Miami opens -2 over NC State..

[Lawrinson14]

Jay Williams is a human cliche machine. All he does is spout generic analyses such as:

"They have to rebound better to win."
"Team X lives and dies by the 3"
"Team X needs to turn up their defensive intensity".

Dude might have been a great player, but he is clueless as an analyst.

 

[Frozen]

Jay Williams is a human cliche machine. All he does is spout generic analyses such as:

"They have to rebound better to win."
"Team X lives and dies by the 3"
"Team X needs to turn up their defensive intensity".

Dude might have been a great player, but he is clueless as an analyst.

In the same vein:

"They're on a mission."

"He gets it done." -- Digger

"He passes the ball to...what's his name?" - Tom Brennan

 

[Madbiker]

Miami plays zone and if Cooney isn't hitting any shots we will be in big trouble. We had lots of trouble scoring inside against Miami ans that was when Cooney was shooting better than he is now. You're kidding if you think Duke fans will root against State. Duke fans will hold their noses and root for State against us. Both Duke and UNC want Cuse out.

 

[RichmondCuse]

Oddsmakers have one goal, to make money. The easiest way would be to have about the same amount if money bet on each side. They never want to be caught on one side. When they set a line at -7, that's not who they think will win and by how much. It's the line they think will bring equal money on both sides, and they will adjust accordingly. When KP has a team 7 pts better, his formula thinks that team will win by 7.

Of course this is the goal of the Vegas lines (for the most part), but how do you think they set an initial line? They aren't just throwing darts and then adjusting based on where the money comes in. They have advanced models just like kenpom uses, the difference being theirs needs to incorporate where public money will come in, where clearly kenpom would not. It isn't just a coincidence that kenpom so often lines up within 1 or 2 points of the Vegas lines.

 

[BuffOrange]

Ya line movement is sorta overrated. Sometimes you'll see late movement from +2 to -1 as happened when the sharps pounded the Bills vs the Dolphins last year. But while it's 3pts those aren't really important #'s anyway. You'll rarely see the line move off 3 in the nfl if that's where it opens. Even if they get some big bets on the favorite, for all they know it's a smokescreen by the sharps who want to pound the hell out of the underdog +3.5...so vegas will just take their chances w/ the dog +3.