May the Best Team Win | Syracusefan.com

May the Best Team Win

SWC75

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The question was asked: how often does the “best team” win the NCAA tournament? This was prompted by comparisons between our currently 28-1 #2 ranked Syracuse team #1 ranked Kentucky who has basically the same record at 26-1. We are wondering who will win if they play. But will they even play?

I decided to check the ESPN College Basketball Encyclopedia to see what I could find out about this. Obviously, this is a subjective determination: who are the best two teams. The first year there was any polling was 1949, Before that there is the retroactive Premo-Porretta Poll but that includes any post season results: I’m looking at the last poll before the NCAA tournament. I want to see who was ranked #1 and #2, did they meet in the tournament, what happened, who played for the title and where had those teams been ranked?

1949: Kentucky (29-1) was #1 and Oklahoma A&M, (State: 20-4) was #2
Those two teams met for the national title wand Kentucky won 46-36.

1950: Bradley (27-3) was #1, Ohio State (19-3) was #2.
CCNY, (17-5), who was unranked, beat both of them: the Buckeyes 56-55 in the “Elite 8”, (it was an 8 team tournament at the time, so that was the first round), then Bradley in the final 71-68. Both teams were later implicated in the famous point-shaving scandal.

1951: It was Kentucky (27-2) and Oklahoma A&M, (State 26-3) in the top two spots again. There were now two polls and the Wildcats were #1 according to the writers, the Cowboys according to the coaches. This time the Cowboys got waxed in the semis by Kansas State, (21-3, #4 in the writer‘s poll, #3 in the new coach‘s poll) 68-44, who then lost to the Wildcats in the final, 68-58. K-State had been ranked 4th.

1952: Kentucky, (28-2) was again #1 and Illinois (19-3) #2/ St. John’s, (22-3, #10/#9), beat both of them, Kentucky in the Elite 8, (there were now 16 teams in the tournament), 64-57 and the Illini 61-59 in the semis, before losing to Kansas, (21-2 #8/#3), 80-63 in the final.

1953: Indiana (19-3) was #1 and Washington (27-2) was #2
Washington went down hard in the semi finals to Kansas, (#6/#5) 16-5), 79-53 but the defending champs lost a nail-biter to the Hoosiers, 69-68 in the finals, repeating the result of the 1940 final.
1954: Kentucky was 25-0 and ranked #1 ahead of defending champ Indiana, (19-3) by the writers. The rankings were reversed by the coaches.

The Wildcats, due to a dispute with the NCAA, didn’t play in the tournament. Indiana lost to Notre Dame, 65-64 in the Sweet 16. LaSalle, (21-4, #12), won the title over unranked Bradley, who had gotten into the tournament with a 15-13 record.

1955: San Francisco (23-1) was #1, Kentucky (22-2) #2.
The Wildcats lost to Marquette in the Sweet 16. The Dons beat defending champ LaSalle, ((22-4 #3) 77-63 in the final.

1956: San Francisco (25-0) was again #1, North Carolina State (24-3) #2.
NC State lost in four overtimes to Canisius in the round of 32. The Dons beat Iowa, 17-5, #4), 83-71 in the final.

1957: North Carolina (27-0) was #1, Kansas (21-2) #2.
They met for the national title and the Tar heels won 54-53 in triple overtime.

1958: West Virginia, (26-1), with Jerry West was #1 and Cincinnati, (24-2) with Oscar Robertson was #2.
But the two superstars didn’t meet until the NBA. The Mountaineers got upset by Manhattan, 69-64, in the first round and Cincinnati lost in OT to Kansas State in the Sweet 16. Kentucky, (19-6, #9/#14) beat Seattle, (and Elgin Baylor 19-5, #18/#19) in the final, 84-72.

1959: Kansas State (24-1) was #1, Kentucky (23-2), #2.
This time West and Robertson made it to Final Four but California, playing tough defense, spoiled the party, beating the Bearcats 64-58 in the semis and the Mountaineers 71-70 in the final. K-State had lost to Cincy, 85-75 in the Elite 8 while Kentucky went down to Louisville, 61-76 in the Sweet 16. That must have hurt.

