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[QUOTE="CIL, post: 795546, member: 22"]
You forced me to watch the damn thing over on my DVR, nice work :).

We completed 10 bubble or jailbreak screens for 62 yards.  The longest went for 15.  That's an average of 6.2 per screen.  Of the 10, only 3 went for less than 3 yards.  Only 2 went for a first down.  These are plays that are designed to get 4-5 yards if the defender is off the ball.

Advanced FB stats show that a team needs to gain 4.5 on first in order for the play to be successful.  Getting it to 3rd and 2.5 is also considered a success, as it increases the probability of getting another set of downs.

I have no idea if Shafer embraces advanced metrics for FB or not.  I suspect he does to an extent, because he often talks about holding the other team to less than 4 on first and gaining more than 4 on first.  Against Wake, the bubble screen (of which we were 10 for 11 passing, one was batted down I believe) gave use the best chance of increasing that first down probability as we averaged 5.5 per attempt, 6.2 per completion.

Throwing the ball downfield is nice in theory, but if you only complete 10% of the attempts, it doesn't help as much as one would think.
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