more hunt vs long stats. what does it say about lester?

[Millhouse]

this isn't to say that injuries don't matter. they do. long is younger too so he's less far along, i get it.

the point of this is to back into some numbers and then we subjectively ask ourselves, do the injuries account for this difference

Against FBS, Nova screwed it up because Hunt didn't play enough

Hunt's total offense per game is 65% better than long
Hunt's combined TD to Int ratio is 110% better.
His passer rating is 6% better.
His adjusted yards per attempt (yards+20*tds-45*ints)/attempts is 23% better
His combined rushing and passing TD per game is 40% better.

Different QBs, different surrounding cast due to injuries, and different offensive coordinator.

Hunt wasn't very good to begin with so this big difference is unlikely to be solely because of injuries. Long gets sacked way more and that's not his fault but those sacks don't account for a 65% difference in total offense at QB.

If Long is really better than Hunt, I think that says something negative about Lester despite the injuries. If Lester is better than McDonald, I think that says something negative about Long. i don't see how you can go into next year with Long and Lester as QB and OC. One or the other, maybe, but not both.

 

[Fjoinkay]

Let's see T-Hunt work with Lester. Let's see T-Hunt play after sitting in the booth and seeing the game from a different perspective. Let's see any of the QBs work with a reasonably healthy offensive line. You might be biased to look for the negative.

 

[Upstate]

Hunt will come in and I'd imagine that SU will still do a bunch of zone read, minus all the bubble screens. I like Hunt's ability to run more than I like anything Long does, even his deep ball. Hunt has picked up some very tough 3rd down and longs with his legs, albeit with a healthy and strong OL. Once everyone's healthy -- maybe even next year -- I'd expect Lester and Hunt. We can call it the Terr-im Hester Experience.

 

[Millhouse]

Hunt will come in and I'd imagine that SU will still do a bunch of zone read, minus all the bubble screens. I like Hunt's ability to run more than I like anything Long does, even his deep ball. Hunt has picked up some very tough 3rd down and longs with his legs, albeit with a healthy and strong OL. Once everyone's healthy -- maybe even next year -- I'd expect Lester and Hunt. We can call it the Terr-im Hester Experience.

i think i'm with you until that last sentence. terr-ible

 

[xc84]

It says Lester really misses the O-line, Estime, and Broyld.

 

[Millhouse]

It says Lester really misses the O-line, Estime, and Broyld.

broyld missed plenty of time with hunt

estime caught 10 passes. i don't think he was ever that big a factor. ishmael's emergence more than offsets it. maybe it's a credit to lester/long that he gets him the ball.

first 4 FBS games, WR caught 73 balls for 889. last 4, 77 catches for 816.

the difference between hunt and long is fewer picks and more rushing yards. i don't think WR make that much of a difference. broyld is totally overrated. maybe estime does more with long since hunt throws it 5 feet over his head.

i think the line injuries have hurt the running backs performance greatly, maybe that buys Lester more time. i don't blame long for the sacks, i'm wondering about the throws he does get to make. just having a tough time swallowing (chip bot alert) lester + long

 

[Fjoinkay]

the difference between hunt and long is fewer picks and more rushing yards.

Long is a true freshman. The offensive line is battered. Lester's hands are full and tied. Long is doing well considering he is a true freshman and the offensive line is battered. Lester deserves some of the credit.

 

[Millhouse]

Long is a true freshman. The offensive line is battered. Lester's hands are full and tied. Long is doing well considering he is a true freshman and the offensive line is battered. Lester deserves some of the credit.

aj long is 120th in passer rating and 124th in adj yards/attempt

i wonder how bad his numbers would have to be before opinions switch to "even considering he's a true frosh and the offensive line is battered, long is not doing well"

the average yards for last 4 games of offense would be 112th in the country for the year

lester and long are getting credit for not being dead last because of injuries.

 

[xc84]

broyld missed plenty of time with hunt

estime caught 10 passes. i don't think he was ever that big a factor. ishmael's emergence more than offsets it. maybe it's a credit to lester/long that he gets him the ball.

first 4 FBS games, WR caught 73 balls for 889. last 4, 77 catches for 816.

the difference between hunt and long is fewer picks and more rushing yards. i don't think WR make that much of a difference. broyld is totally overrated. maybe estime does more with long since hunt throws it 5 feet over his head.

i think the line injuries have hurt the running backs performance greatly, maybe that buys Lester more time. i don't blame long for the sacks, i'm wondering about the throws he does get to make. just having a tough time swallowing (chip bot alert) lester + long

Broyld played 4 games with Hunt. While Broyld may be overrated (I'm not sure), that does not mean he is not one of the best receiving weapons we have. 10 pass receptions for Estime for this team with Hunt is not insignificant.

By the way, I am not saying one OC is better than the other. Both have not been that impressive but each has had different teams to lead and so it's not a 1:1 comparison.

And I think AJ would have been helped a lot with Broyld, Estime, and Hunt's healthier O-line. I think Estime was hampered a lot by his ankle injury all year and so Hunt never had a fully mobile Estime either.

 

[Millhouse]

Broyld played 4 games with Hunt. While Broyld may be overrated (I'm not sure), that does not mean he is not one of the best receiving weapons we have. 10 pass receptions for Estime for this team with Hunt is not insignificant.

By the way, I am not saying one OC is better than the other. Both have not been that impressive but each has had different teams to lead and so it's not a 1:1 comparison.

