Major change to the NCAA Hockey Landscape

[jncuse]

Those that have played major junior hockey in Canada (OHL, WHL, QMJHL) are now eligible to play in the NCAA for the first time ever starting next year. Until now they were deemed "professionals" and were ineligible for the NCAA.

This has major impacts on the player pool in the NCAA, Major Junior (in Canada), and Tier 2 Junior Hockey in Canada. Also impacts kid from US Junior Hockey (regarding there choices as well)

 

[jncuse]

Biggest changes I see
- The player pool for the NCAA has changed drastically. Especially for the inaugural 2025/2026 season when a whole crop of 18,19,20 and 21 year olds that previously played Major Junior in 2024/2025 could be eligible. Obviously not all kids who went the junior route have the desire to go the NCAA route, but some will. And many will not have the educational requirements to do so I would imagine. But its a big pool of quality players coming in -- imagine a mature 21 year old that was top 10 the OHL or WHL in scoring coming in.
- Probably not great for US Born Junior Hockey players with NCAA aspirations. There % in the NCAA will drop
- When the player pool becomes that much stronger, could this be an impetus for some programs to try to get into NCAA Division 1 hockey? I know nothing about the hockey landscape at Syracuse or even if its a consideration.
- How many kids could get the "Calhoun" treatment in the NCAA next year for this new crop of players coming in? Alternatively, some weaker programs with spots open for next year could get some big additions.

From a Major Hockey perspective in Canada
1. They will probably get better 17-18 year olds in the CHL. A portion of Canadian kids with NCAA aspirations avoided the CHL. There will also probably be some elite american Junior Hockey players that are willing to go play in the CHL now that it will not wreck their draft eligibility.

That being said it will be a major hit on CHL for players aged 18-20, who will now play in the CHL, get developed, and then go to the NCAA when its clear there is no easy path to the NHL.

2. Tier 2 Hockey, especially the BCHL in Canada, will probably take a big hit. The BCHL had a controversial split from the rest of Tier 2 Leagues in Canada, and has clearly become the best feeder to the NCAA in Canada. Now the CHL will easily trump the BCHL as the primary feeder.

 

[jncuse]

I'll just give a few examples of players that could come into the NCAA and be high quality immediately. Of course do these guys have the NCAA desire or education... maybe not. Looked at the OHL Scoring Leaders from last year.

Anthony Romani led the OHL in scoring last year with 58 goals. A bit of a late bloomer, was not drafted when first eligible in 2023. He was drafted after leading the league in scoring as a 19 year old in 2024, but it was still only in the sixth round. So he is still a fringe prospect. He's back in the OHL this year. Next year his likely path was a role player in the AHL or even the ECHL. Does he go to the AHL, or now chooses the NCAA?

Or I will give a Tier 2 example in the BCHL. I don't really follow the league but there is a local kid I know. 3 years ago at the age of 16, he made the OHL -- but over 2 years he struggled in the OHL as a 16 and 17 year old -- 7 points in 46 games. Not too good. More importantly he was no longer eligible for the NCAA. He came back to play in his hometown in the CCHL, a Tier 2 league, where he often was the most talented player on the ice. About a month ago he split the CCHL for the BCHL (a higher quality Tier 2 League) in BC/Alberta -- I suspect part of it was to make him marketable for the NCAA but that would purely be speculation.

He's now fourth in the BCHL in scoring (on a PPG basis). Of the 16 leading scorers in the BCHL other than him in PPG, 15 are committed to NCAA programs next year or the year after. Obviously he is now going to get an NCAA scholarship if he has the desire / academics.

He is also the best scorer on his Prince George team. 13 other players on the team are already committed to the NCAA. So this kid who had 7 points in 46 OHL games as a 16/17 year old, 3 years later is the best player amongst a number of players who going to get into the NCAA. Just an example of how much top end players will be added to the player pool.

 

[jncuse]

I buried my point about Syracuse in my paragraphs of rambling above.

But is male hockey ever a possibility at Syracuse. I literally know nothing about the situation as it pertains to Syracuse.

I would think the extra talent pool, could lead to expansion in NCAA Div-1.

