Major change to the NCAA Hockey Landscape

[jncuse]

Those that have played major junior hockey in Canada (OHL, WHL, QMJHL) are now eligible to play in the NCAA for the first time ever starting next year. Until now they were deemed "professionals" and were ineligible for the NCAA.

This has major impacts on the player pool in the NCAA, Major Junior (in Canada), and Tier 2 Junior Hockey in Canada. Also impacts kid from US Junior Hockey (regarding there choices as well)

 

[jncuse]

Biggest changes I see
- The player pool for the NCAA has changed drastically. Especially for the inaugural 2025/2026 season when a whole crop of 18,19,20 and 21 year olds that previously played Major Junior in 2024/2025 could be eligible. Obviously not all kids who went the junior route have the desire to go the NCAA route, but some will. And many will not have the educational requirements to do so I would imagine. But its a big pool of quality players coming in -- imagine a mature 21 year old that was top 10 the OHL or WHL in scoring coming in.
- Probably not great for US Born Junior Hockey players with NCAA aspirations. There % in the NCAA will drop
- When the player pool becomes that much stronger, could this be an impetus for some programs to try to get into NCAA Division 1 hockey? I know nothing about the hockey landscape at Syracuse or even if its a consideration.
- How many kids could get the "Calhoun" treatment in the NCAA next year for this new crop of players coming in? Alternatively, some weaker programs with spots open for next year could get some big additions.

From a Major Hockey perspective in Canada
1. They will probably get better 17-18 year olds in the CHL. A portion of Canadian kids with NCAA aspirations avoided the CHL. There will also probably be some elite american Junior Hockey players that are willing to go play in the CHL now that it will not wreck their draft eligibility.

That being said it will be a major hit on CHL for players aged 18-20, who will now play in the CHL, get developed, and then go to the NCAA when its clear there is no easy path to the NHL.

2. Tier 2 Hockey, especially the BCHL in Canada, will probably take a big hit. The BCHL had a controversial split from the rest of Tier 2 Leagues in Canada, and has clearly become the best feeder to the NCAA in Canada. Now the CHL will easily trump the BCHL as the primary feeder.

 

[jncuse]

I'll just give a few examples of players that could come into the NCAA and be high quality immediately. Of course do these guys have the NCAA desire or education... maybe not. Looked at the OHL Scoring Leaders from last year.

Anthony Romani led the OHL in scoring last year with 58 goals. A bit of a late bloomer, was not drafted when first eligible in 2023. He was drafted after leading the league in scoring as a 19 year old in 2024, but it was still only in the sixth round. So he is still a fringe prospect. He's back in the OHL this year. Next year his likely path was a role player in the AHL or even the ECHL. Does he go to the AHL, or now chooses the NCAA?

Or I will give a Tier 2 example in the BCHL. I don't really follow the league but there is a local kid I know. 3 years ago at the age of 16, he made the OHL -- but over 2 years he struggled in the OHL as a 16 and 17 year old -- 7 points in 46 games. Not too good. More importantly he was no longer eligible for the NCAA. He came back to play in his hometown in the CCHL, a Tier 2 league, where he often was the most talented player on the ice. About a month ago he split the CCHL for the BCHL (a higher quality Tier 2 League) in BC/Alberta -- I suspect part of it was to make him marketable for the NCAA but that would purely be speculation.

He's now fourth in the BCHL in scoring (on a PPG basis). Of the 16 leading scorers in the BCHL other than him in PPG, 15 are committed to NCAA programs next year or the year after. Obviously he is now going to get an NCAA scholarship if he has the desire / academics.

He is also the best scorer on his Prince George team. 13 other players on the team are already committed to the NCAA. So this kid who had 7 points in 46 OHL games as a 16/17 year old, 3 years later is the best player amongst a number of players who going to get into the NCAA. Just an example of how much top end players will be added to the player pool.

 

[jncuse]

I buried my point about Syracuse in my paragraphs of rambling above.

But is male hockey ever a possibility at Syracuse. I literally know nothing about the situation as it pertains to Syracuse.

I would think the extra talent pool, could lead to expansion in NCAA Div-1.

 

[upperdeck]

One issue with this is that many of the Canadian kids don't want to do the work to go to school and play college hockey. The more talented kids often start down that road early in their careers and then to try and flip the grades to get into some of the colleges is hard.

Schools like Mich/BU/BC/Harvard who have very few Canadian kids vs some schools like RIT/Cornell with lots of Canadian kids , but still those schools are not that easy to get in to.

