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Message: [QUOTE="arrow2arinzesknee, post: 208282, member: 1876"] the thing is ACC, and Pac12 are just dreadful this year, take a conference that historically gets 5-8 teams in and drop it to one or maybe two, and someone has to take their place. Not enough mid-majors are having knock out seasons so it stands to me that teams like USF and Cincinnati who has big wins last night continue to have signature wins, and avoid a "bad loss" then they are in, I think the 3 on the bubble now in the Big East is Uconn, WVU, and Seton Hall, and at the worst one of those teams gets in, at the best WVU and Hall have good BE Tournaments and UConn gets in based on their inordinately high computer numbers. 10 is more possible than it seems, just because college basketball as a whole is so down this year, and some conferences are historically weak at the moment. I mean people figure Gonzaga, SMU are both in and the odds one of those two win the WCC is very very high Creighton and Wichita st same thing. a 3 bid Mountain west will probably have one of those 3 win the A-10 probably has Temple and St. Louis and is the conference most likely to steal a bid, but even then it might only steal one. if murray st loses its tournament, again only one at large lost there. no other conference has a sure fire team in it. If all the1 bid leagues actually get 1 bid (counting murray st.) then that takes up 20 bids where the conference has little to no shot at any auto bid coming from there , I can list IMO what they are but no ones gonna care that much about the argument I dont think. that leaves 48 spots open If the other mid-majors and Pac 12 get 2 teams in at most (Conf USA, MVU, WCC) then that take away 8 more teams down to 40 , the mountain west probably has 3 teams that takes us down to 37 and leave me with ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big 10, and SEC left. lets say I missed a team or two and we have 35 bids for the 5 conferences remaining. The ACC is a lock right now for only 3, and will probably get 4 , maybe 5 Duke, UNC, FLST, Virginia bubble: Miami subtract 4 = 31 The Big 12 is a lock for 5 and has one bubble team left in Texas (Kansas, KST, IWST, MIZZ, BAY) Bubble: Texas subtract 5 =26 the Big 10 has a lock right now at 5 with 2 bubble teams (Mich, michst, OHst, Wisc, IND) bubble: Northwestern, Purdue subtract 5 = 21 SEC has 3 locks, and 2 other bubble teams (UK, FLA, Van) bubble: Alabama , Missippi St. subtract 3 = 18. Big East has 5 locks and 5 bubble teams (SU, ND, Marq, GTown, L'ville) bubble: WVU, USF, Cinci, UCONN, Seton Hall subtract 5 = 13 so all in all I have 13 spots left which traditionally are filled out of the power conferences, this assumes Conference USA and the PAC 12 get 2 teams and that another 2 teams that I say I missed sneak in from a mid-major conference (BYU, a colonial team, an A-10 team, Long Beach st, Iona etc.. if they don't win conf tourney etc...) 13 spots for Miami, Texas, Northwestern, Purdue, Alabama, Mississippi st, WVU, USF, Cinci, Uconn and Seton Hall which totals 11 leaving room for 2 other small conference teams or the A-10 or WCC to occur. I think its entirely possible 10 get in [/QUOTE]

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