NBA to raise the minimum age of early entries?

[McNabb2Brominski]

Heard on the Dan Patrick show this morning that there is a strong possibility that the NBA will increase the age requirement for early entry to 20. The new commish wants it. Reggie Miller says its about 80% possibility of happening. This could really impact Ennis' decision to leave. Hes only 18 correct?

 

[MikeSU02]

Heard on the Dan Patrick show this morning that there is a strong possibility that the NBA will increase the age requirement for early entry to 20. The new commish wants it. Reggie Miller says its about 80% possibility of happening. This could really impact Ennis' decision to leave. Hes only 18 correct?

Is it 20 or two years removed from your graduating class?

A lot of kids are held back a year so the 20 year age limit would still only be one year in college for most kids.

 

[Alsacs]

They should do the MLB rule. Either go straight to NBA from HS or if you go to college you must stay atleast 2 years if not 3 years. Moses Malone, Shawn Kemp, Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal, Kevin Durant like talents should be allowed to go straight to the NBA, but Ndudi Ebi or Jonathon Bender's of the world would go to college if they realized its likely they wouldn't go in the first round.

 

[DonLightfoot]

My personal opinion is I would like to see something of this nature.

 

[jr4750]

They should do the MLB rule. Either go straight to NBA from HS or if you go to college you must stay atleast 2 years if not 3 years. Moses Malone, Shawn Kemp, Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal, Kevin Durant like talents should be allowed to go straight to the NBA, but Ndudi Ebi or Jonathon Bender's of the world would go to college if they realized its likely they wouldn't go in the first round.

wow Ndubi Ebi and Bender! Nice pull... Distant names from the abyss!

 

[sufandu]

They should do the MLB rule. Either go straight to NBA from HS or if you go to college you must stay atleast 2 years if not 3 years. Moses Malone, Shawn Kemp, Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal, Kevin Durant like talents should be allowed to go straight to the NBA, but Ndudi Ebi or Jonathon Bender's of the world would go to college if they realized its likely they wouldn't go in the first round.

The problem with that rule with regards to the NBA, is that a lot of kids think they're Garnett when they're Bender, and too many GMs are willing to take a chance on them so they don't miss out on the next Durant.

I think it's fine for the NBA to have a "two years out of high school" requirement. It's no different than any other profession requiring a certain degree or level of experience. It allows them to at least scout kids against stiffer competition than what they had in high school.

 

[CusefanATL]

They should do the MLB rule. Either go straight to NBA from HS or if you go to college you must stay atleast 2 years if not 3 years. Moses Malone, Shawn Kemp, Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal, Kevin Durant like talents should be allowed to go straight to the NBA, but Ndudi Ebi or Jonathon Bender's of the world would go to college if they realized its likely they wouldn't go in the first round.

I disagree... I think that would create more people wanting to go rather than be stuck in college for 2 or 3 years with no way out.

If Jonathon Bender went pro with no college restrictions... why would his decision change with restrictions?

 

[Alsacs]

The problem with that rule with regards to the NBA, is that a lot of kids think they're Garnett when they're Bender, and too many GMs are willing to take a chance on them so they don't miss out on the next Durant.

I think it's fine for the NBA to have a "two years out of high school" requirement. It's no different than any other profession requiring a certain degree or level of experience. It allows them to at least scout kids against stiffer competition than what they had in high school.

Bender was not Garnett. He went in the middle of the first round by Indiana. Jermaine O'Neal was the only HS kid out of Kobe, Lebron, Garnett, Amare Stoudmaire that wasn't a lottery pick and became a really good pro. However, O'Neal only developed after Portland traded him to Indiana where he could get the playing time he needed. NBA scouts would tell Bender go to college as you wouldn't be taken high. It wouldn't be hard to identify the talent I described.

 

[CusefanATL]

Bender was not Garnett. He went in the middle of the first round by Indiana. Jermaine O'Neal was the only HS kid out of Kobe, Lebron, Garnett, Amare Stoudmaire that wasn't a lottery pick and became a really good pro. However, O'Neal only developed after Portland traded him to Indiana where he could get the playing time he needed. NBA scouts would tell Bender go to college as you wouldn't be taken high. It wouldn't be hard to identify the talent I described.

Again, why would NBA scouts be telling him anything differently than what he was told in the 90's?

Now - they would be stuck in college creating even more fringe players opting for the draft.

 

[CusefanATL]

Bender was not Garnett. He went in the middle of the first round by Indiana. Jermaine O'Neal was the only HS kid out of Kobe, Lebron, Garnett, Amare Stoudmaire that wasn't a lottery pick and became a really good pro. However, O'Neal only developed after Portland traded him to Indiana where he could get the playing time he needed. NBA scouts would tell Bender go to college as you wouldn't be taken high. It wouldn't be hard to identify the talent I described.

Bender went 5th by the way

 

[Alsacs]

I disagree... I think that would create more people wanting to go rather than be stuck in college for 2 or 3 years with no way out.

