Mock NBA Draft by Chris Mannix CNNSI has Ennis projected to go to

[djcon57]

Not that I particularly care to go back and do this, but in case I am bored later, how many years would be sufficient for the data collection for you to be satisfied?

Since 1 and done was implemented...It's not close to 20/80, it's more 50/50. As in, a better percentage than the successes of 2nd round SRs.

 

[Alsacs]

BTW... before you do your research..here's some more names from the last couple of years:
Lance Stephenson
DeAndre Jordan

Carlos Boozer, Gilbert Arenas and Rashard Lewis were 2nd round picks who have all made over 120 million dollars in the NBA.

Arenas and Lewis are top of the top 5 paid players in the NBA both make more than Lebron James this season.

 

[Knicks411]

orth it.

If you are a top 10 guy, people assume you are going to get that 2nd contract based on draft status alone, if nothing else. Below that, and you have to prove something to the big dogs in the league. If staying an extra year gets you the maturity/work ethic, game development/whatever else is necessary to make that happen, it's worth it.

I could be wrong, but I believe that is what Briancuse is saying. Bet on yourself for one more year, in school that you will improve and make it to the next contract, even if you end up going 18th instead of 12th the next year.

But I think the other point is that it isn't a given that going back to school for the extra year does that.
Kevin Pelton did a piece on ESPN insider a few weeks back; from the sample he looked at, the highly rated freshmen who went pro after their first year did developed better than the ones who came back. I've linked it before, it's an insider article, but here it is

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10588150/nba-why-nba-develops-players-better-college

 

[Briancuse]

I mean dude you are so wrong on this one its funny. If Ennis/Grant return they have to play within the Syracuse system and maybe the stuff they need to improve doesn't get as much as it should because once they come back JB's system is what they will have to follow.

I don't think you realize how NBA contracts work. If Ennis/Grant go to the NBA and aren't picked in the top 5 the gap between salaries in the rest of the first round picks isn't high. In the NBA you make your money on your 2nd contract. If you are younger when you are eligible for your 2nd contract teams will pay more unless you are a finished product. Staying at Syracuse or college for any player who will be a first round pick comes down to the whether they enjoy the college lifestyle or want to get paid to develop. Not many players are finished products for the NBA, but if they have a choice to get paid in the NBA or play for free in college its not shocking most choose to leave early.

If I could have taken the bar after 1 year of law school and I could declare early your damn right I would have done it. Now the those last 2 years of law school allowed to have a little more time as a kid and have a good time, but I would have left early if I could have. I don't blame anybody who leaves to get paid they owe Syracuse NOTHING but leaving the school in decent academic standing.

First of all how can you say I am wrong when the draft hasn't even happened yet?

Do you think nba teams are just going to accommodate their systems just for Ennis and Grant. If Grant goes to the thunder, will Scott Brooks say the hell with Durant and Westbbrook, lets run the offense through Grant.

It is so easy to take the opinion that they should take the easy money now, and coming back to school is a risk, because we are never going to know what would have happened if they came back for a year.

 

[Libero2]

First of all how can you say I am wrong when the draft hasn't even happened yet?

Do you think nba teams are just going to accommodate their systems just for Ennis and Grant. If Grant goes to the thunder, will Scott Brooks say the hell with Durant and Westbbrook, lets run the offense through Grant.

It is so easy to take the opinion that they should take the easy money now, and coming back to school is a risk, because we are never going to know what would have happened if they came back for a year.

I agree with this. Although to devil's advocate the bolded... You can make that argument either way. If they come back, you never know what would happen if they jumped early and vice-versa

 

[Alsacs]

First of all how can you say I am wrong when the draft hasn't even happened yet?

Do you think nba teams are just going to accommodate their systems just for Ennis and Grant. If Grant goes to the thunder, will Scott Brooks say the hell with Durant and Westbbrook, lets run the offense through Grant.

It is so easy to take the opinion that they should take the easy money now, and coming back to school is a risk, because we are never going to know what would have happened if they came back for a year.