 

[upperdeck]

One issue with this is that many of the Canadian kids don't want to do the work to go to school and play college hockey. The more talented kids often start down that road early in their careers and then to try and flip the grades to get into some of the colleges is hard.

Schools like Mich/BU/BC/Harvard who have very few Canadian kids vs some schools like RIT/Cornell with lots of Canadian kids , but still those schools are not that easy to get in to.

 

[im4cuse]

Clearly a bummer for US born kids with D1 aspirations. No matter how well we do in international competitions USA hockey always devalued.
If I won the lottery I would donate it all for a D1 program, including an 8,000 seat arena on campus. Would b a huge boost to women too.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Biggest changes I see
- The player pool for the NCAA has changed drastically. Especially for the inaugural 2025/2026 season when a whole crop of 18,19,20 and 21 year olds that previously played Major Junior in 2024/2025 could be eligible. Obviously not all kids who went the junior route have the desire to go the NCAA route, but some will. And many will not have the educational requirements to do so I would imagine. But its a big pool of quality players coming in -- imagine a mature 21 year old that was top 10 the OHL or WHL in scoring coming in.
- Probably not great for US Born Junior Hockey players with NCAA aspirations. There % in the NCAA will drop
- When the player pool becomes that much stronger, could this be an impetus for some programs to try to get into NCAA Division 1 hockey? I know nothing about the hockey landscape at Syracuse or even if its a consideration.
- How many kids could get the "Calhoun" treatment in the NCAA next year for this new crop of players coming in? Alternatively, some weaker programs with spots open for next year could get some big additions.

From a Major Hockey perspective in Canada
1. They will probably get better 17-18 year olds in the CHL. A portion of Canadian kids with NCAA aspirations avoided the CHL. There will also probably be some elite american Junior Hockey players that are willing to go play in the CHL now that it will not wreck their draft eligibility.

That being said it will be a major hit on CHL for players aged 18-20, who will now play in the CHL, get developed, and then go to the NCAA when its clear there is no easy path to the NHL.

2. Tier 2 Hockey, especially the BCHL in Canada, will probably take a big hit. The BCHL had a controversial split from the rest of Tier 2 Leagues in Canada, and has clearly become the best feeder to the NCAA in Canada. Now the CHL will easily trump the BCHL as the primary feeder.

And D3 hockey schools like Oswego, Plattsburgh, Geneseo and Utica should become "stronger" because some of the kids who might not be "good" enough for the new D1 will end up at those schools.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

If I won the lottery I would donate it all for a D1 program, including an 8,000 seat arena on campus. Would b a huge boost to women too.

I attended the sold out hockey game Friday night between #2 BC and #5 Maine at the 7900 seat Conte center. Incredible atmosphere including probably 3500 students. Huge difference between a program like BC and RPI and Union, two other D1 programs with great academics but very middle of the road success.

 

[jncuse]

One issue with this is that many of the Canadian kids don't want to do the work to go to school and play college hockey. The more talented kids often start down that road early in their careers and then to try and flip the grades to get into some of the colleges is hard.

Schools like Mich/BU/BC/Harvard who have very few Canadian kids vs some schools like RIT/Cornell with lots of Canadian kids , but still those schools are not that easy to get in to.

There are a decent number major junior players that end up going to the CIS (Canadian University Hockey), as there is the existing structure in place to encourage kids to keep up with their schooling while in the CHL (they have a paid education program) -- of course not all choose to, but there is a structure which lots of players have taken advantage of. Some of those kids are getting into schools like UofT, Waterloo, Western, Queen's -- those are not exactly easy to get into. Not a Harvard or a BC, but if you are getting into those schools above you are easily going to find some NCAA schools that will accept you academically. And some are going to Lakehead which is low end academic wise -- but I assume there are a few schools like that in D1 hockey too.

I assume a decent number of those profile type of players that went the CIS route before, could get in somewhere in the NCAA realm now.

But you are correct that some never set themselves up for this route.

 

[jncuse]

How much has NIL infiltrated college hockey (if at all).

