Major change to the NCAA Hockey Landscape

[jncuse]

The other thing I noted was that there was 51 players that had committed to NCAA schools prior to November 2024, have now joined CHL teams since November 2024. (I assume a few of the 68 I identified above, were probably in the same boat)

So basically at the end of the day the clear losers are the Secondary Junior Leagues that housed good players who had NCAA aspirations that avoided the CHL because it would have made them NCAA ineligible. These would be CJHL (Tier 2 Junior) in Canada and even the USHL in the states. Now these teams are losing their best players to the CHL.

In fact a number of USHL (US Junior hockey) teams have applied for entry into Canada and are getting blocked by USA Hockey.

The NCAA comes out a winner in this (other than the above noted US born kids losing spots) You are basically getting kids developed for you in some cases up to the age of 20 in Canada before they come to the NCAA. How big or not big that parade of players is unknown, but either way there isn't much negative in terms of quality of players.

The CHL (OHL, WHL, QMHL) are probably more neutral. Yes they are getting more 16, 17 and 18 year old kids, from both Canada and the US that will now play in the league. But you may also be losing some 18 and 19 year old kids to the NCAA now.

 

[jncuse]

A data update as of today, and what I perceive is the impact. Its certainly not insignificant.

Source (I had to some counts and collation)

RinkNet College Commitments List

www.collegecommitments.com

#1) 75 to 80 CHL (2004's) have committed to NCAA Schools, (this includes a few 2005 in the WHL if they played a few games as 15 year olds. . Many of these kids seem to be to teams outside the top 10. More than half the eligible 2004's are going to the NCAA in the OHL for example.

#2) Approximately 80 players who were playing in different junior leagues (to avoid the CHL penalties) who had already committed to or intended to commit to NCAA schools (USHL, BCHL) are now playing in the CHL. These are largely 17 and 18 year old kids.

"The 2004 rule... for next year 2005, and year after 2006" I was incorrect in one item earlier. I had said it was erroneous that the CHL had restrictions on players academic choices. There is one big item. The standard CHL player and academic scholarship contract based appears to requires that you do your full CHL service time before you can leave to university and get CHL academic bursary. For this year that means only the 2004 born kids can head to the NCAA after this year. A 2004, 2005 or even 2006 kid, that may be academically eligible can't yet head to the NCAA or the CIS (Canada version of the NCAA). And I believe that is due to the contract they signed when they entered the CHL. The implications of this are the following:
- Only 2004 born CHL players can make the switch to the NCAA in 25/26. (2005 born for 26/27) (2006 born for 27/28). So it will a slow drawn out process.
- NCAA are basically getting 21 year old men as freshman right now, in terms of the players that were in the CHL before the announcement
- That being by 27/28 you will have "double classes" of sorts, as 2006 born will enter the NCAA (as allowed per the contract they signed before this year) but you also have 2008, 2009 born players that joined the CHL since the rule change that didn't have the education clause*. This will have big impacts on the quality of the CHL up to that point, and after that point.

*After the November announcement, Players that are already committed to the NCAA that are coming from other leagues appear to just a player contract, so there is nothing stopping them from leaving.

Impact on the NCAA
I still think it will be a very nice impact on the quality of NCAA play. The CHL players won't necessarily come in and be the best, but they will add greatly to the depth of play and probably create a little more parity at the bottom. For example Bowling Green appears to be going hard after the better 2004 players coming over. Will be interesting to see where they are at in 26/27 with a bunch of 22 year old soph's.

Plus a consistent flow will come
each of the next 3 years. 2004's this year, then 2005 and 2006. So if teams were slower to adapt this year, they have a chance to quickly catch up next year.

Impact on the CHL

Its going to be a positive in 25/26 and 26/27. They will have a higher quality of 17 and 18 year olds kids playing in the CHL, and the 2005 and 2006 born kids will still be protected from leaving to the NCAA.

27/28 is where things can go bad. Currently only 20/21 year old kids can go to the NCAA. By 27/28 it could be 18 and 19 year olds that leave to the NCAA so that will cause some uncertainty.


