Laxpower Tournament Selection Probabilities

[Whitey23]

http://www.laxpower.com/common/ncaa_selection_chances.php

For Men's Division I, Larry Feldman has used ratings percentage index (RPI), quality wins (QW), and strength of schedule (SOS) data from past years to model the probabilities that teams will make the tournament based on their standing on those indices.

 

[SU2NASA]

http://www.laxpower.com/common/ncaa_selection_chances.php

For Men's Division I, Larry Feldman has used ratings percentage index (RPI), quality wins (QW), and strength of schedule (SOS) data from past years to model the probabilities that teams will make the tournament based on their standing on those indices.

View attachment 62422

How do you have 20 teams with a greater than 50% likelihood for an 18-team tournament?

 

[Alsacs]

There 20 teams because this formula adds up the AQ percentage with At-large percentage. Thus teams like Penn State/Rutgers/Harvard move up.

 

[longtimefan]

http://www.laxpower.com/common/ncaa_selection_chances.php

For Men's Division I, Larry Feldman has used ratings percentage index (RPI), quality wins (QW), and strength of schedule (SOS) data from past years to model the probabilities that teams will make the tournament based on their standing on those indices.

View attachment 62422

This result would have SU bracketed to play Loyola-UMd-ND on the way to a title. That would be fun.

 

[Whitey23]

 

[IHeartSUFball]

Is the brown site on Saturday? If we won first round game and were in that pod

 

[orange79]

Is the brown site on Saturday? If we won first round game and were in that pod

Yes - May 21

 

[IHeartSUFball]

Yes - May 21

I truly hope we get that site

 

[Moontan]

I truly hope we get that site

Could be a true road game at Brown...
Let's worry about Colgate and the first round game first.

 

[wvlax]

 

[longtimefan]

View attachment 62813

So, if Harvard wins tomorrow, Hopkins may be out.

 

[Whitey23]

So, if Harvard wins tomorrow, Hopkins may be out.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Fight Fiercely Harvard.

 

[GoSU96]

That shows if Harvard wins Duke, UNC, Navy, and Hopkins are fighting for three spots. Between UNC and Hopkins UNC has a win over JHU and a recent win over ND.

 

[GoSU96]

Somebody needs to explain the strenght of schedule UMd is 1st, SU is 2oth. Common opponents, ND, Albany, UNC, Hopkins. They played Navy, SU played Army. Other than that its Big 10 vs ACC and UMd played Yale.

Who really thinks the Big 10 is better or that Yale is the difference between 1st and 20th.

 

[CreaseRat]

Somebody needs to explain the strenght of schedule UMd is 1st, SU is 2oth. Common opponents, ND, Albany, UNC, Hopkins. They played Navy, SU played Army. Other than that its Big 10 vs ACC and UMd played Yale.

Who really thinks the Big 10 is better or that Yale is the difference between 1st and 20th.

I think SU's SOS is 10, not 20

 

[Whitey23]

I think SU's SOS is 10, not 20

It's moving around based on games finishing up.
16 right now

http://www.laxpower.com/update16/binmen/sos01.php

 

[cuseguy]

RPI is pretty meaningless. Unfortunately, it's a big factor.

 

[cuseguy]

Harvard out.

Imagine we get Rutgers or Navy??

Hopkins??