rd down stop they have a shot to win in Reg. with 2 min left.

in hindsight the right call only if they dont make it.

Also factor in bad kicking game.

 

[Newhouser]

I think a lot of Freeman's decisions were based on the fact that he didn't trust his QB in throwing situations.

 

[Millhouse]

Momentum for the D if you hit it. They were a 3rd and long from getting the ball back to tie. Hit the FG your driving for a win.

Would there be momentum for the d if they scored a TD

Soccer players are momentum makers.

 

[sufandu]

true. But do they only have like 6 plays in the play book?

On that first drive I think they only had one that worked. They needed to start doing what they did in the 4th quarter earlier, but ultimately, Ohio State has more talent. And they should, they spent enough money on it.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

On that first drive I think they only had one that worked. They needed to start doing what they did in the 4th quarter earlier, but ultimately, Ohio State has more talent. And they should, they spent enough money on it.

I turned it off after ND's second possession. (To be fair, halftime was my self imposed limit.)
OSU had the size to counter ND, plus they had too much speed. Stark contrast.

 

[djorange1989]

I think a lot of Freeman's decisions were based on the fact that he didn't trust his QB in throwing situations.

Agree. Nor should he

 

[sufandu]

I turned it off after ND's second possession. (To be fair, halftime was my self imposed limit.)
OSU had the size to counter ND, plus they had too much speed. Stark contrast.

Yeah. I thought it might get ugly real quick after halftime. I was surprised ND stayed in it as well as they did. OSU helped them a little.

 

[kirbivore]

Down 21-7 with like 25 seconds left and two timeouts before the end of the half, I'm shocked ND didn't try to get into field goal range. It's just too conservative in a game where you're not getting stops.

Twice this year our opponent did that and it was a huge favor to us. UNLV and Virginia Tech had time and timeouts to work with before the end of regulation, and both times they just took a knee. And we won both. You have to give yourself a chance.

St. Doug took a knee with more time than that going into halftime of that AFC title game.

 

[CU44SE]

They lost 1 yard in 3 plays. Why would you go for 4th and goal from the 9 when you’re still down 16? Kick the field goal and you allow yourself to not have to convert 3 2pt conversions, which is unheard of.

I’m all for analytics, but there is absolutely a human element to football and all sports that analytics can’t account for.

Kickers have to be roughly 98% from 27 yards. That’s supposed to be an automatic 3 points. Looks worse because the kicker absolutely botched the kick. And people are saying with 27 seconds left and Ohio State having all the momentum ND should have pushed the ball downfield and attempted a longer FG? I think they needed to get into the locker room at that point and regroup without Ohio State getting any more points.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

They lost 1 yard in 3 plays. Why would you go for 4th and goal from the 9 when you’re still down 16? Kick the field goal and you allow yourself to not have to convert 3 2pt conversions, which is unheard of.

I’m all for analytics, but there is absolutely a human element to football and all sports that analytics can’t account for.

Kickers have to be roughly 98% from 27 yards. That’s supposed to be an automatic 3 points. Looks worse because the kicker absolutely botched the kick. And people are saying with 27 seconds left and Ohio State having all the momentum ND should have pushed the ball downfield and attempted a longer FG? I think they needed to get into the locker room at that point and regroup without Ohio State getting any more points.

this gets to the point, the probability of a touchdown plus a 2pt conversion was very low, making the field goal from 27 yards was very high. it was more like a 2.5 possession game 2pt conversions only have about a 50% success rate, even if you bump it to 70% that is only 49% to make both. there probably arent solid analytics for the situation because it involves a number of branching probabilities but i think freeman made a very defensible choice and maybe even the mathematically correct one.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Did anyone think they would make a FD?

If you told me SU had the ball I go for it.

Turned out had it gone in and they make the 3rd down stop they have a shot to win in Reg. with 2 min left.

in hindsight the right call only if they dont make it.

Also factor in bad kicking game.

I disagree. Two touchdowns wins, if you kick the FG, not just tie, or have to make two 2-pt conversions if you miss.