1960: Cincinnati and California were both 24-1 and ranked #1 and #2. The writers had Cincinnati #1 and the coaches had California #1.
The Bearcats again lost to the Bears in the semis, 77-69 but the Bears had a surprise in store for them: a young Ohio State squad led by Jerry Lucas and John Havlichek buried them 77-55 in the finals. The Buckeyes had been 21-3 and #3.

1961: #1 Ohio State was 23-0 and #2 Cincinnati 23-3.
They met for the national title and the Bearcats won in overtime, 70-65.

1962: This time Ohio State was 24-1 and Cincinnati 24-2 with the same #1-#2 rankings and the same result, although the Bearcats didn’t need over time this time, 71-59.

1963: This time Cincinnati was #1 at 23-1 and Duke #2 at 23-2.
The Blue Devils lost to Loyola of Chicago, 75-94 in the national semis and the Bearcats did the same, 58-60 in overtime in the final. The Ramblers had been #33/#4 at 24-2.

1964: UCLA was #1 at 26-0 and Michigan #2 at 20-4.
The Bruins beat Duke, who had been #3 at 23-4, 98-83 in the final. The Blue Devils had beaten Michigan 91-80 in the semis.

1965: Michigan was #1 at 21-2 and defending champ UCLA #2 at 24-2. Go figure.
Especially since the Bruins took care of the Wolverines, 91-80 in the finals.

1966: Kentucky was #1 at 23-1 and Duke #2 at 23-3.
You’ve seen the movie. The Wildcats beat the Blue Devils in the semis, 83-79 before their all-white team lost to the all-white Texas Western, (now UTEP) team, 65-72 in the finals. The Miners had been #3 at 23-1.

1967: Lew Alcindor, (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) was 26-0 and #1. Everybody else was #2, although Louisville at 23-3 formally occupied that position. The Cardinals lost to SMU 81-83 in the Sweet 16. Dayton, who had been unranked at 21-5, was the sacrificial lamb in the finals, 79-64.

1968: Houston had beaten the Bruins 71-69 before 52,693 fans in the Astrodome in first nationally important regular season college basketball game, was #1 at 29-0 while UCLA was #2 at 25-1. The Bruin extracted a terrible revenge, beating the Cougars 101-69 in the national semi-finals. They were ahead by 44 points at one juncture. They then beat north Carolina 78-55 in the finals, the biggest combined margin in history. UNC had been 25-3 and #4.

1969: The Bruins were #1 at 25-1 and UNC #2 at 25-3.
The Tar Heels went down hard to Purdue in the semis, 65-92. The Bruins then took care of the Boilermakers 92-72 in the finals. Purdue had been #7 at 20-4.

1970: Kentucky was 25-1 and #1, UCLA 24-2 and #2.
The Wildcats lost to Jacksonville, 100-106 in the Elite 8. UCLA beat the Dolphins 80-69 in the final. Jacksonville had been 24-1 and #4. Whatever happened to them?

1971: UCLA was #1 at 25-1, ahead of two 27-0 teams, #2 Marquette and #3 Pennsylvania. Marquette was upset by Ohio State 59-60 in the Sweet 16. In an amazing game, Penn lost to Villanova, who they had beaten during the regular season, by an incredible 47-90. Nova had the honor of losing to UCLA in the finals, 62-68. They had been 24-6 and #19, #17 before the tournament.

1972: The Walton Gang was 26-0 and #1. UNC was 23-4 and #2.
UNC lost to Florida State 75-79 in the semis. UCLA then beat the ’Noles 81-76 for the title. State had been 24-5 and #10.

1973: UCLA and NC State were both unbeaten at 26 and 27 and 0, respectively. But the Wolfpack was on probation. The Bruins beat Memphis (State) 87-66 thanks to Bill Walton’s incredible 21 for 22 performance, (the one miss was blocked.). Memphis had been 21-5 and #12/11.

1974: NC State was #1 at 26-1 and UCLA #2 at 23-3.
The Wolfpack avenged a 66-84 regular season defeat with an 80-77 double overtime thriller in the national semi-finals. They then beat Marquette 76-64 in the final. The Warriors, (Golden Eagles) had been 23-4, (#7/5).

1975: Indiana was 29-0 and UCLA #2 at 24-3
Scott May broke his arm and Kentucky beat the Hoosiers 92-90 in the Elite 8. The Bruins beat the Wildcats for John Wooden’s final title, 92-85. The Wildcats had been #5 at 23-4.

