Quazzum69
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Unfortunately, he has not been and may not be the “it” factor that the team needed this year as an outside threat, which is especially troubling given Southerland’s uncertain future. Although the “real” season has just begun (and really doesn't start until tomorrow against Looville), he has not impressed at all against lesser competition like he should have.
Thus far, he is averaging 13.6 MPG in 17 games and is shooting 19 of 66 from 3-pt land. That’s a success rate of .288, worse than Southerland, Triche, Fair and Grant. He has attempted third most on the team and is shooting, per minute, more threes than anyone else (Southerland =.205/min, Triche =.132/min, MCW =.104/min and Cooney= .284/min!). Now, I’m not saying he is a drain on the team and should be playing for LeMoyne or anything, but I can’t think of a player who is shooting as many threes and has made less than him. Sure, Trevor could get hot in the next few months, but he will be playing (if he ever leaves the bench during these games) against the best of the Big East, including the #1 Cardinals at the KFC Yum!TM Center, then the NCAA tournament.
How can anyone possibly make wild claims of how great someone will be in two, three years when the only evidence available suggests the opposite? Let’s look at the best shooters in DI basketball for 2011-2012, how they began their college shooting and where they ended up:
I took 71 of the best three-point shooters (3-pt FG Pct. 2011-2012 leaders, only juniors and seniors; there is a minimum amount of shots to make the list, I’m not sure if it was total or average per game – the lowest was 133 attempted) and looked back to see how they shot in their freshmen year (if they did not attempt at least 50 shots their freshmen year, I used the sophomore year but there had to be at least two years between 2011-2012 and their first 50+ attempt year).
How do you think some of the best upperclassmen 3-point shooters performed two to three years before when they were freshmen and sophomores? Did they shoot like Cooney has, or were they already pretty good to begin with?
Of the 71 players, only seven shot below .300 in their first year with at least 50 attempts. In fact, there were more players (eight) who shot above .450 in the first year than shot below .300, with the average being .367 (about 70% are between .316 and .418). The average number of attempts in the first year was 115 (which is probably about where Cooney will be after this year). There was no correlation between shooting percentage in the first year and shooting percent in the 2011-2012 season or shooting percentage and number of attempts.
In other words: given a top-shooting upperclassmen (which Cooney may be someday), what is the probability that they shot less than .300 two to three years prior? About 1 out of 10. Even better: given a high-volume, low percentage three-point shooter who is an underclassmen (which Cooney is currently), what is the probability that they become one of the best in the country when they are an upperclassmen? Who knows, but it is probably not very high.
To put things in perspective and not dwell on the negatives, Cooney is an excellent player to have. I would pick him before most of the guards in the country, as JB and the staff did. His offensive efficiency is as high as MCW and Triche and he is athletic enough to compete with most college players. Will he get better? Sure. Will he ever become an elite shooter? The numbers seem to be against him, but here is some encouraging history:
*Preston Shumpert: freshmen year (27/93 = .290)…senior year (88/233 = .378)
*Demetris Nichols: freshmen year (17/72 = .236)…senior year (100/240 = .417)
Thus far, he is averaging 13.6 MPG in 17 games and is shooting 19 of 66 from 3-pt land. That’s a success rate of .288, worse than Southerland, Triche, Fair and Grant. He has attempted third most on the team and is shooting, per minute, more threes than anyone else (Southerland =.205/min, Triche =.132/min, MCW =.104/min and Cooney= .284/min!). Now, I’m not saying he is a drain on the team and should be playing for LeMoyne or anything, but I can’t think of a player who is shooting as many threes and has made less than him. Sure, Trevor could get hot in the next few months, but he will be playing (if he ever leaves the bench during these games) against the best of the Big East, including the #1 Cardinals at the KFC Yum!TM Center, then the NCAA tournament.
How can anyone possibly make wild claims of how great someone will be in two, three years when the only evidence available suggests the opposite? Let’s look at the best shooters in DI basketball for 2011-2012, how they began their college shooting and where they ended up:
I took 71 of the best three-point shooters (3-pt FG Pct. 2011-2012 leaders, only juniors and seniors; there is a minimum amount of shots to make the list, I’m not sure if it was total or average per game – the lowest was 133 attempted) and looked back to see how they shot in their freshmen year (if they did not attempt at least 50 shots their freshmen year, I used the sophomore year but there had to be at least two years between 2011-2012 and their first 50+ attempt year).
How do you think some of the best upperclassmen 3-point shooters performed two to three years before when they were freshmen and sophomores? Did they shoot like Cooney has, or were they already pretty good to begin with?
Of the 71 players, only seven shot below .300 in their first year with at least 50 attempts. In fact, there were more players (eight) who shot above .450 in the first year than shot below .300, with the average being .367 (about 70% are between .316 and .418). The average number of attempts in the first year was 115 (which is probably about where Cooney will be after this year). There was no correlation between shooting percentage in the first year and shooting percent in the 2011-2012 season or shooting percentage and number of attempts.
In other words: given a top-shooting upperclassmen (which Cooney may be someday), what is the probability that they shot less than .300 two to three years prior? About 1 out of 10. Even better: given a high-volume, low percentage three-point shooter who is an underclassmen (which Cooney is currently), what is the probability that they become one of the best in the country when they are an upperclassmen? Who knows, but it is probably not very high.
To put things in perspective and not dwell on the negatives, Cooney is an excellent player to have. I would pick him before most of the guards in the country, as JB and the staff did. His offensive efficiency is as high as MCW and Triche and he is athletic enough to compete with most college players. Will he get better? Sure. Will he ever become an elite shooter? The numbers seem to be against him, but here is some encouraging history:
*Preston Shumpert: freshmen year (27/93 = .290)…senior year (88/233 = .378)
*Demetris Nichols: freshmen year (17/72 = .236)…senior year (100/240 = .417)
