My Take

[SWC75]

I'm not sure this is really a 'debate'. I think we all agree that the offense has got to be more productive and expect it to be in future years but we've got to find a way to score more points now because we need to win 2 of 3 games against teams where 24, 25, 26, 27 points won;t be enough to win twice. The lack of defensive and special teams scores is a factor. So is the lack or a running game or explosive plays on offense. I think relying too much on two receivers and not using the middle of the field are factors, too.

The question is, what can we do to get more points to win a couple more games? Do we try to block or return kick more? Do we try to intercept more balls? Do we try to have a little more diversity and deception in the running game? Do we throw to the middle or the field more and get Butler and Pierce more involved? Do we give Pierre and the Johnsons a shot? DeVito? What is most likely to produce the results we need?

 

[SWC75]

...and I think that we will. Keep in mind that we've played a defensive gauntlet, against a bunch of teams with 5 star recruits.

I'm not saying that the games we have remaining won't be tough, but hopefully 465 yards becomes 500 yards or more against a non-Clemson / FSU / Miami.

But we've been moving the ball on those 5 star recruits. We just haven't been putting it into the end zone enough. It's not like the 5 star recruits are shutting our offense down. 465 should be enough to win most football games. And increasing it to 500 or more only helps if you get into the end zone.

 

[RF2044]

But we've been moving the ball on those 5 star recruits. We just haven't been putting it into the end zone enough. It's not like the 5 star recruits are shutting our offense down. 465 should be enough to win most football games. And increasing it to 500 or more only helps if you get into the end zone.

I don't think you understood my point. I'm not suggesting that 465 is good or bad -- I'm saying that it stands to reason that we might see more offensive production against teams without 5 star defensive talent. Case in point WF, which has been horrible against the pass this season.

Your last sentence is Captain Obvious territory, but I'll point out th the more we move the ball, the greater likelihood we end up with points--a cause that might ALSO be more favorable when not playing a collection of 5 star defensive talent. Which is why total yardage is a barometer that many point to as a sign of offensive success. Even in a situation like ours, where the scoring doesn't match the yardage [yet].

 

[sufandu]

You've been saying that for two seasons. That may account for why scoring went down from Shafer's last year to Dino's first but it hardly accounts for the discrepancy between yards and points. In 2015 we were 118th in the country in yards and 77th in points. Last year we were 42nd in yards and 90th in pints. This year we are 28th in yards and 61st in points.

Here is SU with the five teams ranked above them in yard and the five teams ranked below, along with the points per game they are scoring:

Arkansas State 465 yards 40 points
Mississippi 462 yards 32 points
U of Miami 461 yards 31.5 points
New Mexico State 461 yards 31 points
Navy 457 yards 32.5 points
Syracuse 456 yards 29 points
UCLA 450 yards 34 points
North Carolina State 447 yards 33 points
Gerogia 446 yards 37 points
Wake Forest 445 yards 32 points
Penn State 444 yards 38 points

The other ten teams in the group are averaging 454 yards and 34 points per game.

Maybe it shows we can scheme our way to yards in open space, but without playmakers to bust the long TD, we have trouble with less room to spread defenses out and less talent to win one-on-one battles, especially on the oline.

 

[SoBristol]

No, it was being used to explain the artificially inflated scoring of 2015 compared to under Babers where we haven't been getting defensive scores, special teams big plays, or having our scoring numbers padded by tacking on points in OT that weren't "earned" during the four quarters of play.

Agree with your premise about it needing to improve, but there are reasons why scoring isn't on par with yards [yet], and what I've seen in this thread is an explanation of those contextual factors. I haven't seen one poster express that they are hoping we don't score more.

People discussing 2015, 2016, 2017 as reflecting on Shafer/Babers need to adjust for several notable variables -- the QBs and WRs.

In 2015, the QB situation was a revolving door (compounded by a series of injuries to the OL). Tim Lester entered the season with Hunt as starter, defaulted to un-proven back-ups, then a true frosh Dungey at 195 lbs, and then a walk-on in his first year at SU (Mahoney). It was a huge obstacle to establishing the offense.
2016 -- Babers had Dungey in place as his starter in the Spring, in August, and in the first 8 games, then Mahoney.
2017 -- junior Dungey at 220 lbs has grown into one of the better QBs in the conference. He has been in place for all games so far (and the OL that started the season remains intact).
The second variable is the quality/experience of the WRs as a unit. The 2015 WR unit was led by a soph Ishmael. The WR unit was certainly much better in 2016 with AET, plus junior Ishmael and the emerging Phillips. The 2017 WRs have an all-league player in Ishmael as a senior, with senior Phillips at nearly the same level.

Just looking at these key positions (QB and WRs), you would expect a strong upward trend in stats (passing yards & scoring) from 2015 to 2016 to 2017. With the footnote that AET provided considerable juice to the 2016 receiving unit.