 

[im4cuse]

Clearly a bummer for US born kids with D1 aspirations. No matter how well we do in international competitions USA hockey always devalued.
If I won the lottery I would donate it all for a D1 program, including an 8,000 seat arena on campus. Would b a huge boost to women too.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Biggest changes I see
- The player pool for the NCAA has changed drastically. Especially for the inaugural 2025/2026 season when a whole crop of 18,19,20 and 21 year olds that previously played Major Junior in 2024/2025 could be eligible. Obviously not all kids who went the junior route have the desire to go the NCAA route, but some will. And many will not have the educational requirements to do so I would imagine. But its a big pool of quality players coming in -- imagine a mature 21 year old that was top 10 the OHL or WHL in scoring coming in.
- Probably not great for US Born Junior Hockey players with NCAA aspirations. There % in the NCAA will drop
- When the player pool becomes that much stronger, could this be an impetus for some programs to try to get into NCAA Division 1 hockey? I know nothing about the hockey landscape at Syracuse or even if its a consideration.
- How many kids could get the "Calhoun" treatment in the NCAA next year for this new crop of players coming in? Alternatively, some weaker programs with spots open for next year could get some big additions.

From a Major Hockey perspective in Canada
1. They will probably get better 17-18 year olds in the CHL. A portion of Canadian kids with NCAA aspirations avoided the CHL. There will also probably be some elite american Junior Hockey players that are willing to go play in the CHL now that it will not wreck their draft eligibility.

That being said it will be a major hit on CHL for players aged 18-20, who will now play in the CHL, get developed, and then go to the NCAA when its clear there is no easy path to the NHL.

2. Tier 2 Hockey, especially the BCHL in Canada, will probably take a big hit. The BCHL had a controversial split from the rest of Tier 2 Leagues in Canada, and has clearly become the best feeder to the NCAA in Canada. Now the CHL will easily trump the BCHL as the primary feeder.

And D3 hockey schools like Oswego, Plattsburgh, Geneseo and Utica should become "stronger" because some of the kids who might not be "good" enough for the new D1 will end up at those schools.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

If I won the lottery I would donate it all for a D1 program, including an 8,000 seat arena on campus. Would b a huge boost to women too.

I attended the sold out hockey game Friday night between #2 BC and #5 Maine at the 7900 seat Conte center. Incredible atmosphere including probably 3500 students. Huge difference between a program like BC and RPI and Union, two other D1 programs with great academics but very middle of the road success.

 

[jncuse]

One issue with this is that many of the Canadian kids don't want to do the work to go to school and play college hockey. The more talented kids often start down that road early in their careers and then to try and flip the grades to get into some of the colleges is hard.

Schools like Mich/BU/BC/Harvard who have very few Canadian kids vs some schools like RIT/Cornell with lots of Canadian kids , but still those schools are not that easy to get in to.

There are a decent number major junior players that end up going to the CIS (Canadian University Hockey), as there is the existing structure in place to encourage kids to keep up with their schooling while in the CHL (they have a paid education program) -- of course not all choose to, but there is a structure which lots of players have taken advantage of. Some of those kids are getting into schools like UofT, Waterloo, Western, Queen's -- those are not exactly easy to get into. Not a Harvard or a BC, but if you are getting into those schools above you are easily going to find some NCAA schools that will accept you academically. And some are going to Lakehead which is low end academic wise -- but I assume there are a few schools like that in D1 hockey too.

I assume a decent number of those profile type of players that went the CIS route before, could get in somewhere in the NCAA realm now.

But you are correct that some never set themselves up for this route.

 

[jncuse]

How much has NIL infiltrated college hockey (if at all).

There would certainly have been some kids who had the choice of CIS (Canadian university hockey) or minor pro, and chose the minor pro route. In part because the CIS is not very popular like the NCAA.

As an aside its amazing how nobody really cares about our college sports in Canada even in those with a pro following (football, basketball, or hockey).

 

[jncuse]

I just went and checked the McGill hockey roster from last year. An extremely strong academic institution. Certainly if you can get into McGill you can find your way to a strong enough institution in the NCAA.

McGill was 21-5, so one of the better teams in the CIS. Their 15 best scorers all played in Canadian Junior Hockey, and I imagine if they were interested in the NCAA almost all of them would have been able to find a spot somewhere.

 

[jncuse]

Clearly a bummer for US born kids with D1 aspirations. No matter how well we do in international competitions USA hockey always devalued.
If I won the lottery I would donate it all for a D1 program, including an 8,000 seat arena on campus. Would b a huge boost to women too.