And I think AJ would have been helped a lot with Broyld, Estime, and Hunt's healthier O-line. I think Estime was hampered a lot by his ankle injury all year and so Hunt never had a fully mobile Estime either.

wasn't Broyld out for ND and Louisville? he didn't have any catches

against FBS, he has 6 catches with hunt and 4 catches with long

whoopdeedoo

 

[Fjoinkay]

aj long is 120th in passer rating and 124th in adj yards/attempt

i wonder how bad his numbers would have to be before opinions switch to "even considering he's a true frosh and the offensive line is battered, long is not doing well"

the average yards for last 4 games of offense would be 112th in the country for the year

lester and long are getting credit for not being dead last because of injuries.

Anyone can see that Long struggles at times. Just about everyone expects that because he is a true freshman. Lester was promoted into an extremely difficult situation that kept getting worse because of injuries. Numbers are never the whole story, and usually the story beyond the numbers carries much more meaning and often explains the numbers.

 

[Millhouse]

Anyone can see that Long struggles at times. Just about everyone expects that because he is a true freshman. Lester was promoted into an extremely difficult situation that kept getting worse because of injuries. Numbers are never the whole story, and usually the story beyond the numbers carries much more meaning and often explains the numbers.

first two sentences of thread

"this isn't to say that injuries don't matter. they do. long is younger too so he's less far along, i get it.

the point of this is to back into some numbers and then we subjectively ask ourselves, do the injuries account for this difference"

i never said the numbers are the whole story. I knew that's what people would come back with so that was the first thing i said. doesn't matter though, i guess

i would love to know how bad longs numbers would need to be for you to have more doubts because it seems like you think that true frosh + injuries + lester playbook means that numbers don't tell any of the story.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Is CMU skewing this? I feel like we've gotten pretty much equal production from them in terms of overall scoring. CMU was our "explosion" this season.

 

[Millhouse]

CMU and Wake are similar to me

CMU MD ND Louisville
Wake NC St FSU Clemson

pretty close to apples and apples

 

[Fjoinkay]

first two sentences of thread

"this isn't to say that injuries don't matter. they do. long is younger too so he's less far along, i get it.

the point of this is to back into some numbers and then we subjectively ask ourselves, do the injuries account for this difference"

i never said the numbers are the whole story. I knew that's what people would come back with so that was the first thing i said. doesn't matter though, i guess

i would love to know how bad longs numbers would need to be for you to have more doubts because it seems like you think that true frosh + injuries + lester playbook means that numbers don't tell any of the story.

Consistently weave the story with the numbers and it's easier to be objective. I've never seen the Lester playbook. Numbers matter, but these numbers are somewhat predictable based on the story which in this situation I feel has a lot of meaning but not all meaning.

 

[Millhouse]

Consistently weave the story with the numbers and it's easier to be objective. I've never seen the Lester playbook. Numbers matter, but these numbers are somewhat predictable based on the story which in this situation I feel has more meaning but not all meaning.

must be nice to be tim lester. gets the OC job at Syracuse by being a partial year incumbent with no worries about statistical performance

there's nothing he can do to lose a job he would've had no business getting thanks to the injuries

 

[Fjoinkay]

must be nice to be tim lester. gets the OC job at Syracuse by being a partial year incumbent with no worries about statistical performance

there's nothing he can do to lose a job he would've had no business getting thanks to the injuries

Something tells me he's worried about statistical performance.

 

[Millhouse]

Something tells me he's worried about statistical performance.

but not you

 

[xc84]

wasn't Broyld out for ND and Louisville? he didn't have any catches

against FBS, he has 6 catches with hunt and 4 catches with long

whoopdeedoo

You are right. I should have said Broyld played 3 games with Hunt and 1 with Long. 11 receptions from Hunt. 4 from AJ. Are you seriously now trying to revise things by not counting FCS games? That would actually hurt "your" stats. Please revise your stats and only include FBS games in your argument. I am interested to see how it comes out.

 

[Millhouse]

You are right. I should have said Broyld played 3 games with Hunt and 1 with Long. 11 receptions from Hunt. 4 from AJ. Are you seriously now trying to revise things by not counting FCS games? That would actually hurt "your" stats. Please revise your stats and only include FBS games in your argument. I am interested to see how it comes out.

He got kicked out of the game, that's why i didn't include it in per game stats. I already said why i didn't include it because I knew someone like you would give me a hard time about it. read.

unless you think ejections will be a pattern for him, it screws up the per game stats

let's try to be smarter

 

[xc84]

He got kicked out of the game, that's why i didn't include it in per game stats. I already said why i didn't include it because I knew someone like you would give me a hard time about it. read.

unless you think ejections will be a pattern for him, it screws up the per game stats

let's try to be smarter

I shall try.

 

[Fjoinkay]

but not you

Of course I'm concerned with stats, but stats are never the whole story. In this situation I think the story beyond the numbers helps to explain the numbers across this season. Given everything that has happened I think it is simply way too early to hold Lester responsible. I personally believe that given these circumstances Lester is performing as well as could be expected.

 

[Millhouse]

Of course I'm concerned with stats, but stats are never the whole story. In this situation I think the story beyond the numbers helps to explain the numbers across this season. Given everything that has happened I think it is simply way too early to hold Lester responsible. I personally believe that given these circumstances Lester is performing as well as could be expected.

if it's simply too early, then stats don't tell any of the story. which is fine but that's nice work if you can get it

 

[TheCusian]

You left out the part with Lester running a system that's not his own and that he hasn't even had a bye week to adjust anything.

I'm not sure that injuries to your Oline don't have a bigger effect on a young QB who is a better passer than a WR injuries to a guy who's strengths lie in his ability to scramble/run.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Something tells me he's worried about statistical performance.

Stats are for losers.

Too soon?