1976: Indiana was #1 at 27-0 while Marquette was #2 at 26-1.
Bobby Knight’s team went all the way this time, beating Big Ten rival Michigan 86-68 in the final. The Wolverines had been #9 at 21-6. They’d already taken care of the Warriors, 65-56 in the Elite 8.

1977: Michigan was #1 at 24-3 and UCLA #2 at 23-4.
Neither made it to the Final. The Bruins went down to Idaho State 75-76 in the Sweet 16 while the Wolverines lost to UNC Charlotte in the Elite 8. Marquette, who had been #7 at 20-7, beat #5 North Carolina, (who had been 24-4), 67-59 in the final.

1978: Kentucky was #1 at 25-2, UCLA #2 at 24-2.
The Bruins fell to Arkansas, 70-74 in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats beat Duke, who had been #7 at 23-6, 94-88 in the final.

1979: Indiana State was #1 at 29-0, UCLA #2 at 23-4.
The Bruins lost to DePaul, 91-95 in the Elite 8. Michigan State, who had been only 21-6 but ranked #4, beat the Sycamores 75-64 in the famous Magic Johnson-Larry Bird final.

1980: DePaul was #1 at 26-1, Louisville #2/#4 at 28-3. LSU was #3/#2.
UCLA had been 17-9 and unranked but they upset DePaul 77-71 in the Sweet 16 and won their way to the title game where they lost to Cardinals, 54-59. The Cardinals had defeated LSU 86-66 in the Elite 8.

1981: DePaul was again #1 at 27-1 and Oregon State was #2 at 27-1.
Both went down in the Sweet 16 by almost the same score, DePaul by 48-49 to St. Joseph’s, Oregon State by 48-50 to Kansas State. Indiana, who had been #9/7 at 21-9, beat North Carolina, who had been #6 at 25-7, in the final, 63-50.

1982: North Carolina was #1 at 27-2. DePaul was again 26-1 but ranked #2 this time.
Boston College beat DePaul 82-75 in the Sweet 16. The Blue Demons had a three year regular season record of 79-3 and lost in the Sweet 16 three times in a row. The Tar Heels beat Georgetown who had been 26-6 and #6/7 in the finals, 63-62 on a Michael Jordan jump shot.

1983: Phi Slamma Jamma was #1 at 27-2 and the Doctors of Dunk were #2 at 29-3. They met in the national semi finals and Houston won 94-81. NC State who had been unranked at 20-10, then dunked the Cougars in the final, 54-52.

1984: North Carolina was #1 at 27-2 and Georgetown #2 at 29-3.
Indiana upset the Heels 72-68 in the Sweet 16. The Hoyas beat Houston who had been #5 at 28-4 in the final, 84-75.

1985: Georgetown was #1 at 30-2 and Michigan #2 at 25-3.
This was the Big East’s big year as Villanova beat Michigan in second round, 59-55 and went on to join Georgetown and St. John’s in the Final Four. Boston College lost to Memphis State on a buzzer shot, 57-59 or it might have been an All-Big East Final Four. The Wildcats shot 79% to nip the Hoyas, 66-64 in the Final. They’d been 19-10 and unranked when the tournament began.

1986: Duke was 32-2 and ranked #1 while Kansas was 31-3 and #2.
They met in the semi-finals and Duke won 71-67. But Louisville, who had been 26-7 and #7, beat the Blue Devils 72-69 in the final as freshman “Never Nervous Pervis” Ellison, (who had made 68.2% of his free throws that year), sealed it with a couple of foul shots- and no teammates on the line next to him.

1987: UNLV was 33-1 and #1. North Carolina was 29-3 and #2/#3. Indiana was #3/#2 at 24-4.
Syracuse freshman Derrick Coleman, who had who had hit 68.6% of his free throws stood at the line with no teammates to keep him company and missed the front end of a one and one. Indiana got the rebound and set up for a final shot to win it, which Keith Smart did, 74-73. The Orange had beaten UNC 79-75 in the Eastern Regional Finals. The Hoosiers had proven they could run in being UNLV 97-93 in the national semis.

