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Message: [QUOTE="wfschrec, post: 1246732, member: 361"] I changed the query to tighten the model .. here is what I see: Since 1998 there have been 483 situations where a team was trailing by 10 or less with under 10 mins remaining with a 4th and 1-3 yards to go, ranging from their own 40 to the opponents endzone. Teams have punted only 48 times and that is in a two score ballgame! They converted their first downs in excess of 46% of the time. If you change that to 4th and 1 its 257 situations with only 23 punts and a conversion rate in excess of 52%. Buffalo themselves fell into that situation 6 times ... punted twice, threw once and ran three times. They converted 3 times and failed only once. Of those 6 only two happened on Marrone's watch .. both punts ... [/QUOTE]