So you don't believe Ennis and Grant will be first round picks? The difference between 10th and 30th is 3 million dollars over 3 years that isn't a lot if you can get to your FA earlier but leaving early. The NBA is all about getting to your 2nd contract
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

I trust professional coaching over collegiate coaching every day of the week. JB is a good coach, but his system isn't played in the NBA. Your reasoning for players returning comes off like its so personal and doesn't seem like anything more than you want the players on your team playing more college basketball. I would like having the talent as long as we can but they owe Syracuse NOTHING.

 

[Briancuse]

So you don't believe Ennis and Grant will be first round picks? The difference between 10th and 30th is 3 million dollars over 3 years that isn't a lot if you can get to your FA earlier but leaving early. The NBA is all about getting to your 2nd contract
Pick1st Year Salary2nd Year Salary3rd Year Option Salary4th Year Option:
Percentage Increased Over 3rd Year SalaryQualifying Offer:
Percentage Increase Over 4th Year Salary
1$4,436,900$4,636,600$4,836,30026.1%30.0%
2$3,969,800$4,148,500$4,327,10026.2%30.5%
3$3,565,000$3,725,400$3,885,80026.4%31.2%
4$3,214,200$3,358,800$3,503,50026.5%31.9%
5$2,910,600$3,041,600$3,172,60026.7%32.6%
6$2,643,600$2,762,600$2,881,50026.8%33.4%
7$2,413,300$2,521,900$2,630,50027.0%34.1%
8$2,210,900$2,310,400$2,409,80027.2%34.8%
9$2,032,300$2,123,800$2,215,20027.4%35.5%
10$1,930,600$2,017,500$2,104,30027.5%36.2%
11$1,834,100$1,916,700$1,999,20032.7%36.9%
12$1,742,400$1,820,800$1,899,20037.8%37.6%
13$1,655,300$1,729,800$1,804,30042.9%38.3%
14$1,572,600$1,643,300$1,714,10048.1%39.1%
15$1,493,800$1,561,000$1,628,30053.3%39.8%
16$1,419,200$1,483,100$1,546,90053.4%40.5%
17$1,348,200$1,408,900$1,469,50053.6%41.2%
18$1,280,800$1,338,400$1,396,10053.8%41.9%
19$1,223,200$1,278,200$1,333,20054.0%42.6%
20$1,174,200$1,227,000$1,279,90054.2%43.3%
21$1,127,200$1,177,900$1,228,70059.3%44.1%
22$1,082,200$1,130,900$1,179,60064.5%44.8%
23$1,038,900$1,085,700$1,132,40069.7%45.5%
24$997,300$1,042,200$1,087,10074.9%46.2%
25$957,500$1,000,600$1,043,70080.1%46.9%
26$925,700$967,400$1,009,00080.3%47.6%
27$899,000$939,500$979,90080.4%48.3%
28$893,500$933,700$973,90080.5%49.0%
29$887,000$926,900$966,80080.5%50.0%
30$880,600$920,200$959,80080.5%50.0%


I trust professional coaching over collegiate coaching every day of the week. JB is a good coach, but his system isn't played in the NBA. Your reasoning for players returning comes off like its so personal and doesn't seem like anything more than you ant the players on your tyream more. I would like having the talent as long as we can but they owe Syracuse NOTHING.

I do believe they are first round picks, but if your stance is that anyone who is a first round pick should go, that is sad.

You are 100 percent right about the 2nd contract being so important, which is why you need to be as ready for the league is possible when you come out.

 

[Briancuse]

They don't owe the fans anything, but they owe their coaches and teammates a great deal.

 

[Knicks411]

I do believe they are first round picks, but if your stance is that anyone who is a first round pick should go, that is sad.

You are 100 percent right about the 2nd contract being so important, which is why you need to be as ready for the league is possible when you come out.

Not totally sure i follow; your second contract is going to come 4 years after you hit the league.

They don't owe the fans anything, but they owe their coaches and teammates a great deal.

