Less than 25% chance we dance

[AlaskaSU]

We need to win the next two games. The ESPN computer model gives us a 49.3% chance to win the first game and 47.6% chance to win the second. Thus, we have, according to the model, a 23.5% chance of winning both games and making the cut, assuming that GMac is not walking through that door.

 

[bevosu]

I'm not optimistic. I wasn't optimistic before the season started, but they've got a better W-L record than I had expected.

I've been surprised on the upside.

NCAA bid ...gravy.

 

[rrlbees]

We need to win the next two games. The ESPN computer model gives us a 49.3% chance to win the first game and 47.6% chance to win the second. Thus, we have, according to the model, a 23.5% chance of winning both games and making the cut, assuming that GMac is not walking through that door.

After the duke loss there was a graphic showing us with a 28% chance. Probably because they considered the ACCT also.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

I guess there's only one thing left to do...

 

[EastCoast2]

I guess there's only one thing left to do...

 

[jdubs30]

It's not as black and white as "less than 25%".

We could win our next 3 games and not make it; or could go 1-2 in our next 3 and make it.

It also depends on what teams above us and below us do. It depends on bid stealers. It depends on what the committee values this year (it seems to change every year, and now we have the Quadrant system). Do they value SOS, RPI and OOC? Good for us. Do they value Q1 wins heavily? Bad for us. Do they value road wins? Solid for us. It really all depends.

I'm with you, we have to AT WORST go 1-1 and 1 win ACCT game to stay right at the cut line (a Pittsburgh loss would be a killer, even if we go 2-0 to finish the ACC season).

I'm not sure you can put a percentage on it though. Too many variables.

 

[20Plus]

It's not as black and white as "less than 25%".

We could win our next 3 games and not make it; or could go 1-2 in our next 3 and make it.

It also depends on what teams above us and below us do. It depends on bid stealers. It depends on what the committee values this year (it seems to change every year, and now we have the Quadrant system). Do they value SOS, RPI and OOC? Good for us. Do they value Q1 wins heavily? Bad for us. Do they value road wins? Solid for us. It really all depends.

I'm with you, we have to AT WORST go 1-1 and 1 win ACCT game to stay right at the cut line (a Pittsburgh loss would be a killer, even if we go 2-0 to finish the ACC season).

I'm not sure you can put a percentage on it though. Too many variables.

This is the only post in this thread that I can relate to discussing any of this other nonsense is garbage

 

[CousCuse]

I looking for a bounce back game Wednesday and a big dome crowd senior day Saturday.

 

[Alsacs]

Team has overachieved and coaching staff has done well this year.

This is all gravy hopefully we can make it but no matter what this season has been fine overall.

 

[AlaskaSU]

In non-statistical terms. Each of the next two games are toss-ups. Thus, the chance of winning both is 25%. That's life.

Pre-season general sentiment was that we would make a winning season by the skin of our teeth. Being thinner than WD-40, we were one injury away from disaster.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Team has overachieved and coaching staff has done well this year.

This is all gravy hopefully we can make it but no matter what this season has been fine overall.

you must really have a low opinion of the true talent level of these guys

 

[Alsacs]

you must really have a low opinion of the true talent level of these guys

We have 3 players on the roster total who can score.
That means we have little margin for error. A winning season is good enough.

 

[elimunelson]

i am not optimistic about Wednesday. It's a 9pm game so i expect it to be somewhat louder than normal at the Conte Forum Library. BC is not a bad team. If we win on Wed, I feel like it catapults us into the NCAAs. It's an elimination game for sure.

 

[Newhouser]

I think we need to win 4 in a row. I thought 500 in the league would do it but not being versed in quadrants, RPI, etc., I just don't think we are worthy. We have 3 wins against P5 schools that look like they will make the tournament, we played the 3 worst teams in the league twice, ND at home without their 2 best players, and frankly don't have any win that makes you scream "tourney team". Beating BC, Clemson and then an ACC bottom feeder still doesn't change that, and I don't think we can win 4 in a row. Thankfully the bubble is awful so we have a chance but if we don't make it I won't be crying foul. Personally I think the tournament should shrink - too many bad teams are getting bids.

