Louisville opens -12 over Cuse...
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690West
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No shock here. Like Willy said, Sagarin told me it was around 11 yesterday.
djorange1989
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Louisville has been struggling on offense and they ended up using their third string QB against Wake due to the top 2 getting hurt. Guess what? They will put 40 on us no matter who starts for them. We are good at helping kids have career days!
Vegas must think we really suck. I mean Louisville vs. Boston College and Wake Forest these past 2 weeks has won 2 games by 4 total points.
I mean UL -12 is nuts. They aren't good. How the hell does Vegas see us 12 points worse. Wow we might have improved from last year but Vegas is saying we aren't even decent. If UL covers the spread this week with how they have played good god.
I mean UL -12 is nuts. They aren't good. How the hell does Vegas see us 12 points worse. Wow we might have improved from last year but Vegas is saying we aren't even decent. If UL covers the spread this week with how they have played good god.
007
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Vegas is not making a statement about SU; there is no emotional investment one way or the other, ever. The spreads are based on cold, hard data and the best analytics in the world. We are 12 point road dogs to L'ville. That is all there is to it.
If YOU think it's "nuts," take the points.
djorange1989
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The way we have played on the road I get it.
Cuseregular
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no doubt. I made my 47-17 prediction right after I saw one of his pregame interviews when he was exclaiming how he couldn't believe he was going to be playing in a stadium he watched in awe so much as a kid (or words to that effect). He was literally wide eyed as he said it (note: not that I could hold any of this against him).
Just knew this was a game I'd be better off cutting the lawn during...
That's correct t syracuse has covered 5 times this year so vegas has bee wrong and they wrong often and no one knows the future my friend NO ONE!!! Vegas said clemson was an 8 point favorite over Miami. They make guess my friends and that's it. I think this line is ridiculous. We will see.
kirbivore
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I agree, but the betting public that is not inside the SU bubble associates Louisville with winning and Syracuse with sucking.
kirbivore
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I don't think Vegas is getting killed on Syracuse being good against the spread. Joe blow public gambler doesn't give a crap about SU football. The money the squares lose every weekend more than makes up for the sharp money that's winning on SU games.
right now the 12pts is coaching
Millhouse
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i had to laugh at the "maguire's better than golson!"
uh no he's not.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/sean-maguire-1/gamelog/
we cannot beat any team willing to throw the ball at all
I had the (un)privlege of fighting that talking point. Bullough was beyond dumb for opening his mouth about wanting to face Golson over Maguire. We made Maguire look like a Heisman candidate and Golson nearly set the NCAA Completion record last year. If you have a pulse and can throw a football at a D-1 level you want to face our defense.
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Millhouse said:
He didn't say mcquire was better. He said he was a better passer. But he mostly lamented about having game planned vs golson and having to stick with that game plan due to youth.
I don't think what he says is as bad as others think. I'm not going to get all up in arms about it.
Millhouse
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i was referring to anyone who thought that, SU fans, FSU fans, announcers, anyone. i wasn't putting words in bullough's mouth.
Willy75
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Vegas is never "wrong". The betting line is designed and adjusted to encourage the maximum amount of betting. The house always wins, it's just a matter of how much (unless of course the game ends up a push).
SUintheVille
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UofL was an 11 pt favorite at WF last week. You see how that turned out (1 pt victory). 12 pt fav over Cuse? It certainly could happen, but their (UofL's) offense is offensive right now.
Their prob on offense is mainly their offensive line. They are not opening holes for the RBs and the QB (Jackson) has limited time to pass. The dual threat part of Jackson is not there lately either due to an inept offensive line again. They have the potential to light it up, but this is more likely to occur next year.
Other than the FSU game, their defense has been very good and the only reason UofL has won last couple of games. Nevertheless, they have difficulty tackling at times in the secondary.
Can Cuse win? Yeah, they can. Will they? Probably not unless Dungey and the offense has a very good game, and Louisville's offense continues to sputter. But 12 seems like a stretch though, but who knows.
Their prob on offense is mainly their offensive line. They are not opening holes for the RBs and the QB (Jackson) has limited time to pass. The dual threat part of Jackson is not there lately either due to an inept offensive line again. They have the potential to light it up, but this is more likely to occur next year.
Other than the FSU game, their defense has been very good and the only reason UofL has won last couple of games. Nevertheless, they have difficulty tackling at times in the secondary.
Can Cuse win? Yeah, they can. Will they? Probably not unless Dungey and the offense has a very good game, and Louisville's offense continues to sputter. But 12 seems like a stretch though, but who knows.
PoppyHart
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This is very simplistic thinking. What if SU won at USF? How much does Vegas win in that scenario.
Townie72
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Vegas isn't making any kind of statement whatsoever.
It's not based on data either. At least not the way you are thinking. Because they aren't the one's betting. They are worried about the bettors and what they think. If they are using data it's data about past performance of the betting pool.
Remember, what they are trying to achieve is an equal number of bettors on each side of the bet. Thet set the line at the level they think will achieve this and then adjust the line later to balance the action. This gives them no downside and make their money on the vig.
007
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Thanks for the lesson, but Vegas does not pull the opening line out of thin air. It IS based on complex data analytics and logarithms to project what the expected point total will be for each team involved in a game. From that number, they adjust the line up or down based on various factors with the goal of "balancing the books." This number is the opening line. Vegas is in fact betting on getting equal money bet on both sides.
The opening line can also be adjusted up or down as money flows in, again with the goal of balancing the books. They make 10% off of the losing bets (vig), but they absolutely have "downside" on any given game. The risk comes from having unbalanced betting in one direction and that side pays out so the vig will not cover the difference.
Much more often than not, Vegas is right on with the opening line and then makes billions off the betting public who think they know better. This includes the people who think that hard data analysis is not involved.