They owe their teammates/coaches their best effort in games and practice for as long as they're on the team. That's it.

 

[Briancuse]

Not totally sure i follow; your second contract is going to come 4 years after you hit the league.



They owe their teammates/coaches their best effort in games and practice for as long as they're on the team. That's it.

Right, by point is if you improve your skills you will be in a better position to make more money in that 2nd contract.

 

[RF2044]

...and made 11 million dollars. What am I missing again? Is the point of this debate that these players that leave early will never get better and be broke w/o a degree?

Here's one that left early...is getting better every year and made money.

Should add...McRoberts spent the majority of 2008 in the D League. I was told that was death.

Here's what you're missing: your point is not universal vis a vis all kids developing as a function of playing in the NBA against better competition. Some players develop in the NBA. Others do not. And the example you've chosen in this case is a curious one. 2nd round pick. Fairly non-descript career. He's made it, and defied the odds. Hip hip hooray for him. That doesn't make him the template to point to, as most second round picks have quite the opposite career arc.

It isn't that cut and dry, no matter how the myopic would like to pretend that it is.

 

[djcon57]

Here's what you're missing: your point is not universal. Some players develop in the NBA. Others do not.

It isn't that cut and dry, no matter how the myopic would like to pretend that it is.

RIGHT. That's exactly my point as well. Some players develop, some don't. It has nothing to do with staying another year in college.

 

[RF2044]

RIGHT. That's exactly my point as well. Some players develop, some don't. It has nothing to do with staying another year in college.

RIGHT. So quit trying to pretend that merely going is good, and has anything to do with carving out career longevity. Player either have the chops, or they don't. Or they have a unique skill that they are awesome at, or they don't. Or they are big and tall and thus team are willing to take a chance on them, or they aren't.

Both sides have it correct, frankly. There is better competition in the NBA, and coaching available at different times that in college. But once you make the jump, the dynamics of the professional season are quite different in the NBA than in college, and players don't necessarily even get practice time as consistently when they are in the course of the season. In some weeks where teams are on the road, they might only have shoot arounds and walk-throughs--which is quite different than what some believe, with unlimited practice time playing against the best in the world extravaganza that some incorrectly believe the NBA season to be. Especially if they don't get the same type of minutes that they would in college [even accounting for the longer NBA season], or get demoted to the D-League.

It is intellectually dishonest [or ignorant] to assert the former without acknowledging the latter.

 

[djcon57]

RIGHT. So quit trying to pretend that merely going is good, and has anything to do with carving out career longevity.

Literally never said this. Keep avoiding the 12 million made McRoberts.

 

[RF2044]

Literally never said this. Keep avoiding the 12 million made McRoberts.

I'm not avoiding anything. He is an outlier, as a second round pick who's beaten the odds and become a starter. Keep avoiding that.

 

[Alsacs]

I'm not avoiding anything. He is an outlier, as a second round pick who's beaten the odds and become a starter. Keep avoiding that.

McRoberts isn't an outlier. Carlos Boozer, Gilbert Arenas, Rashard Lewis are the outliers who have gone from 2nd round picks to making over 120 million each over the course of the careers. McRoberts is the example of a guy who was better leaving school early and getting professional coaching.

 

[RF2044]

McRoberts isn't an outlier. Carlos Boozer, Gilbert Arenas, Rashard Lewis are the outliers who have gone from 2nd round picks to making over 120 million each over the course of the careers. McRoberts is the example of a guy who was better leaving school early and getting professional coaching.

McRoberts SHOULDN'T be an outlier--even though he is--considering that he was a McD's all american and one of the top recruits in the nation, and yet he still somehow managed to be a second round pick.

And he wouldn't even be starting on any other team in the league. He's in a situation where his skill sit fit Charlotte's starting center needing extra room in the post to operate. Kudos to him, but let's not pretend that its anything more than that. On any other team, he's a deep reserve, which is about what you'd expect from a second round journeyman.