1988: Temple was #1 at 29-1. Arizona was #2 at 31-2.
The Owls lost to Duke, 53-63 in the Elite 8. The Wildcats lost to Oklahoma in the national semis, 78-86. Kansas, who had been 21-11 and unranked beat the Sooners, who had been 30-3 and ranked #4/3, 83-79 in the final.

1989: Arizona was #1 at 27-3 and Georgetown #2 at 28-4.
The Hoyas almost became the first #1 seed to lose to a #16 seed, squeaking by 50-49 and thus save Dick Vitale a long walk from Connecticut to New Jersey in the first round. But they couldn’t get past Duke in the Elite 8. Zona lost to UNLV in the Sweet 16. In the end, Michigan, who had been 24-7 and #10 and Seton Hall, 26-6 and #11, were battling it out in overtime for the national championship. Rumeal Robinson was sent to the line with a touch foul and won it, 80-79.

1990: Oklahoma 26-4 was #1 and UNLV 29-5 was #2
The Sooners lost to UNC in the second round, 77-79. The Rebels crushed Duke, who had been 24-8 and #15, 103-73 in the most one-sided final in history.

1991: UNLV was 30-0 and #1. Arkansas was 31-3 and #2.
The Razorbacks were upset by Kansas 81-93 in the Elite 8. Duke who had been 26-7 and #6 got revenge on UNLV in the national semi-finals 79-77. No team has entered the Final Four undefeated since. The Blue Devils then beat Kansas, who had been 22-7 and #12, in the final, 72-65 for their first national championship.

1992: Duke was 28-2 and #1. Kansas was 26-4 and #2.
After opening with a 33 point win over Howard, the Jayhawks lost to UTEP, 60-66 in the second round. Duke repeated, beating Michigan’s “Fab Five”, 71-51 in the final. The Wolverines had been 20-8 and #16.

1993: Indiana was #1 at 28-3. Kentucky 26-3 and #2/#3. UNC was 28-4 and #4/#2.
The Hoosiers lost to Kansas 77-83 in the Elite 8. The Wildcats lost to the Fab Five in the Final Four, (say that three times, real quick), 78-81 in OT. North Carolina beat Michigan, who had been 26-4, #3/#4, 77-71 in the final, thanks to Chris Weber’s gaffe of calling a time-out he didn’t have.

1994: North Carolina was #1/#2 despite a 27-6 record. Arkansas was #2/#1 at 25-3.
The Tar Heels were upset by Boston College 72-75 in the second round. The Razorbacks beat Duke, who had been #6 (23-5), 76-72 for the title.

1995: UCLA was #1 at 25-2. Kentucky was #2 at 25-4.
North Carolina beat the Wildcats 74-61 in the Elite 8, then lost to Arkansas, 68-75 in the national semi-finals. The Bruins denied the Razorbacks, who had been 27-6 and #6, a second straight title, 89-78. Arkansas had returned all five starters from their championship team of the previous year.

1996: Massachusetts was 31-1 and #1. Kentucky was 28-2 and #2.
They met in the national semi-finals and Kentucky won, 81-74. The Wildcats then beat Syracuse who had been 24-8 and # and #15/14 for the title, 76-67.

1997: Kansas was 32-1 and #1. Utah was 26-3 and #2.
The Utes lost to Kentucky 59-72 in the Elite 8. Those Wildcats had been 30-4 and #5/4. Arizona, who had been 19-9 and #15/13, knocked off Kansas 85-82 in the Sweet 16 and went on to beat Kentucky in an all Wildcat final, 84-79 in overtime for the national title.

1998: North Carolina was 30-3 and #1. Kansas was 34-3 and #2.
The Jayhawks went down in the second round to Rhode Island, 75-80. Utah, who had been 25-3 and #7 beat UNC 65-59 in the national semi-finals. Kentucky, who had been 29-4 and #6 came from behind to beat Utah, 78-69 for their seventh title.

1999: Duke was 32-1 and #1. Michigan State was 29-4 and #2.
They met in the semi-finals and Duke won 68-62. Connecticut had been 28-2 and #3. The beat Duke 77-74 for their first title.

2000: Duke was again #1 at 27-4 and Michigan State was again #2 at 26-7.
Duke lost to Florida, (24-7, #13/11), 78-87 in the Sweet 16. The Spartans beat the Gators 89-76 in the final.

