Mandel on the mathematics of bowl likelihood

[FreakTalksAboutSU]

Not sure if this is being discussed elsewhere...

• Finally, we finished with 77 bowl eligible-teams for 70 spots. The teams that will be left out hail from primarily from the non-AQ leagues, but barring some back-room deals, one of these four 6-6 AQ teams -- Washington State, Oregon State, Pittsburgh and Syracuse -- will stay home, too. I went with the Beavers, which ended the year with five straight losses.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/co...lege-football-bowl-projections/#ixzz2mLw5WS00

 

[690West]

and to think I was cheering my tail off for Oregon St. to pull it out the other day...

 

[690West]

Palm is now saying verbatim what Mandel says above. But...ready for this...Palm says Syracuse would travel better than ALL three other teams listed above and thats why he has us in.

"Palm grouped Syracuse with Washington State, Oregon State and Pittsburgh as teams fighting for the final available bowl spots. He said he rates the Syracuse fanbase's willingness to travel as slightly above the other three, the primary reason for SU's inclusion in his projections." -Chris Carlson

 

[Pyle]

Palm is now saying verbatim what Mandel says above. But...ready for this...Palm says Syracuse would travel better than ALL three other teams listed above and thats why he has us in.

Ummmmmmmm...he knows we're talking about football and not basketball...right?

 

[sutomcat]

Palm is now saying verbatim what Mandel says above. But...ready for this...Palm says Syracuse would travel better than ALL three other teams listed above and thats why he has us in.

I don't think SU fans are going to show up in impressive numbers for football in many places but the places were we will show: NYC metro, DC metro, NC research triangle area, Atlanta and Florida, are all places where the ACC has bowls.

This bodes well for us for the future.

 

[TexanMark]

and to think I was cheering my tail off for Oregon St. to pull it out the other day...

And a bunch of you Morons (690W I kid) were also cheering for Miss St when they got their 6th win...this year the ACC is short on slots due to adding Pitt/SU.

 

[690West]

Ummmmmmmm...he knows we're talking about football and not basketball...right?

I travel for football and basketball and I've been pleasantly surprised recently how well we show for football away games.

 

[TexanMark]

Ummmmmmmm...he knows we're talking about football and not basketball...right?

Forget it, he's rolling

 

[upperdeck]

no teams travel, but even 1-2K is better than most for these lower bowls if its not a team that traditionally stays home.

 

[Noexcuse]

I don't think SU fans are going to show up in impressive numbers for football in many places but the places were we will show: NYC metro, DC metro, NC research triangle area, Atlanta and Florida, are all places where the ACC has bowls.

This bodes well for us for the future.

SU could also do what Rutgers did under Shady. Send an advance team down to whatever city the bowl game is in, scope out the senior centers, hand out free tickets and t shirts and bus them in as an instant alumni base.

 

[Moontan]

this year the ACC is short on slots due to adding Pitt/SU.

That's what happens when you add winning, brand name, programs. They should've expected this.

 

[Pyle]

That's what happens when you add winning, brand name, programs. They should've expected this.

I think they did, check out the bowl tie-ins for next year. I think the ACC has 11 as opposed to 9 this year.

 

[Chip]

Don't know if it was mentioned but Phil Steele has us bowling now (I guess he didn't on Sunday). Has us in Beef O' Brady vs East Carolina.

 

[FreakTalksAboutSU]

Don't know if it was mentioned but Phil Steele has us bowling now (I guess he didn't on Sunday). Has us in Beef O' Brady vs East Carolina.

i saw this and it was curious to me. No one else has us going there. Probably the best destination I have seen.

 

[TexanMark]

i saw this and it was curious to me. No one else has us going there. Probably the best destination I have seen.

I still don't think St. Pete is in play as the Sun Belt has a B/U agreement...but Steele usually has his together on detail stuff like this.

 

[Millhouse]

I still don't think St. Pete is in play as the Sun Belt has a B/U agreement...but Steele usually has his together on detail stuff like this.

the stranger it sounds, the more likely i am to believe it. you figure there's gotta be a reason he's saying that

 

[MarcusPitt]

Palm is now saying verbatim what Mandel says above. But...ready for this...Palm says Syracuse would travel better than ALL three other teams listed above and thats why he has us in.

"Palm grouped Syracuse with Washington State, Oregon State and Pittsburgh as teams fighting for the final available bowl spots. He said he rates the Syracuse fanbase's willingness to travel as slightly above the other three, the primary reason for SU's inclusion in his projections." -Chris Carlson

I agree. SU has traveled pretty well lately. The fan base is gaining more and more momentum too. Pittsburgh's fans have traveled very poorly the last few years. I know we'd sell more tickets than they would!

