Line moving

[orangenauburn]

-8.5 to -10 down to -8 in a day?

Is this normal?

I'm expecting a close game. 33-27 Cuse.

Edit. Down to -7 / -7.5 some places now.

 

[Alsacs]

Unless Vandy is really solid this line is insane.

MTSU's offense didn't light up Vandy and Syracuse can throw.
I am expecting a 34-17 type game.

 

[TheCusian]

I bet it's the Shafer knows the personnel weirdness combined with leftover concerns about our secondary

I think our DL eats them alive and Dungey deals with the blitzes quite well and we screen Shaf all day

 

[007]

I bet it's the Shafer knows the personnel weirdness combined with leftover concerns about our secondary

I think our DL eats them alive and Dungey deals with the blitzes quite well and we screen Shaf all day

You could be right. My guess is that the early movement has very little to do with Shafer "knowing" the personnel factor, and more about the defense/Cordy.

 

[Mayhem_OJ]

That QB and WR will be a problem, especially if they get hot. The WR had 1600 rec yards last year. He's short but fast and shifty. I think our CB's will have issues. I read that the O-Line has 3 new starters and that may help big time.

 

[Townie72]

-8.5 to -10 down to -8 in a day?

Is this normal?

I'm expecting a close game. 33-27 Cuse.

Edit. Down to -7 / -7.5 some places now.

You do understand that this movement is being done by Vegas to even up the betting, right?

 

[UnknownOrange]

The line starts what they think will entice betting ... then moves when the money moves.

 

[upperdeck]

all it means is the early money is all on MTSU

 

[Townie72]

The line starts what they think will entice betting ... then moves when the money moves.

I sometimes get the idea that posters on here think that Vegas is predicting the margin of victory. And as they get more information about the teams they adjust their prediction.

What they are actually trying to do is to entice betting and then adjusting the line to get equal betting on each side of the bet. When they achieve that they cannot lose.

They make their money on the "vig".

 

[Tobias Funke]

So basically Shafer is going to blitz the hell out of us and we will beat them deep. Will be nice to be on the other aside of that.

 

[CuseOnly]

That QB and WR will be a problem, especially if they get hot. The WR had 1600 rec yards last year. He's short but fast and shifty. I think our CB's will have issues. I read that the O-Line has 3 new starters and that may help big time.

Don't forget that all our CB's and safeties are small and shifty.

 

[Waltdods]

I sometimes get the idea that posters on here think that Vegas is predicting the margin of victory. And as they get more information about the teams they adjust their prediction.

What they are actually trying to do is to entice betting and then adjusting the line to get equal betting on each side of the bet. When they achieve that they cannot lose.

They make their money on the "vig".

This isn't really right, and there was nothing in the original post or the posts that followed to suggest the writer doesn't understand what lines mean.

The line is moving because betters were betting against Syracuse. That's interesting, and doesn't require anyone to think that some entity called "vegas" is making any sort of determination. The crowd is making some determination, which has some informational value.

 

[Chip]

I sometimes get the idea that posters on here think that Vegas is predicting the margin of victory. And as they get more information about the teams they adjust their prediction.

What they are actually trying to do is to entice betting and then adjusting the line to get equal betting on each side of the bet. When they achieve that they cannot lose.

They make their money on the "vig".

Randolph Duke had an easier time explaining this to Billy Ray Valentine, Capricorn.

 

[CuseOnly]

This isn't really right, and there was nothing in the original post or the posts that followed to suggest the writer doesn't understand what lines mean.

The line is moving because betters were betting against Syracuse. That's interesting, and doesn't require anyone to think that some entity called "vegas" is making any sort of determination. The crowd is making some determination, which has some informational value.

Who do you think moves the line after the money is bet on one team or another?

Vegas is not about risk, it is about the sure thing for them. The line moves when money is bet on one team so they move the line the other way so at the end of the day at game time it (the $$) comes out equal. They then make their 10% vig as Townie72 suggests. No risk for them, they always collect.

This is pretty common knowledge. Really no disputing it.

 

[Cusefan95]

Who do you think moves the line after the money is bet on one team or another?

Vegas is not about risk, it is about the sure thing for them. The line moves when money is bet on one team so they move the line the other way so at the end of the day at game time it (the $$) comes out equal. They then make their 10% vig as Townie72 suggests. No risk for them, they always collect.

This is pretty common knowledge. Really no disputing it.

No kidding, thanks for the brilliant insight.

Since you're clearly a bright guy, please impart your wisdom as to why the early money is heavily on MTSU - since that's fairly obviously the salient issue here.

 

[Killdozer]

Randolph Duke had an easier time explaining this to Billy Ray Valentine, Capricorn.

Hahaha...classic

 

[OttoinGrotto]

That QB and WR will be a problem, especially if they get hot. The WR had 1600 rec yards last year. He's short but fast and shifty. I think our CB's will have issues. I read that the O-Line has 3 new starters and that may help big time.

That QB and WR will not be a problem, especially because they'll be cold. It doesn't matter what the WR did last year. He's short but slow and stuffty. I don't think our CBs will have issues. I read that their o-line is three tackling sleds and that may help big time.

Edit: I didn't write stuffty, but that works.

 

[Townie72]

This isn't really right, and there was nothing in the original post or the posts that followed to suggest the writer doesn't understand what lines mean.

The line is moving because betters were betting against Syracuse. That's interesting, and doesn't require anyone to think that some entity called "vegas" is making any sort of determination. The crowd is making some determination, which has some informational value.

Just so people understand that this is not about which team is going to win and by how much.

It's about getting the same amount of money on both sides.

 

[CuseOnly]

No kidding, thanks for the brilliant insight.

Since you're clearly a bright guy, please impart your wisdom as to why the early money is heavily on MTSU - since that's fairly obviously the salient issue here.

They initially set the line a few points the wrong way based on the money. Hence the correction.

Then you have to consider if the heavy early money on MTSU is from the "sharps" or the betting public based on the initial posted line.

690West would know better than I would which way it went.

 

[ForCuseSake]

Randolph Duke had an easier time explaining this to Billy Ray Valentine, Capricorn.

 

[Mayhem_OJ]

That QB and WR will not be a problem, especially because they'll be cold. It doesn't matter what the WR did last year. He's short but slow and stuffty. I don't think our CBs will have issues. I read that their o-line is three tackling sleds and that may help big time.

Edit: I didn't write stuffty, but that works.

Say again??

 

[Mayhem_OJ]

Don't forget that all our CB's and safeties are small and shifty.

Yeah ok, how's that working out?!?

 

[Scotch]

Just so people understand that this is not about which team is going to win and by how much.

It's about getting the same amount of money on both sides.

Not to dig this thread back up, but this isn't really true, especially in games with two bad teams. It's not like the public has some perception of MTSU football (or even SU for that matter) that Vegas is taking into consideration. This isnt the Yankees or Kentucky basketball. They are trying to put out fair lines based on analytics and what is likely to happen, and they regularly don't adjust lines even if money is flowing in one direction. This line was closer than expected and was falling heading into game time because the oddsmakers and the sharps knew this was going to be a dogfight. The "it's about getting the same money on both sides" post should be retired permanently from the board.