2001: Duke was #1 at 29-4. Stanford was #2 at 28-2.
Stanford lost to Maryland 73-87 win the Elite 8. Duke the beat the Terps 95-84 and Arizona 82-72 in the finals. The Wildcats had been 23-7 and #5/4.

2002: Duke was #1 for the fourth year in a row at 29-3. Kansas had the same record and was #2. Indiana beat the Blue Devils 74-73 in the Sweet 16. The Jayhawks lost to Maryland 88-97 in the national semi-finals. The Terps then beat the Hoosiers for the title, 64-52. They had been 26-4, #4 while Indian was 20-12 and unranked.

2003: Kentucky was #1 at 29-3 while Arizona was #2 at 25-3.
Marquette handled the Wildcats 83-69 in the Elite 8, then got handled by Kansas 61-94 in the Final Four. Kansas had been 25-7 and #6. They took care of Arizona 78-75 in the Elite 8. But Syracuse had the answers in the final, 81-78. The Orange had been 24-5 and #13/13.

2004: Stanford was 29-1 and #1. Kentucky was 26-4 and #2/#4. Gonzaga was 27-2 and #3/#2
The Cardinal got it’s wings clipped in the second round by Alabama, 67-70. The same thing happened to he Wildcats at the hands of UAB, 75-76. Connecticut, who had been 27-6 and #7 beat Georgia Tech, who had been 23-9 and #14/15, for the title 82-73. The Zags went down hard to Nevada, 72-91 in the second round.

2005: Illinois was 32-1 and #1. North Carolina was 27-4 and #2/#3. Duke was 25-5 and #3/#2
For the first time in 40 years the #1 and #2 teams going into the tournament met in the final. The Tar Heels won 75-70. Duke lost to Michigan State 68-78 in the Sweet 16.

2006: Duke was #1 at 30-3. Connecticut was #2 at 27-3.
LSU beat Duke 62-54 in the Sweet 16 while Connecticut lost to George Mason, of all people, in the Elite 8, 84-86 in overtime. Florida, who had been 27-6 and #11/10, beat UCLA who had the same record and was #7/8 in the final, 73-57.

2007: Ohio State was #1 at 30-3. Kansas was #2 at 30-4.
Defending champion Florida was 29-5 and #3. Kansas lost to UCLA 55-68 in the Elite 8. Florida beat the Bruins again, this time in the semis, 76-66 and then the Buckeyes in the final, 84-75. They’d won both the football and basketball titles from the same school I the same school year.

2008: North Carolina was #1 at 32-2. Memphis was #2/#3 at 33-1. UCLA was #3/#2 at 31-3.
This was the only year in which all the #1 seeds made it to Final Four. The result was two blow outs in the semis and a great final. Memphis took care of UCLA 78-63 but UNC fell behind 12-40 to Kansas and never recovered, losing 66-84. The Jayhawks had been 31-3 and ranked #4. The beat Memphis in overtime in the final, 75-68.

2009: Louisville was, (oddly), #1 at 28-5. North Carolina was #2/#3 at 28-4. Memphis was #3/#2 at 31-3
People remember the 2005 and 2009 UNC teams as two of the best ever but neither was #1 going into the tournament. Michigan State handled Louisville 64-52 in the Sweet 16 but couldn’t handle the Tar Heels in the Final, 72-89. The Spartans had been 26-6 and #8/7. Memphis lost to Missouri 91-102 in the Sweet 16.

2010: Kansas and Kentucky were both 29-2 and ranked #1-2
Syracuse was #3 at 28-3 while Duke was #4 at 27-5. West Virginia beat Kentucky in the Eastern Regional Final at the Carrier Dome, 73-66. Kansas went down to Northern Iowa 67-69 in the second round. SU lost to Butler 59-63 in the Sweet 16. The Bulldogs had been 27-4 and #12. Duke beat them in the Final when Gordon Heyward’s half-court shot rimmed out, 61-59.

2011: Ohio State was #1 at 31-2. Kansas was #2 at 32-2.
Kentucky was 25-8 and #11. Connecticut was 26-9 at #9. Butler was 23-9. Virginia Commonweath was 23-11. They were both unranked. That turned out to be your Final Four, America! VCU had actually emerged from one of the four play-in games before the tournament got down to business. They wound up taking down Kansas 71-61 in a regional final in a game that wasn’t that close. Kentucky had beaten Ohio State 62-60 in the Sweet 16. But Connecticut, who had been the 9th place team in the 16 team Big East, beat Butler 53-41 in a dismal final.
 
