March 2 Lunardi

[sabach]

has us as the first of the "last four byes". In other words, there are seven teams in his bracket that he has us ahead of. Second Round against Kansas.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

[CorduroyG]

Palm still has us as a 9 so the unc loss didnt do any damage. Beat fsu and we're in.

 

[sabach]

Palm still has us as a 9 so the unc loss didnt do any damage. Beat fsu and we're in.

I think that is accurate. The issue is whether a loss to FSU and 1-1 in the ACCT is a given.

 

[CorduroyG]

I think that is accurate. The issue is whether a loss to FSU and 1-1 in the ACCT is a given.

Definitely not a given. I think we'd be in the play in round in that scenario. Very dicey though, could easily be out depending on what other teams do.

 

[sabach]

Definitely not a given. I think we'd be in the play in round in that scenario. Very dicey though, could easily be out depending on what other teams do.

I think our consensus is a win at FSU gives us a bye, a loss at FSU and 1-1 in ACCT gives us a play in. A Loss at FSU and two wins or more at ACCT gives us a bye. Finish 0-2 and we host an NIT game on the Tuesday following Selection Sunday.

 

[KaiserUEO]

I think our consensus is a win at FSU gives us a bye, a loss at FSU and 1-1 in ACCT gives us a play in. A Loss at FSU and two wins or more at ACCT gives us a bye. Finish 0-2 and we host an NIT game on the Tuesday following Selection Sunday.

you missed a win @ fla st and a loss on wed of ACCT.

I think that also puts us in the play in or out.

need to win 2 to undo Hops damage.

 

[2-3zone]

Pearl31 already has us locked into the tourney

 

[sabach]

you missed a win @ fla st and a loss on wed of ACCT.

I think that also puts us in the play in or out.

need to win 2 to undo Hops damage.

That was my first sentence. I believe a win at FSU, regardless of what we do in the ACCT, even if we go 0-1 would get us a bye. That would put our regular season ACC mark at 10-8. I believe the committee will see that win as bigger than a first round ACCT win against VPI.

 

[andyw715]

has us as the first of the "last four byes". In other words, there are seven teams in his bracket that he has us ahead of. Second Round against Kansas.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I like that bracket...Kansas? meh...then beat up on Duke...easy peasey.

 

[CorduroyG]

you missed a win @ fla st and a loss on wed of ACCT.

I think that also puts us in the play in or out.

need to win 2 to undo Hops damage.

10-8 acc record gets us in, 9 or 10 seed

 

[pearl31]

I think our consensus is a win at FSU gives us a bye, a loss at FSU and 1-1 in ACCT gives us a play in. A Loss at FSU and two wins or more at ACCT gives us a bye. Finish 0-2 and we host an NIT game on the Tuesday following Selection Sunday.

not trying to be snarky or confrontational here, but not sure where you guys are getting these "needs" other than your own Syracuse-fan paranoia.

 

[pearl31]

Pearl31 already has us locked into the tourney

Yep, right now we are. And with one more win we will be.

 

[sabach]

Yep, right now we are. And with one more win we will be.

Isn't that what my post said as well? I think if we lose Saturday and win only one game in the ACCT, we will be one of the last four in. That is not paranoia. I think that is a reasonable thought. If we win on Sat. or lose Sat. and get two wins in the ACCT, we get a bye. If we do not win another game, we get NIT.

 

[pearl31]

Isn't that what my post said as well? I think if we lose Saturday and win only one game in the ACCT, we will be one of the last four in. That is not paranoia. I think that is a reasonable thought. If we win on Sat. or lose Sat. and get two wins in the ACCT, we get a bye. If we do not win another game, we get NIT.

OK, we're agreeing for the most part. But I will maintain that with one more win we will be safely enough in (barring conf tourney wackiness) so as not to be in one of the play-in games.

 

[sabach]

OK, we're agreeing for the most part. But I will maintain that with one more win we will be safely enough in (barring conf tourney wackiness) so as not to be in one of the play-in games.

I hope you are right. But our RPI is not going to be so great if we lose to FSU, beat VPI and then lose to UNC that a play in game is not out of the question.

 

[Chris02M]

We are probably in with just a win. Are resume is clearly better than bama,florida,Michigan,tulsa,st bonaventure,gonzaga and 2 are in right now for sure.cant tell who joe has as just out.

1 win-play in at worst.
2 wins- 8 or 9 seed
3 wins-7 seed
4 wins-5 or 6 seed
5 wins-4 seed

 

[pearl31]

We are probably in with just a win. Are resume is clearly better than bama,florida,Michigan,tulsa,st bonaventure,gonzaga and 2 are in right now for sure.cant tell who joe has as just out.

1 win-play in at worst.
2 wins- 8 or 9 seed
3 wins-7 seed
4 wins-5 or 6 seed
5 wins-4 seed

Agree with this

 

[jncuse]

We can now come up with projected resumes for the last 8 teams right now including conference tourney (and ours is based on losing to FSU and going 1-1 in ACC Tourney). It is based on teams winning / losing games they are supposed to, Copies of these resumes are pasted on by bubble watch page. Most resumes are poor, and even there are 2 bubble busters, projected resumes of 2 teams that are "in" today (Michigan and Tulsa) are clearly worse than ours.

Some of you can continue to speculate on how we are screwed if we lose at FSU but that is simply not true But at least come up with something other than a sarcastic comment. Who is going to push out from the last 4 out to steal seeds. If there are 2 bubble busters, how do we project to be worse than Michigan and Tulsa who are also in?

They don't choose teams based on purely RPI. Ours is not so high that we are largely dismissed because of it -- it's in the range that they will look at our full resume compared to others.

By the way our projected RPI is 60 (if we finish 1-2) . It is a tad higher than the other 8 last teams in. Also Providence at projected 61, is not even in the last 8 discussion (If you need any further proof that RPI does not kill you)

Here are the projected RPI's of the power conference teams that are out.
Florida 59 (14 losses)
Alabama 71
Stanford 75
Florida St 78
Ohio St 81
Georgia Tech 82
LSU 98

Those teams have to do serious work to get to 60 other than Florida. Beyond the games they are expected to win from here to the end of the season, they would need 2 other unpected wins.

 

[jncuse]

We are probably in with just a win. Are resume is clearly better than bama,florida,Michigan,tulsa,st bonaventure,gonzaga and 2 are in right now for sure.cant tell who joe has as just out.

1 win-play in at worst.
2 wins- 8 or 9 seed
3 wins-7 seed

I also agree with this

 

[MGP]

I also agree with this

jncuse - 0-2 where do you see us?

 

[CorduroyG]

jncuse - 0-2 where do you see us?

 

[Jake]

Well, this thread is sorta pointless. Because every scenario depends on what other bubble teams do as well.


Fun to speculate, but nothing is definite other than going on a three game win streak.

Even 0-2 can get us in depending on other results.

 

[KaiserUEO]

tell you what, if we somehow miss out on the big dance, then JB should go golfing and just let Hop deal with the nit.

itll be good for him and its his mess anyway.

 

[NYCorange]

The only other thing we have to remember is that every year, crap teams "steal" seeds--they win their conference tournament who otherwise wouldn't have gotten in. For example, Georgetown wins their conference tournament on 5 dubious traveling violations.

 

[TexanMark]

not trying to be snarky or confrontational here, but not sure where you guys are getting these "needs" other than your own Syracuse-fan paranoia.

It isn't paranoid... If it is real...we have been first team not invited too many times