Lunardi's latest bracetology has TEN(?!?) Big East teams...
- Thread starter 44PRIDE
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5 of them are the last 14 in. Any of them could easily drop out.
Capt. Tuttle
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That is because CBB is so down this year.
kingtidge
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He never had any...
Case and Point: Look at the ridiculous cat he has on his head... his worst decision.
arbitragegls
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whoa...he is hitting over 96% of teams in for past 5 years...he is really good at this...and just maybe..BE is better than we think...
TexanMark
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Most of us could do the same...it isn't that tough.
arrow2arinzesknee
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the thing is ACC, and Pac12 are just dreadful this year, take a conference that historically gets 5-8 teams in and drop it to one or maybe two, and someone has to take their place.
Not enough mid-majors are having knock out seasons so it stands to me that teams like USF and Cincinnati who has big wins last night continue to have signature wins, and avoid a "bad loss" then they are in,
I think the 3 on the bubble now in the Big East is Uconn, WVU, and Seton Hall, and at the worst one of those teams gets in, at the best WVU and Hall have good BE Tournaments and UConn gets in based on their inordinately high computer numbers.
10 is more possible than it seems, just because college basketball as a whole is so down this year, and some conferences are historically weak at the moment.
I mean people figure Gonzaga, SMU are both in and the odds one of those two win the WCC is very very high
Creighton and Wichita st same thing.
a 3 bid Mountain west will probably have one of those 3 win
the A-10 probably has Temple and St. Louis and is the conference most likely to steal a bid, but even then it might only steal one.
if murray st loses its tournament, again only one at large lost there.
no other conference has a sure fire team in it.
If all the1 bid leagues actually get 1 bid (counting murray st.)
then that takes up 20 bids where the conference has little to no shot at any auto bid coming from there , I can list IMO what they are but no ones gonna care that much about the argument I dont think.
that leaves 48 spots open
If the other mid-majors and Pac 12 get 2 teams in at most
(Conf USA, MVU, WCC) then that take away 8 more teams
down to 40 , the mountain west probably has 3 teams
that takes us down to 37 and leave me with ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big 10, and SEC left.
lets say I missed a team or two and we have 35 bids for the 5 conferences remaining.
The ACC is a lock right now for only 3, and will probably get 4 , maybe 5
Duke, UNC, FLST, Virginia
bubble: Miami
subtract 4 = 31
The Big 12 is a lock for 5 and has one bubble team left in Texas
(Kansas, KST, IWST, MIZZ, BAY)
Bubble: Texas
subtract 5 =26
the Big 10 has a lock right now at 5 with 2 bubble teams
(Mich, michst, OHst, Wisc, IND)
bubble: Northwestern, Purdue
subtract 5 = 21
SEC has 3 locks, and 2 other bubble teams
(UK, FLA, Van)
bubble: Alabama , Missippi St.
subtract 3 = 18.
Big East has 5 locks and 5 bubble teams
(SU, ND, Marq, GTown, L'ville)
bubble: WVU, USF, Cinci, UCONN, Seton Hall
subtract 5 = 13
so all in all I have 13 spots left which traditionally are filled out of the power conferences, this assumes Conference USA and the PAC 12 get 2 teams and that another 2 teams that I say I missed sneak in from a mid-major conference (BYU, a colonial team, an A-10 team, Long Beach st, Iona etc.. if they don't win conf tourney etc...)
13 spots for Miami, Texas, Northwestern, Purdue, Alabama, Mississippi st, WVU, USF, Cinci, Uconn and Seton Hall
which totals 11 leaving room for 2 other small conference teams or the A-10 or WCC to occur.
I think its entirely possible 10 get in
Not enough mid-majors are having knock out seasons so it stands to me that teams like USF and Cincinnati who has big wins last night continue to have signature wins, and avoid a "bad loss" then they are in,
I think the 3 on the bubble now in the Big East is Uconn, WVU, and Seton Hall, and at the worst one of those teams gets in, at the best WVU and Hall have good BE Tournaments and UConn gets in based on their inordinately high computer numbers.
10 is more possible than it seems, just because college basketball as a whole is so down this year, and some conferences are historically weak at the moment.
I mean people figure Gonzaga, SMU are both in and the odds one of those two win the WCC is very very high
Creighton and Wichita st same thing.
a 3 bid Mountain west will probably have one of those 3 win
the A-10 probably has Temple and St. Louis and is the conference most likely to steal a bid, but even then it might only steal one.
if murray st loses its tournament, again only one at large lost there.
no other conference has a sure fire team in it.
If all the1 bid leagues actually get 1 bid (counting murray st.)
then that takes up 20 bids where the conference has little to no shot at any auto bid coming from there , I can list IMO what they are but no ones gonna care that much about the argument I dont think.
that leaves 48 spots open
If the other mid-majors and Pac 12 get 2 teams in at most
(Conf USA, MVU, WCC) then that take away 8 more teams
down to 40 , the mountain west probably has 3 teams
that takes us down to 37 and leave me with ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big 10, and SEC left.
lets say I missed a team or two and we have 35 bids for the 5 conferences remaining.