 

[Scooch]

Palm is now saying verbatim what Mandel says above. But...ready for this...Palm says Syracuse would travel better than ALL three other teams listed above and thats why he has us in.

"Palm grouped Syracuse with Washington State, Oregon State and Pittsburgh as teams fighting for the final available bowl spots. He said he rates the Syracuse fanbase's willingness to travel as slightly above the other three, the primary reason for SU's inclusion in his projections." -Chris Carlson

Amongst those 4 schools we may actually be the best traveling program. It's basically a "tallest midget" kind of thing.

I doubt WSU or OSU would have too many fans attend a bowl in the south/east. And Pitt travels worse than us, remarkably.

Like Tom says, put us somewhere in the northeast/mid-atlantic/Florida and we probably have enough alums/snow birds to bring a couple thousand fans even with a 6-6 team.

 

[rrlbees]

Don't know if it was mentioned but Phil Steele has us bowling now (I guess he didn't on Sunday). Has us in Beef O' Brady vs East Carolina.

He read my post.

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[mikekan14]

I thought this was a pretty good run down of the scenarios.
http://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...rojections-week-14-florida-state-clemson-duke

Out of the power conferences, this leaves the ACC (two more bowl teams than bowl tie-ins) and the Pac-12 (two more bowl teams than bowl tie-ins) looking to fill replacement slots. (Projects Rutgers to get bowl eligible and SMU not)

The following bowls are likely looking for replacement teams:
-- Beef 'O' Brady's (St. Petersburg) - American 6 vs. C-USA 4
-- Heart of Dallas - Big Ten 7 vs. Big 12 8
-- Little Caesars (Detroit) - Big Ten 8 vs. MAC 1
-- Independence (Shreveport) - SEC 10 vs. ACC 7
-- Poinsettia (San Diego) - MWC 2 vs. Army
-- Pinstripe (Bronx) - Big 12 7 vs. American 4
Notre Dame is a near lock to fill the Big 12's no. 7 slot in the Pinstripe Bowl and the Independence Bowl is not likely to be an all-ACC affair (which actually improves the ACC's chances of facing a Pac-12 replacement team in this game). The San Diego-based Poinsettia Bowl is also likely to take the other, more local Pac-12 replacement team. This leaves the two odd ACC programs out looking at the Beef 'O' Brady's, Heart of Dallas and Little Caesars Bowl as the only hope to landing in a bowl game.

Bowl Projections:
Florida State and Clemson land in the BCS. Miami (Peach), Virginia Tech (Russell Athletic) and Duke (Sun) round out the ACC's top four bowls. North Carolina lands in Charlotte while Georgia Tech -- with a rematch vs. Georgia now appearing unlikely -- grabs the Music City Bowl bid. The I-Bowl takes BC and pairs the Eagles with a replacement team from the Pac-12 (Washington State?). Maryland lands in Annapolis while Pitt (Pizza Bowl) and Syracuse (Beef Bowl) find games among the bowls needing to find replacement teams.

---

For destination purposes, I'm hoping for the Poinsettia. I used to live in SoCal and could use the excuse to go back. Plus, there's a huge alumni association in LA and OC.

 

[llandz]

We would get a ton of fans in San Diego. West coast full of SU now. One of the biggest alum bases. Tons of SU fans showed up for the USC game 2 years ago in LA.
Dallas also has a decent alum base. And with football being so good in Texas, maybe more football fans than other venues. Also an easy city to get to with the huge American hub there. And Southwest hub at Love Field.

 

[IHeartSUFball]

Really think heart of Texas bowl takes an acc team

 

[anomander]

I still don't understand why the ACC/Military would take Maryland? They don't even show up to their home games. Syracuse would travel well there, spend money on hotels/restaurants. Plus why would the ACC take care of Maryland before us?

 

[rrlbees]

I still don't understand why the ACC/Military would take Maryland? They don't even show up to their home games. Syracuse would travel well there, spend money on hotels/restaurants. Plus why would the ACC take care of Maryland before us?

Yep

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[orange79]

I still don't understand why the ACC/Military would take Maryland? They don't even show up to their home games. Syracuse would travel well there, spend money on hotels/restaurants. Plus why would the ACC take care of Maryland before us?

The only reason they might is that the league would get the payout - and then not give it to MD.