 

[Alsacs]

Their are plenty of 2nd round picks who become decent NBA players. Jimmy Butler of the Bulls, Dejuan Blair of the Mavericks, Monte Ellis of the Mavericks, Marc Gasol of the Grizzlies, Paul Mishap of the Hawks, Chandler Parsons of the Rockets, Goran Dragic of the Suns.

 

[Alsacs]

McRoberts SHOULDN'T be an outlier--even though he is--considering that he was a McD's all american and one of the top recruits in the nation, and yet he still somehow managed to be a second round pick.

And he wouldn't even be starting on any other team in the league. He's in a situation where his skill sit fit Charlotte's starting center needing extra room in the post to operate. Kudos to him, but let's not pretend that its anything more than that. On any other team, he's a deep reserve, which is about what you'd expect from a second round journeyman.

McRobert isn't an outlier he isn't even one of the top 10 players in the NBA who were 2nd round picks now.

 

[RF2044]

Their are plenty of 2nd round picks who become decent NBA players. Jimmy Butler of the Bulls, Dejuan Blair of the Mavericks, Monte Ellis of the Mavericks, Marc Gasol of the Grizzlies, Paul Mishap of the Hawks, Chandler Parsons of the Rockets, Goran Dragic of the Suns.

Sure there are. What kind of straw man BS is that? The funny thing about half of the list above, is that many of those guys: [1] are foreign guys who get drafted and stashed, because they aren't coming stateside right away, [2] are HS kids who get bad intel and came out early, only to go much later than expected [remember Rashard Lewis's tears in the green room?], or [3] role players who to their credit have made it. And sometimes on rare occasions--you are correct--2nd round picks end up being better than projected a la Boozer, Michael Redd, etc. and outperforming their draft position.

That makes them exceptions, not the rule.

 

[RF2044]

McRobert isn't an outlier he isn't even one of the top 10 players in the NBA who were 2nd round picks now.

He's an outlier in that he is a 2nd round pick who is a starter after being a complete journeyman for his first 6 years, and if that's the example that people are pointing to about whether it's best to stay or go. :bang:

 

[Alsacs]

He's an outlier in that he is a 2nd round pick who is a starter after being a complete journeyman for his first 6 years. :bang:

Off the top of my head I can think of Matt Barnes would fit your statement. He was a 2nd round pick in 2002 and was a journeyman forever before becoming a starter on the 2009 Eastern champ Orlando Magic.

 

[Knicks411]

I would say McRoberts is an example that you can indeed improve your game after you leave college. But I wouldn't point to him as something to strive for; I certainly wouldn't advise someone to go pro if they're projected to go in the second round unless they're about to flunk out of college or something. (In case anyone is curious; no one has asked me yet to advise them on their decision. Still waiting)

 

[RF2044]

Off the top of my head I can think of Matt Barnes would fit your statement. He was a 2nd round pick in 2002 and was a journeyman forever before becoming a starter on the 2009 Eastern champ Orlando Magic.

Outstanding--so every 5-6 years, one player who's drafted in the second round fits that criteria. Awesome percentage.

Think about what you are saying, and how this apparently relates to the point people are trying to make about Grant. McRoberts was a very highly rated recruit, went to Duke, had some pretty good numbers [better than Grant], went pro after his sophomore season... and got drafted in the second round.

He was a better collegiate player than grant, and 3 inches taller, with better numbers, and went in the second round. That shouldn't be the exemplar people are pointing toward as the model a player like Grant--who is a tweener and lacks refinement, and is quite a bit shorter than, by the way--should follow.

That's why he's an outlier, as an example.

 

[RF2044]

I would say McRoberts is an example that you can indeed improve your game after you leave college. But I wouldn't point to him as something to strive for; I certainly wouldn't advise someone to go pro if they're projected to go in the second round unless they're about to flunk out of college or something. (In case anyone is curious; no one has asked me yet to advise them on their decision. Still waiting)

Precisely.

He's an outlier because he got himself into a bad situation in terms of draft position, and beat the odds to carve out a fairly lucrative career.