 

[20Plus]

you must really have a low opinion of the true talent level of these guys

Yes STEVE you are correct


I don’t agree with these people who say we are lucky to be over .500

I know we’ve had some injuries but O’Shea is a top 25 talent and everybody knew it all year.

Show me another bubble team with a better third option than him besides what he showed at Duke.

I agree with The fact that this year has had some challenges.

Sidibe injuries and also losing Thompson and Thorpe it has been tough to coach but we don’t play players anyways.

So even though we have three less players in the mix we probably would’ve only played one.

If people had known Howard was going to produce at his level I don’t think people would’ve been talking Nit

 

[teamco]

This is a very thin team. No knock against the guys, but facts are facts. We are very challenged offensively. We have made the best of the resources available. I consider the chances of making it to the dance fairly remote with little expectation of advancing even if we do. Three potential offensive weapons that rarely seem to fire at the same time with no bench to speak of is working with an empty tank. Not being a Debbie Downer, just accidentally broke my rose colored glasses at the beginning of the year and haven't bothered to replace them after early seasonal personnel shakeout. That said, love my Orange and would love to see a "Miracle On Ice" style scenario . . . would also love to hit lotto, just have very low expectations I'm going to.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Yes STEVE you are correct


I don’t agree with these people who say we are lucky to be over .500

I know we’ve had some injuries but O’Shea is a top 25 talent and everybody knew it all year.

Show me another bubble team with a better third option than him besides what he showed at Duke.

I agree with The fact that this year has had some challenges.

Sidibe injuries and also losing Thompson and Thorpe it has been tough to coach but we don’t play players anyways.

So even though we have three less players in the mix we probably would’ve only played one.

If people had known Howard was going to produce at his level I don’t think people would’ve been talking Nit

I don’t know. I see both sides of it. I just don’t think our ‘Big Three’ are that great. Tyus is one dimensional, Oshae is still young but a budding star (he’s almost there), and Frank is Frank. An improved player for sure but there is only so much he can do with his talent level and ability. This isn’t a Jameer Nelson/Delonte West backcourt who can overcome the rest of the roster limitations and smoke teams. Frank dominating the ball and handling the ball so much is just not the answer. If he handles the ball so much next year then we have problems. I think he’s very good at times setting people up but our other players don’t move well without the ball and are raw inside. Drop passes as well. Mediocre to bad teams have players who score and fill the stat sheet. That doesn’t mean they are some great players. I think the scheme doesn’t help us out. We rarely attack the other side of the floor, reverse the ball, make crisp decisions. We’re freaking lousy immediately after timeouts. This team isn’t very fast up and down the court. Team speed overall is subpar. We are getting beat down the floor in first halves and early second halves for dunks and layups now.

The zone and the pace keeps us in many of these games, for awhile at least. Most importantly the effort is generally very good. We don’t shoot, dribble, or pass well. If pre-season I would’ve told you how Oshae and Frank would be averaging what they are and Tyus was mostly steady and good like he is; what would you have predicted as an outlook? Probably a comfortable Tourney team, yes?

 

[Janner]

This is where the old adage "one game at a time" is very applicable. We have to look at what's directly in front of us and make sure we prepare and focus on the task at hand. Looking at how many games we need, or who we might be playing, or what other bubble teams are doing doesn't matter right now, all that matter is beating BC.

 

[Cusefan0307]

you must really have a low opinion of the true talent level of these guys

I said we would finish 10th or 11th before the season and that's with Frank playing a lot better than advertised. We lack outside shooting outside of Howard and Brissett and have no post presence. What did you think these guys were going to do this year?