Yes there are certainly some kids / institutions that are going to get a hit out of this. Which made me wonder if NCAA D1 hockey expansion will become more of a possibility.

 

[upperdeck]

The schools that many of the kids can get in to are also the ones that don't usually take canadian kids, Then add the fact you can't do NIL as easily as well

 

[jncuse]

The schools that many of the kids can get in to are also the ones that don't usually take canadian kids, Then add the fact you can't do NIL as easily as well

McGill and UBC are typically ranked as top 50 universities in the world and are not exactly easy to get into. Their hockey teams are filled with ex junior hockey players, and were amongst the best in Canada university hockey wise last year. What % of NCAA Div 1 hockey schools do you think those kids are not going to qualify for academically, especially if they can help a sports team.

Now perhaps a fair amount of those kids will have no interest going the NCAA route.

 

[upperdeck]

Kids playing college hockey in Canada for the most part would not make any of the top half rosters in the NCAA,

Getting kids into some schools is pretty easy like Harv/Princeton is easy. Not as easy to get into other schools.

 

[jncuse]

Kids playing college hockey in Canada for the most part would not make any of the top half rosters in the NCAA,

Getting kids into some schools is pretty easy like Harv/Princeton is easy. Not as easy to get into other schools.

I don't think that's accurate- McGill for example had at least 5 players that had PPG season (or in the range) in their last season in CHL ... and that's before they even went to University. You think they could not play in the middle of most NCAA rosters? They won't be the kids that get drafted, or on the top line, but they are probably quite capable of depth roles, especially when they are more mature age and physically compared to typical freshman - they come in as 20 year olds, not 18 year olds. For a depth player that matters.

Remember that for the 2025/26 and 26/27 season you are getting many of these kids as mature and stronger 20 year old freshman instead of 18 year olds. That's a big advantage at least for the crop that will infiltrate the NCAA in the next few years.

You can certainly argue that the elite prospects in the world are not in the CIS (which is a 100% true)... the elite prospects either go the CHL route or the NCAA route and make their way into pro hockey. But the majority of the NCAA is not NHL prospects even for the best teams.

Let's look at the example of BCHL, by a clear margin the largest Canadian feeder league into the NCAA. The best tier 2 league in Canada.

In their 23 team league, they currently have 245 players currently committed to the NCAA. Almost half the players in the league.

2024-25 College Commitments

bchl.ca

Yet when the players in the BCHL that were not taking the academic direction get called up to the WHL they almost always have a real decline in performance. That's because the WHL is better than the BCHL. So BCHL as per the link above is sending nearly half the league to the NCAA at some point -- but is still weaker than the WHL. I think its hard to then argue that a player that went the WHL route, had some decent success in the WHL, and can qualify for the CIS, would not be capable of competing at the NCAA. Of course they are not going to be an NHL draft pick -- but they are also often going to be a year or two older.

 

[upperdeck]

just basing it on having seen them play a bunch over the years.

I have not talked to anyone actually recruiting those kids though

also usually those kids dont want to go on to a US college but I would think a few do.

 

[upperdeck]

I should have asked the scouts I was sitting around last week but I was more into watching the games.

 

[jncuse]

I should have asked the scouts I was sitting around last week but I was more into watching the games.

We will soon found out either way. I think the big advantage for any interested junior kid will be that they are a 20 year old freshman. Sort of like holding a kid back for a few years so they can get in somewhere more easily.

I think it will have a large impact in the first few years, and level off after that, just because of the sheer numbers of players that become eligible. Even if many are not interested as you suggest, the numbers that become eligible are huge. It will be sort of like the double class of basketball players that plugged up the NCAA for a few years after Covid. You will now have up to 3 age classes of Canadian kids now being eligible for the first time -- 18, 19, 20 year olds. Heck you might even have some elite CIS Kids that are now 21, 22, and 23 looking to transfer into the middle roster of the NCAA. A kid that played 3 years of junior hockey in Canada, gets 3 years of subsidized education (that is the agreement junior kids get 1 year played, 1 year paid). He gets to year 4 of the CIS, he has to pay -- maybe I look at the US for that final year of education.

If I was a fringe kid on an any NCAA team I would be afraid of being "Calhouned" - do they do that in hockey.

 

[im4cuse]

And D3 hockey schools like Oswego, Plattsburgh, Geneseo and Utica should become "stronger" because some of the kids who might not be "good" enough for the new D1 will end up at those schools.

Exactly the point I was trying to make. We had great kid from Maryland recruited by Utica. Will b harder to make it

 

[upperdeck]

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