Lower you expectations of Cooney

[tbonezone]

good post. well thought out,researched and analyzed.much better than the (insert name) sucks variety. and unlike earlier in the year when 1 or 2 makes or misses really swings the %'s we're now beginning to get a fairly decent sample size to grade on and frankly sub 30 for a "shooter" ain't great. more disturbing his misses typically aren't of the rim out variety.more like What. really hoping trevor lights up the cards today and starts working his numbers up to around 37-38% range.

 

[Marsh01]

you maybe right, but surely you realize that its entirely different - comparing big men who were never taught how to be big men to a guard is bad comparison

M y point is to lets see how he is 2 years from now before we pass judgement on him

 

[Gabjon]

Interestingly, Cooney shot 37% his Senior year of High School
The kid is going to be a valuable contributor for 5 years before it's all said and done. Eventually he will become more comfortable playing at the collegiate level and I have little doubt that he will not only be a very good 3 pt. shooter but a considerable contributor in other areas such as defense and leadership.

I am the only one who thinks 37% 3pt and more concerning 77%ft are not indications that he is a "knock down shooter". The high school 3pt line is closer than the college and the competition is much much weaker! 77% from the line? Knock down shooter are 85%+ at the line. What is Tyler Ennis or BJ Johnson shooting this year? I'm curious but can't look it up right now.

 

[tbonezone]

well he's dug himself a hole. how many more shots will he take this season? he's 17 games in and coming into the meat of the schedule when jb's bench minutes historically wither up and die. let's say he takes 50 more shots and hits a very very respectable 40% of them. (oh please,please,please dear god make it rain). that still leaves trevor cooney 39/116. which is of course ...drum roll...33.6 %. which is NOT a great SEASON avg. for someone who's a "pure" ncaa d1 shooter.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

well he's dug a himself a hole. how many more shots will he take this season? we're 17 games in and coming into the meat of the schedule when jb's bench minutes historically wither up and die. let's say he takes 50 more shots and hits a very very respectable 40% of them. (oh please,please,please dear god make it rain). that still leaves trevor cooney 39/116. which is of course ...drum roll...33.6 %. which is not a great SEASON avg. for someone who's a "pure" ncaa d1 shooter.

Suppose that did happen, the 40% from here out thing and the 33.6% season avg. Would you still be lowering your expectations? To me, that would seem like significant improvement throughout the season.

Earlier you wrote "more disturbing his misses aren't of the rim out variety...more like What." I am of the opinion that his What misses are a little less disturbing and more attributable to what looks to be equivalent of stage fright. I expect the stage fright to disappear with reps and experience.

Unfortunately the small sample size indicates nerves could be a problem in hostile LVille, it's a whole new deal and he hasn't responded well so far to new pressure (see Nov, see start of BE). But as I said it is a small sample size. If he somehow gets his act together and goes 4 of 7 in a squeaked out victory in LVille it will mean a lot more to me than his 0 for 7 in the blowout against Colgate.

 

[cuseguy]

Can I lower my expectations for MCW as well? Oh, wait. I already have.

 

[Quazzum69]

Weird timing, he just started to get it going! We all thought he could do it based on his form and in the second half with more minutes it finally looked like he was getting comfortable and started hitting. And now you're telling us to expect less?

He has been having a series of rapid improvement. For instance:
Nov OOC 13%
Dec OOC 36%
1st three of BE/Jan 17%
last game BE 33%
And if you wanted to get even more specific the 2 made out of 6 from the last game were in the second half.

The light just went on! My expectations have risen because an opportunity has just presented itself.

Nope.

Rapid improvement? His percentage is converging towards just below .300 after 66 attempts (If you look at his cumulative 3-pt percentage you'll notice his percentage went up just .035 after the Villanova game). Why divide the first three Big East games and the Villanova game? If he was below .300 before conference play (and against the bottom of the Big East), why or how would he shoot better against Louisville, Notre Dame, Georgetown, etc?

Let's just say Cooney's "true" probability of making a three-pointer is .300 : These latest improvements (2 for 6 against Villanova vs. 1 for 6 against RU, PROV and USF) are just random. If you assume he'll make a shot 30% of the time, the probability of making 2 shots out of 6 (binomial formula, anyone!?) is .324 and the probability of making 1 shot out of 6 is .303!!!

So the moral of the story is I will judge a shooter after 66 shots, not 12.