There would certainly have been some kids who had the choice of CIS (Canadian university hockey) or minor pro, and chose the minor pro route. In part because the CIS is not very popular like the NCAA.

As an aside its amazing how nobody really cares about our college sports in Canada even in those with a pro following (football, basketball, or hockey).

 

[jncuse]

I just went and checked the McGill hockey roster from last year. An extremely strong academic institution. Certainly if you can get into McGill you can find your way to a strong enough institution in the NCAA.

McGill was 21-5, so one of the better teams in the CIS. Their 15 best scorers all played in Canadian Junior Hockey, and I imagine if they were interested in the NCAA almost all of them would have been able to find a spot somewhere.

 

[jncuse]

Clearly a bummer for US born kids with D1 aspirations. No matter how well we do in international competitions USA hockey always devalued.
If I won the lottery I would donate it all for a D1 program, including an 8,000 seat arena on campus. Would b a huge boost to women too.

Yes there are certainly some kids / institutions that are going to get a hit out of this. Which made me wonder if NCAA D1 hockey expansion will become more of a possibility.

 

[upperdeck]

The schools that many of the kids can get in to are also the ones that don't usually take canadian kids, Then add the fact you can't do NIL as easily as well

 

[jncuse]

The schools that many of the kids can get in to are also the ones that don't usually take canadian kids, Then add the fact you can't do NIL as easily as well

McGill and UBC are typically ranked as top 50 universities in the world and are not exactly easy to get into. Their hockey teams are filled with ex junior hockey players, and were amongst the best in Canada university hockey wise last year. What % of NCAA Div 1 hockey schools do you think those kids are not going to qualify for academically, especially if they can help a sports team.

Now perhaps a fair amount of those kids will have no interest going the NCAA route.

 

[upperdeck]

Kids playing college hockey in Canada for the most part would not make any of the top half rosters in the NCAA,

Getting kids into some schools is pretty easy like Harv/Princeton is easy. Not as easy to get into other schools.

 

[jncuse]

Kids playing college hockey in Canada for the most part would not make any of the top half rosters in the NCAA,

Getting kids into some schools is pretty easy like Harv/Princeton is easy. Not as easy to get into other schools.

I don't think that's accurate- McGill for example had at least 5 players that had PPG season (or in the range) in their last season in CHL ... and that's before they even went to University. You think they could not play in the middle of most NCAA rosters? They won't be the kids that get drafted, or on the top line, but they are probably quite capable of depth roles, especially when they are more mature age and physically compared to typical freshman - they come in as 20 year olds, not 18 year olds. For a depth player that matters.

Remember that for the 2025/26 and 26/27 season you are getting many of these kids as mature and stronger 20 year old freshman instead of 18 year olds. That's a big advantage at least for the crop that will infiltrate the NCAA in the next few years.

You can certainly argue that the elite prospects in the world are not in the CIS (which is a 100% true)... the elite prospects either go the CHL route or the NCAA route and make their way into pro hockey. But the majority of the NCAA is not NHL prospects even for the best teams.

Let's look at the example of BCHL, by a clear margin the largest Canadian feeder league into the NCAA. The best tier 2 league in Canada.

In their 23 team league, they currently have 245 players currently committed to the NCAA. Almost half the players in the league.

2024-25 College Commitments

bchl.ca

Yet when the players in the BCHL that were not taking the academic direction get called up to the WHL they almost always have a real decline in performance. That's because the WHL is better than the BCHL. So BCHL as per the link above is sending nearly half the league to the NCAA at some point -- but is still weaker than the WHL. I think its hard to then argue that a player that went the WHL route, had some decent success in the WHL, and can qualify for the CIS, would not be capable of competing at the NCAA. Of course they are not going to be an NHL draft pick -- but they are also often going to be a year or two older.

 

[upperdeck]

just basing it on having seen them play a bunch over the years.

I have not talked to anyone actually recruiting those kids though

also usually those kids dont want to go on to a US college but I would think a few do.

 

[upperdeck]

I should have asked the scouts I was sitting around last week but I was more into watching the games.

 

[jncuse]

I should have asked the scouts I was sitting around last week but I was more into watching the games.