 

[stlorange]

Guys, I love the cuse as much as anyone but the only dancing we will be doing this year is in the NIT. We are one of the worst offensive teams in the NCAA. Let that sink in. If we weren't one of the better defensive teams in the NCAA we would be looking at single digit wins. Is it possible we could reel off 4-5 in a row? Sure but its more likely that we will lose one of the next two games. BC is a 50-50 game and I'm guessing that we will be slight underdogs versus Clemson. Lets be glad we finished above 500 and move on to next year.

 

[Chris02M]

Guys, I love the cuse as much as anyone but the only dancing we will be doing this year is in the NIT. We are one of the worst offensive teams in the NCAA. Let that sink in. If we weren't one of the better defensive teams in the NCAA we would be looking at single digit wins. Is it possible we could reel off 4-5 in a row? Sure but its more likely that we will lose one of the next two games. BC is a 50-50 game and I'm guessing that we will be slight underdogs versus Clemson. Lets be glad we finished above 500 and move on to next year.

all we need is 3 in a row and lets not get crazy not 5, if we won 5 in a row we would be easily in the tournament as a 7 or 8 seed since that would be at least 2 more Quadrant 1 wins

 

[two3zone]

I said we would finish 10th or 11th before the season and that's with Frank playing a lot better than advertised. We lack outside shooting outside of Howard and Brissett and have no post presence. What did you think these guys were going to do this year?

If you go down the list player by player on the roster, outside of Frank and possibly Brissett and 72 (and both are a maybe), every one of them failed to live up to expectations and I think thats what is upsetting.

Any normal year we're probably closer to the bottom of the ACC but we had a very very favourable schedule and the ACC hasn't been this weak since we've joined.

While we shouldn't complain about where we ended up, being better was a pretty easy other option most seasons.

 

[jncuse]

I think we need to win 4 in a row. I thought 500 in the league would do it but not being versed in quadrants, RPI, etc., I just don't think we are worthy. We have 3 wins against P5 schools that look like they will make the tournament, we played the 3 worst teams in the league twice, ND at home without their 2 best players, and frankly don't have any win that makes you scream "tourney team". Beating BC, Clemson and then an ACC bottom feeder still doesn't change that, and I don't think we can win 4 in a row. Thankfully the bubble is awful so we have a chance but if we don't make it I won't be crying foul. Personally I think the tournament should shrink - too many bad teams are getting bids.

I think we have a decent chance when all plays out if we win 3 of the next 4 (in whatever sequence). At the same time I agree with you, that if it is not enough it's because we played right to the line... and in that case you can't complain what happens good or bad.

 

[newmexicuse]

IMHO, we still control our own destiny. I believe 9 - 9 in conf + one tourney win gets us in. (Win three straight - uphill odds to win all three, but all three should be winnable games and this team does not quit so you never know).

I think 2 - 1 on our next three puts us on the bubble. I think less than that we are out.

That means one more loss in the next three will take it out of our own hands barring a very deep ACC tourney run.

I have said all season and I will say again, if we play ourselves onto the bubble then personally I would have no complaint one way or the other whether we get in or not.

 

[sugrad68]

IMHO, we still control our own destiny. I believe 9 - 9 in conf + one tourney win gets us in. (Win three straight - uphill odds to win all three, but all three should be winnable games and this team does not quit so you never know).

I think 2 - 1 on our next three puts us on the bubble. I think less than that we are out.

That means one more loss in the next three will take it out of our own hands barring a very deep ACC tourney run.

I have said all season and I will say again, if we play ourselves onto the bubble then personally I would have no complaint one way or the other whether we get in or not.

I agree with your first scenario. I do not agree with your second scenario. BC on the road and Clemson at home are solid wins if we win. Winning the first game of the ACCT, assuming we play on the first day, against a team like WF or Pitt, will not be impressive. So if we win 3 in a row, I agree SU dances. Lose to either BC or Clemson and it is doubtful we dance. 8-10 in the league with one of the easier schedules does not cut it. The only way we get in is if the selection committee looks at all of the close losses the team has suffered and takes that into consideration. But I doubt they will.