Thanks for the lesson, but Vegas does not pull the opening line out of thin air. It IS based on complex data analytics and logarithms to project what the expected point total will be for each team involved in a game. From that number, they adjust the line up or down based on various factors with the goal of "balancing the books." This number is the opening line. Vegas is in fact betting on getting equal money bet on both sides.
The opening line can also be adjusted up or down as money flows in, again with the goal of balancing the books. They make 10% off of the losing bets (vig), but they absolutely have "downside" on any given game. The risk comes from having unbalanced betting in one direction and that side pays out so the vig will not cover the difference.
Much more often than not, Vegas is right on with the opening line and then makes billions off the betting public who think they know better. This includes the people who think that hard data analysis is not involved.