If Jonathon Bender went pro with no college restrictions... why would his decision change with restrictions?

HS went pro in the old days because they got a guarantee from an NBA club. If your the NBA you aren't going to take a HS kid unless you know he is a sure thing if you can let them go to college and get a better read of their actual talents.

Another suggestion I would make is if you went to NBA from HS your rookie contract would be 5 years. If you went to NBA after your 2nd year of college your rookie contract is only 3 years. That way both players get to their 2nd contract at the same time and you give the kids who went to college no disadvantage and don't incentivize kids to skip college if they think they will hit FA and get that 2nd contract faster.

 

[Alsacs]

Bender went 5th by the way

I was wrong he went 5th. If the NBA evaulators told kids their positions out of HS they wouldn't declare unless they got a good evaluation. If you think more kids would declare I disagree. The NBAPA won't allow this change unless they help kids get to their 2nd contract at the same time which is what agents want. If HS kids had 5 yr rookie deals and 2nd yr college kids had 3 yr rookie deals their wouldn't be much incentive to sit on an NBA bench for 2 years unless you wanted the money the short term money instead of playing 2 years in college and developing on the court.

 

[Knicks411]

Is it 20 or two years removed from your graduating class?

A lot of kids are held back a year so the 20 year age limit would still only be one year in college for most kids.

The current rule is both; you need to be 19 plus one year removed from graduation. I presume any new rule follows the same format.

 

[CusefanATL]

HS went pro in the old days because they got a guarantee from an NBA club. If your the NBA you aren't going to take a HS kid unless you know he is a sure thing if you can let them go to college and get a better read of their actual talents.

Another suggestion I would make is if you went to NBA from HS your rookie contract would be 5 years. If you went to NBA after your 2nd year of college your rookie contract is only 3 years. That way both players get to their 2nd contract at the same time and you give the kids who went to college no disadvantage and don't incentivize kids to skip college if they think they will hit FA and get that 2nd contract faster.

Wow, again strongly disagree...

You are guaranteeing kids more money/years who haven't proven anything?!

I honestly dont see anyside of your argument right now.

And the NBA will never tell a kid they have to go to college to make sure they a sure thing. They draft on potential.

 

[Alsacs]

Wow, again strongly disagree...

You are guaranteeing kids more money/years who haven't proven anything?!

I honestly dont see anyside of your argument right now.

And the NBA will never tell a kid they have to go to college to make sure they a sure thing. They draft on potential.

You guaranteeing the HS kids 2 more years of cheap money. Unless you go near the top of the draft the NBA draft picks money is NOT insane or high. The reason you add 2 years on the contract is to disincentivize going to straight to the NBA from HS which NBA teams don't want unless the player is a sure thing a la Lebron. If a kid coming out of college got a 3 yr contract both the HS kid and the college kid would get their 2nd contract at the time. This compromise would get the support of the NBAPA's agents who HATE the age increase to 20 years because it makes the players wait an extra year to get that 2nd contract where most of the big time players make their money.

 

[Timonen]

fans of college ball need to be careful with this. while it sounds like it's bringing more good kids into the fold for longer, it might actually create a big enough market for a league (nbdl, europe, other) to create something that's actually equitable for them and a larger share might skip college altogether.

 

[CusefanATL]

I was wrong he went 5th. If the NBA evaulators told kids their positions out of HS they wouldn't declare unless they got a good evaluation. If you think more kids would declare I disagree. The NBAPA won't allow this change unless they help kids get to their 2nd contract at the same time which is what agents want. If HS kids had 5 yr rookie deals and 2nd yr college kids had 3 yr rookie deals their wouldn't be much incentive to sit on an NBA bench for 2 years unless you wanted the money the short term money instead of playing 2 years in college and developing on the court.

or in jonathan bender (proable case) and paul harris' or in malik hariston, or in randolph morris' and plenty of others' case goign to college and playing yourself out of the league.

Sometimes, it is best for the player to go to the league and fizzle out. Chances are they would have fizzled out in college too. At least they got paid.

 

[Fly Rodder]

... It wouldn't be hard to identify the talent I described.

I agree with you ... where the basketball/baseball similarity falls apart is that because of the skill required it takes even bluechippers 2-3 years to make it to the majors and more to be contributors (the generational talents like Trout and Harper still needed a a year or two in the minors). Basketball is more talent than skill compared to baseball and talent can step in and play from day 1. I think playing multiple years in college really only advances the kids that are positional tweeners or talents that haven't already spent 5-6 years playing high level competitive basketball (e.g., Hasheem Thabeet, Embiid, Fab Melo, etc.)

MLB teams don't really care if you spend 3 years in their system or 3 years in college, you still won't be ready to play pro ball. The only benefit to them is that if they draft you out of high school they have your rights when you blow up in the minors (Gerrit Cole with Pirates was drafted by the Yankees late in the first round based on his talent, but he turned down millions to boost his skills in college, and ended up being taken first overall and probably doubled or tripled his signing bonus).