We will soon found out either way. I think the big advantage for any interested junior kid will be that they are a 20 year old freshman. Sort of like holding a kid back for a few years so they can get in somewhere more easily.

I think it will have a large impact in the first few years, and level off after that, just because of the sheer numbers of players that become eligible. Even if many are not interested as you suggest, the numbers that become eligible are huge. It will be sort of like the double class of basketball players that plugged up the NCAA for a few years after Covid. You will now have up to 3 age classes of Canadian kids now being eligible for the first time -- 18, 19, 20 year olds. Heck you might even have some elite CIS Kids that are now 21, 22, and 23 looking to transfer into the middle roster of the NCAA. A kid that played 3 years of junior hockey in Canada, gets 3 years of subsidized education (that is the agreement junior kids get 1 year played, 1 year paid). He gets to year 4 of the CIS, he has to pay -- maybe I look at the US for that final year of education.

If I was a fringe kid on an any NCAA team I would be afraid of being "Calhouned" - do they do that in hockey.

 

[im4cuse]

And D3 hockey schools like Oswego, Plattsburgh, Geneseo and Utica should become "stronger" because some of the kids who might not be "good" enough for the new D1 will end up at those schools.

Exactly the point I was trying to make. We had great kid from Maryland recruited by Utica. Will b harder to make it

 

[upperdeck]

uscho comments on this

 

[jncuse]

uscho comments on this

There were some bad takes in that article, but some fair ones. Highlighted 3 below.

Some really inaccurate comments on the lack of education of Canadian players in the CHL. In the past sure no doubt, but for well over a decade kids are incentivized to focus on their grades. due to the academic scholarship program the CHL were forced to implement as a response to the NCAA in the 2000's. And kids are clearly taking advantage of it.

And before I start there are things that I don't like about the CHL. I don't like that kids get drafted far away from home, and have to go play at time 10-15 hours away from home at 16 or 17 years old. I wouldn't want to sign my kid up for that.

But thankfully they did set up a scholarship program in the 2000's as a response to the NCAA threat which has been heavily used. In 2023-2024 alone, the OHL had 228 former players earning scholarships in the CIS (Canadian University Hockey).

OHL Scholarship Program Investment Tops $3.2 Million in 2023-24 - Ontario Hockey League

A total of 331 graduates utilized their OHL Scholarship at post-secondary institutions during the 2023-24 academic year.

chl.ca

bad take #1 - Where I see the biggest challenge for CHL players joining college hockey is what those players do to maintain their eligibility while playing major junior. Will they keep attending high school and maintain the minimum grade-point average to qualify for the college of their choice? That’s been one of the biggest points coaches have addressed with me thus far."

Obviously this guy has no clue what is going on academically. Simply look at the above -- 228 former OHL players were getting scholarships of some sort attending Canadian universities in the last academic year. Obviously they had to get some education while they were playing in the OHL.

Does this guy think Canadian universities are kindergarten, and that they don't look at grades? If those kids have high enough grades to get into the CIS, they can get into some NCAA schools (obviously there will be barriers for some to the better academic institutions in the NCAA, similar to Canada)

To be fair some of those Canadian kids probably took the extra year or two they had to play in the CHL to build up their grades.

bad take #2 In fact, one of my issues all along with Canadian major junior teams is how exploitive they can be, promising young players incentives – including tuition reimbursement – that may be unattainable given the terms of their contracts.

Again this is BS. The rule is very simple. You sign your card for that year, you get 1 year of academic scholarship. There is no negotiation in this, its not cloudy, it can't get pulled. If you are a parent and are concerned about your kid getting an education, you told the team to give you a contract for the year before you stepped into a training camp losing your NCAA eligibility.

Fair Comment #1 - The other point to consider is how leagues like the OHL, WHL and QMJHL will react. What will they tell players? I am sure as players age out of that league, there will be some coaches who encourage players who aren’t ready for the pro game to head to an American college team?

But what happens when a college team poaches an elite 17- or 18-year-old from those leagues?

He is correct. There will be poaching.
This is where the CHL's / OHL academic system will work against them. Or simply the fact that kids won't hide in Tier 2 junior hockey Canada at 16 or 17 to stay NCAA eligible. They will go to the OHL for a year or two and leave.