Here is a compilation of the numbers. I decided there should be one #1 team each year. When there was a dispute I went with the writer’s polls simply because it started earlier and has a little more prestige, (since coaches often blow off the rankings for a staffer to do.) The other teams are all #2’s Excluded are the 1953 Kentucky team and the 1973 North Carolina State team, who didn’t play in the tournament due to a dispute with the NCAA and probation, respectively.

#1 teams have won the national championship 19 times. They’ve lost in the title game 11 times. They’ve lost in the semi-finals 7 times. They’ve lost in the Elite 8 nine times, the Sweet 16 ten times and the Round of 32 five times. No #1 or #2 ranked team has ever lost in the round of 64. They’ve made the Final four 49% of the time and the final game 31% of the time.

#2 teams have won the national championship 17 times. They’ve lost in the title game 4 times. They’ve lost in the semi-finals 15 times. They’ve lost in the Elite 8 fourteen times, the Sweet 16 twelve times and the Round of 32 six times. They’ve made the Final Four 31% of the time and the Final game 25% of the time. #1 teams do a better job of getting to the Final Four but #2 teams win the whole thing a higher percentage of the time.

But how many times have the #1 and #2 teams actually faced each other? Unsurprisingly they’ve never met until the Final Four. They’ve met in the national semi-finals 9 times:

1960:n#2/#1 California beat #1/#2 Cincinnati 77-69
1966: #1 Kentucky beat #2 Duke 83-79
1968: #2 UCLA beat #1 Houston 101-69
1974: #1 North Carolina State beat #2 UCLA 80-77 in overtime.
1983: #1 Houston beat #2 Louisville 94-81
1986: #1 Duke beat #2 Kansas 71-67
1987: #3/#2 Indiana beat #1 UNLV 97-93
1996: #2 Kentucky beat #1 Massachusetts 81-74
1999: #1 Duke beat #2 Michigan State 68-62

They’ve met in the Finals six times:

1949: #1 Kentucky beat #2 Oklahoma A&M (State) 46-36
1956: #1 North Carolina beat #2 Kansas 54-53 in three overtimes
1961: #2 Cincinnati beat #1 Ohio State 70-65 in overtime
1962: #2 Cincinnati beat #1 Ohio State 71-59
1965: #2 UCLA beat #1 Michigan 91-80
2005: #2 North Carolina beat #1 Illinois 75-70

What does it all mean? The thing that jumps out at me is that the top two teams have met for the national championship only once in 46 years. Part of the reason is that the seeding committee is not the same group of people that do the rankings. They often see things differently, which is why the top two teams have met in the semi-finals 9 times, 8 of them in those 46 years. The other big reason is that the tournament has grown and more game shave to be won to reach the Final Four and the Finals. To my mind, there’s too many teams. The tournament should be about the best teams in the country playing each other to determine who the best of the best is. But now it’s amore all-inclusive event that brings the nation together because every place seems to have a school close to them in it. There’s a lot of Cinderella and David vs. Goliath Stories but I actually think they detract from the real purpose of the tournament. I note that Syracuse is currently #1 in RPI, Michigan State #2, Duke #3 and Kentucky #4, so it’s possible we could be in the same half of the bracket as the Wildcats. Based on the historical record we’ve got a much better chance of meeting Kentucky in the national semi-finals than the national finals.

Oh, and the #1’s are 7-8 vs. the #2’s.


 
 
 
 
 
That post is suitable for being published in some nationally syndicated manner. Outstanding! SWC, you never cease to amaze me with the great posts you come out with. I salute you!
 
Great job compiling the information! It backs up what I have always said/thought: most times it is about matchups, luck and getting hot at the right time.
 
SWC, you have a much better tan than I would expect you to have after spending all last summer doing research! :)
 
Great job, SWC. And, boy, you have too much free time!

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S 4G using Tapatalk.
 
Great job, SWC. And, boy, you have too much free time!

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S 4G using Tapatalk.

I 'm just curoius. And I have just the right amount of free time. ;)
 

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