Impact on the USHL / BCHL (other Tier 2)

These were where the "Shield" leagues where Canadian kids could play to retain their NCAA eligibility. They are losing lots of player. The USHL is also losing a decent amount of American kids to the CHL as there are no longer any consequences for them playing here

 

[jncuse]

Some data specific to NCAA Eligible Players from the OHL (2004 Born)

The 20 OHL teams are allowed to carry 3 overage players born in 2004 (So there are 60 such kids). 2004 born kids are the only players that came to the OHL before the NCAA rule changes, that are eligible to head to the NCAA next year.

31 of the 60 players are going to the NCAA. (So academic eligibility has NOT been an issue)

Of the 29 that are not going to the NCAA
- 9 were drafted to the NHL already and might have some experience in the AHL.
- 6 are Intenational Players

So if you take away those 15 exceptions, its really 31 of 45 eligible kids that are heading to the NCAA as of now. Academic eligibility has not been an issue, because the CHL had already incentivized these kids to keep up with their studies because of their scholarship program (even its lower tier universities academics wise)

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Some data specific to NCAA Eligible Players from the OHL (2004 Born)

The 20 OHL teams are allowed to carry 3 overage players born in 2004 (So there are 60 such kids). 2004 born kids are the only players that came to the OHL before the NCAA rule changes, that are eligible to head to the NCAA next year.

31 of the 60 players are going to the NCAA. (So academic eligibility has NOT been an issue)

Of the 29 that are not going to the NCAA
- 9 were drafted to the NHL already and might have some experience in the AHL.
- 6 are Intenational Players

So if you take away those 15 exceptions, its really 31 of 45 eligible kids that are heading to the NCAA as of now. Academic eligibility has not been an issue, because the CHL had already incentivized these kids to keep up with their studies because of their scholarship program (even its lower tier universities academics wise)

I see where you say there is not going to much of a difference but what's interesting is the make up of some NCAA teams and with the US junior programs getting stronger, is it taking away any scholarships from kids from Canada. And what will the trend look like going forward.

Here is the breakdown on some schools.

Boston College. Ranked #1 in D1. Only has one kid from Canada on their roster. Lots of kids from Mass and NY.

Ohio State. Ranked 9th in D1. Five kids from Canada.

RPI. Struggling D1 program. Has 16 kids from Canada on their roster.

Hobart. #1 ranked team in D3. Has ten kids from Canada.

Utica. Ranked 6th in D3. Has 13 kids from Canada.

Oswego. Won the SUNYAC's, but got booted in 1st rounds of the NCAA D3 playoffs by the #7 team. Has 16 kids from Canada.

 

[jncuse]

I see where you say there is not going to much of a difference but what's interesting is the make up of some NCAA teams and with the US junior programs getting stronger, is it taking away any scholarships from kids from Canada. And what will the trend look like going forward.

Here is the breakdown on some schools.

Boston College. Ranked #1 in D1. Only has one kid from Canada on their roster. Lots of kids from Mass and NY.

Ohio State. Ranked 9th in D1. Five kids from Canada.

RPI. Struggling D1 program. Has 16 kids from Canada on their roster.

Hobart. #1 ranked team in D3. Has ten kids from Canada.

Utica. Ranked 6th in D3. Has 13 kids from Canada.

Oswego. Won the SUNYAC's, but got booted in 1st rounds of the NCAA D3 playoffs by the #7 team. Has 16 kids from Canada.

Likely none of the CHL players would come into D2 or D3. They are above that level.

The change, will certainly take away some D1 scholarships form Canadian kids that were planning on them as well in 2025/2026, but net/net will result in more Canadians in D1-- I shouldn't even be calling them kids anymore, because CHL contract restrictions will result them in being 21 year old Freshman!

I'll explain it this way - There will be somewhere between 80 and 100 CHL players born in 2004, who will be going to the NCAA next year. When they signed CHL contracts in 2020 and 2021, at the time they thought their NCAA dreams were officially dead. So if we were under the old NCAA rules, those 100 D1 players would instead be a mix of Canadian and US Kids. (Say 30/70 as a guess). So 30 Canadian kids who would have scholly's under the old system lose them, and 70 US Kids lose them. They are replaced by 100 Canadians.

Likely none of the CHL players would come into D2 or D3. They are above that level. But the pushdown effect will really strengthen D2 with a batch of kids that would have formerly been D1 players (both Canadian and US)

 

[jncuse]

Another point - the quality of the CIS (Canadian University Hockey) will take a major fall. Many of the 80-100 kids would have went the CIS route instead. And then a similar number next year and the year after.