1. Kids are incentivized to keep up with their education.
2. In the OHL you need to play 4 years to get a full 4 year scholarship (its 1 for 1)

Now if a kid at 18 decides they want to go to university (and are OK with Canada or the US), do they jump ship to the NCAA or do they stay in the OHL for 2 more years, then start their education 2 years later.

My Comment - The above being said, if the NIL offered to a player is basically nothing, a 4 year OHL player, who now gets a 4 year Canadian scholarship. may simply choose to stay home in the CIS over the NCAA. There will be some that don't have the skill for the NCAA, but many will have the skill. But some will have the choice.

 

[jncuse]

Why did I bump this thread. Because there are 3 kids alone in Eastern Ontario that I am familiar with as they developed, who are going the NCAA route next year and are playing junior hockey right now. There cases are all a little bit different. I'll give the details on #3 when things are made public.

#1. Cedrick Guindon - University of Vermont

By far the most interesting one. We are talking about a top end junior player (9th in the OHL), drafted in the NHL (4th rounder in 2022), who chose the NCAA over the AHL most likely next year. I think that is a smart move for him.

He will be 21 years old walking onto the Vermont campus next year.


#2 Remi Gelinas - Clarkson

This was a kid who led the CCHL in scoring this year for Hawkesbury (Tier 2 Junior Hockey in Canada are leagues those players played in to protect NCAA eligibility and who were not OHL ready at 17 in certain cases). But he was not really getting much D1 traction. And he was certainly not going to play in the CHL -- at best he would have only got 1 year scholarship.

When the NCAA barriers came down. he was to sign with a team in the Quebec Junior League and get more exposure if he played well. He went to the Q, scoring 8 goals in 6 games, and Clarkson came calling for him. (he now has 16 goals in 14 games in the Q)

 

[upperdeck]

I will try to mention this to the coaches when the season is over and see what they think

 

[jncuse]

I will try to mention this to the coaches when the season is over and see what they think

It won't hurt the NCAA at all -- it will only strengthen the level of players, and perhaps make some lower caliber teams better. Only thing that could be a negative, and I totally understand the US perspective that its better to have more spots for American players.

I found a useful link, that has all the recent commitments by date.

RinkNet College Commitments List

www.collegecommitments.com

By my count (could be off a few either way) there have been 68 players from the CHL that have committed to the NCAA since it became allowed on November 7th, and I am sure there will be more. (That's over 1 per team, based on my reading that there are 60 D1 teams in the NCAA) That seems pretty significant to me. Its certainly not a CHL takeover, but its enough. I think the biggest hit comes this year because you could have 18, 19 or 20 year olds making the jumo.

I created a list of the players on each team. There were a few teams that seemed to have been more active in this regard -- Bowling Green 7, Clarkson 5, Nebraska Omaha 4, Quinnipiac 4, (Vermont, Penn St, Mich Tech, Bemjidi, Alaska Fairbanks all with 3). Doesn't seem to be the academic powers, but programs looking to change their fortunes around with 20 and 21 year old freshman next year. (Or 23 and 24 year old seniors in a few years )

Bowling Green was the one that seemed to jump on very early over the opportunity. They signed 6 guys between November 14th and December 2... they were getting about a 1/3 of the signees from the CHL early on.

Here is the list of the schools that signed players... not the academic powerhouses or Boston powers, but I think some schools looking to change fortunes around with 20 and 21 year old freshman.

Robert Morris
Vermont 3
UMass Lowell 2
Penn St 3
RPI
Denver
Niagara 2
Nebraska-Omaha 4
Michigan Tech 3
Sacred Heart 2
Clarkson 5
Quinnipiac 4
Colorado College
Northern Michigan 2
Bemjidi St 3
Ohio St
Miami
Maine
Michigan St
RIT 2
Minnesota Duluth
Notre Dame 2
Providence
Wisconsin 2
Alaska Fairbanks 3
Colgate
Princeton 2
Bowling Green 7
New Hampshire 2
Minnesota St 2
UConn
Lake Superior St