The ACC is a lock right now for only 3, and will probably get 4 , maybe 5
Duke, UNC, FLST, Virginia
bubble: Miami
subtract 4 = 31
The Big 12 is a lock for 5 and has one bubble team left in Texas
(Kansas, KST, IWST, MIZZ, BAY)
Bubble: Texas
subtract 5 =26
the Big 10 has a lock right now at 5 with 2 bubble teams
(Mich, michst, OHst, Wisc, IND)
bubble: Northwestern, Purdue
subtract 5 = 21
SEC has 3 locks, and 2 other bubble teams
(UK, FLA, Van)
bubble: Alabama , Missippi St.
subtract 3 = 18.
Big East has 5 locks and 5 bubble teams
(SU, ND, Marq, GTown, L'ville)
bubble: WVU, USF, Cinci, UCONN, Seton Hall
subtract 5 = 13
so all in all I have 13 spots left which traditionally are filled out of the power conferences, this assumes Conference USA and the PAC 12 get 2 teams and that another 2 teams that I say I missed sneak in from a mid-major conference (BYU, a colonial team, an A-10 team, Long Beach st, Iona etc.. if they don't win conf tourney etc...)
13 spots for Miami, Texas, Northwestern, Purdue, Alabama, Mississippi st, WVU, USF, Cinci, Uconn and Seton Hall
which totals 11 leaving room for 2 other small conference teams or the A-10 or WCC to occur.
I think its entirely possible 10 get in
arrow2arinzesknee
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If I miscalculated sorry, i looked it all over like 10 times before posting and double checked via bubble watch, and championship week sites on ESPN as well as using my own logic, I could have messed up some numbers and could be making wrong assumptions, I just see how it is entirely possible 10 get in
and this year more than any other year is a massive case against expansion
this field sucks
and this year more than any other year is a massive case against expansion
this field sucks
Eric15
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I just can't get my head around it. Are there actually people that watch the NCAA Tournament that think to themselves, "ya know what would make this perfectly harmonious 6-round, 3 weekend unbelievably exciting competition even better? A few dozen more mediocre teams with losing conference records!"
arrow2arinzesknee
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ya I agree completely, this year shows the problems with expansion and magnifies them.
Look I love the NCAA tournament more than any human in their right mind should, I drool over the brackets and become infatuated with looking at statistics and matchups trying to guess the outcomes, but it in an of itself is a poor way to determine a national champion.
They should re-seed after each round in each region, allowing the top 8-10 teams a much easier chance to actually be in the last 16 teams standing.
If a team like VCU or Butler is going to win and go to the championship game anyways then they have to beat the best anyways right?
Marsh01
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No on the reseeding. Good god that would completely ruin the tournament. VCU did have to beat Kansas last year.
Marsh01
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If there were 96 teams here is a list of teams that would probably get in.
Illinois
Marshall
Buffalo
LSU
Northern Iowa
Tennessee
Umass
George Mason
Lasalle
Montana
Pitt
St. Bonaventure
arrow2arinzesknee
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it would ruin march madness, but would determine a better champion
K
kingottoiii
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1. He is a cheat. There are only a few games on Sunday and rarely does a bubble team play that day. Yet he updates his bracket right before the announcement? So why does he do that when no new results happen?
2. No one looks at how he seeds teams just who gets in. His seedings are all over the place.
3. I would say that at least 62 of the 66 teams every year are a given. So even a monkey is guaranteed 94%. Since the last 4 teams are the only 4 that require skill to predict, he is in reality hitting 50% (2 of 4). And that is with the inside info he gets on Sunday.
jncuse
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His bracket was updated late Tuesday night. So it does not even consider the huge USF win last night. It also doesn't consider the Colorado St win over UNLV - so they probably move in as well.
The biggest advantage of playing in a good conference is you get opportunities against good (but not great teams) at home. Colorado St only has a decent overall record, but its RPI is good because of its scheudle, and it took are of business against good, but not great, teams at home (UNLV, New Mexico, SD ST)
The biggest advantage of playing in a good conference is you get opportunities against good (but not great teams) at home. Colorado St only has a decent overall record, but its RPI is good because of its scheudle, and it took are of business against good, but not great, teams at home (UNLV, New Mexico, SD ST)
LeMoyneCuse
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I actually took a seminar he offered a few years back on how to draw up a bracket field. It's much harder and more complex than it looks.
K
kingottoiii
Guest
Making a bracket is complex. Yet no one ever grades his brackets and seedings. They just look at who got in and got out. That is pretty easy. There are maybe 7-8 bubble teams left come Selection Sunday fighting for 4-5 spots. By default you should get 63 of 66 teams right.