Although this might be a case of "If the Tree Falls and nobody sees it, did it really fall". University hockey is just not a big deal up here in most uni's.

Many of the 80-100 kids would have went the CIS route instead.

 

[jncuse]

To be clear I don't think Canadians are taking over the NCAA. They will just have a decently higher mix of the players. There will be big programs that currently focus on US players, that could still do the same moving forward. But it might be less of them -- or maybe the Bowling Green's and Nebraska Omaha's get a whole bunch stronger.

And I'm interested in seeing what the impact will be of them coming in as 21 year old players.
It seems a major advantage to get a freshman at 21 instead of 18.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Likely none of the CHL players would come into D2 or D3. They are above that level.

The change, will certainly take away some D1 scholarships form Canadian kids that were planning on them as well in 2025/2026, but net/net will result in more Canadians in D1-- I shouldn't even be calling them kids anymore, because CHL contract restrictions will result them in being 21 year old Freshman!

I'll explain it this way - There will be somewhere between 80 and 100 CHL players born in 2004, who will be going to the NCAA next year. When they signed CHL contracts in 2020 and 2021, at the time they thought their NCAA dreams were officially dead. So if we were under the old NCAA rules, those 100 D1 players would instead be a mix of Canadian and US Kids. (Say 30/70 as a guess). So 30 Canadian kids who would have scholly's under the old system lose them, and 70 US Kids lose them. They are replaced by 100 Canadians.

Likely none of the CHL players would come into D2 or D3. They are above that level. But the pushdown effect will really strengthen D2 with a batch of kids that would have formerly been D1 players (both Canadian and US)

Just an FYI, there really is no D2 hockey, unless you include the six D2 schools that play a regular season, but no post season.

And looking how you broke it down by school, it makes sense.

 

[jncuse]

Huge development today.

Gavin Mckenna, the NHL's best prospect for the 2026 draft is leaving the WHL in Canada, and apparently taking a $700,000 offer to play at Penn St next year.

When I was tracking this during the season the only players that could commit to the NCAA during the season were those in their final year of junior eligibility (so 2004 born players - each team is allowed 3 overagers)). And well over 60% of those players in junior, signed up with an NCAA team.
But since year end there have been some recent 2nd and 3rd round picks that moved over to the NCAA - Harry Mews was perhaps the first significant move of an 18 year old who had been drafted in 2024. But this is by far the biggest move.

Fair to say the change has had a significant impact on all parties involved. And good for the players that now have the choice. As mentioned above the losers at the NCAA D1 level are probably some US born kids unfortunately -- perhaps they will expand D1. And the CHL will lose out with some 18, 19 and 20 year old kids to the NCAA. The CHL will gain some 16 and 17 years old from the US.

But overall what has happened:
- Forr 16 and 17 year olds, in Canada or the US, the best development league is the CHL (Canadian Junior). But is it the best for 19 year olds to dominate.

But once you are eligible for the NCAA (18-20), it's probably be better to develop against older players and get paid a bit in the process.

Or maybe the CHL will need to actually start paying its players.

 

[im4cuse]

Huge development today.

Gavin Mckenna, the NHL's best prospect for the 2026 draft is leaving the WHL in Canada, and apparently taking a $700,000 offer to play at Penn St next year.

When I was tracking this during the season the only players that could commit to the NCAA during the season were those in their final year of junior eligibility.

But since year end there have been some recent 2nd and 3rd round picks that moved over to the NCAA. But this is by far the biggest move.

Fair to say the change has had a significant impact on all parties involved. And good for the players that now have the choice. As mentioned above the losers at the NCAA D1 level are probably some US born kids unfortunately -- perhaps they will expand. And the CHL will lose out with some 18, 19 and 20 year old kids to the NCAA. The CHL will gain some 16 and 17 years old from the US.

But overall what has happened:
Is for 16 and 17 year olds, in Canada or the US, the best development league is the CHL (Canadian Junior)

But once you are eligible for the NCAA (18-20), it's probably be better to develop against older players and get paid a bit in the process.

Or maybe the CHL will need to actually start paying its players.

I’m old enough to remember when they didn’t even have a program other than club

 

[Cusefan95]

I’m old enough to remember when they didn’t even have a program other than club

Considering they didn’t move up from club until 2012, that means you’re at least around 17 or 18.

Their hockey facilities are amazing.