 

[OttoinGrotto]

People say this hurts the players, but I don't think that's true at all. It just changes which players get rewarded. If anything its more meritocratic since it will reward guys that prove themselves a little more.

 

[jncuse]

They should do the MLB rule. Either go straight to NBA from HS or if you go to college you must stay atleast 2 years if not 3 years. Moses Malone, Shawn Kemp, Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal, Kevin Durant like talents should be allowed to go straight to the NBA, but Ndudi Ebi or Jonathon Bender's of the world would go to college if they realized its likely they wouldn't go in the first round.

How does this rule actually benefit the NBA? The NBA is making decisions that is best for its league.

Not sure how this rule stops the Bender's and Ebi's. In fact it actually encourages them to leave directly from HS.

Jonathan Bender went 5th in the draft he would still go.

And Ebi also went the first round. His choice at the time may have been - now or go to college one or two year's. If you change the choice - now or wait 3 years, and he is going to go first round... he is certainly going the NBA route.

And now some kids who are thinking one and done or even 2 and done, are all going to go the NBA directly from HS.

As college fans some may prefer this - we ensure continuity, and lose out some one and dones. It's not bad as an NCAA fan.

But it's horrible from the NBA perspective. The main difference is that many players are ready to make a contribution within the NBA within 2 years out of HS -- this is extremely rare in baseball. Athletes are near their peak athletically at a younger age - skill wise and awareness wise the peak is later. This makes a different in terms of when a basketball player and a baseball player can contribute, since baseball is more skill based.

We must also consider that a 19 year old can play the 8-10 role on a basketball team and play 15-20 minutes a game. A young bench player can play and contribute to an NBA team. A young bench player cannot make an MLB team (not enough reps). For this reason, the dynamics that enter the mind for an NBA prospect are totally different thatn the MLB prospect. A HS basketball kid is much more likely to make a bad choice because other kids have had the chance to play that entered.


So for the NBA
1. More Kids will leave earlier that are not ready. They make a decision based on the players that have been able to contribute as 19/20 years old, and anticipate it will work for them.
2. One and Done or Two and Done, makes drafting for NBA teams in the lotto so much easier. Those years in college take some of the mystery out of the process. It totally eliminates some prospects/
3. Kids may enter the draft saying I will only for "X,Y or Z".. otherwise don't draft me.

In conclusion, the "Go Immediately or Stay 3 Year" might be good for the NCAA. But I can't think of one good reason why it is good for the NBA. Why would the NBA want the rule if this is the case?

 

[Alsacs]

Again people need to realize that any change to the current system would require the support of the NBAPA which is run by the top NBA agents.

The agents only care about the 2nd contract aka restrict free agency for the draft picks. The elite talent make their big contracts after their rookie deals expire. The NBA agents don't want their clients waiting an extra year to get paid for no reason. The compromise is that being negotiated is what I am saying. Let kids declare for the draft out of HS or then they have to stay 2 years from their graduation. HS kids would get 5 yr contracts, and college kids would get 3 yr contract and both would get to restricted free agency at the same time.

 

[Alsacs]

How does this rule actually benefit the NBA? The NBA is making decisions that is besr for its league.

Not sure how this rule stops the Bender's and Ebi's. In fact it actually encourages them to leave directly from HS.

Jonathan Bender went 5th in the draft he would still go.

And Ebi also went the first round. His choice at the time may have been - now or go to college one or two year's. If you change the choice - now or wait 3 years, and he is going to go first round... he is certainly going the NBA route.

And now some kids who are thinking one and done or even 2 and done, are all going to go the NBA directly from HS.

As college fans some may prefer this - we ensure continuity, and lose out some one and dones. It's not bad as an NCAA fan.

But it's horrible from the NBA perspective. The main difference is that players are ready for the NBA 3 years out of HS -- this is extremely rare in baseball. Athletes are near their peak athletically at a younger age - skill wise and awareness wise the peak is later. This makes a different in terms of when a basketball player and a baseball player can contribute, since baseball is more skill based.

So for the NBA
1. More Kids will leave earlier that are not ready. Remember that more basketball players are ready to make some positive contribution at 20 than a 20 year old baseball player.
2. One and Done or Two and Done, makes drafting for NBA teams in the lotto so much easier. Those years in college take some of the mystery out of the process.
3. Kids may enter the draft saying I will only for "X,Y or Z".. otherwise don't draft me.

In conclusion, the "Go Immediately or Stay 3 Year" might be good for the NCAA. But I can't think of one good reason why it is good for the NBA. Why would the NBA want the rule if this is the case?

You don't think the one and done rule is good for the NBA? Its great for the NBA. If their was no one and done Aaron Gordon would have been a lottery pick last year or the Harrison twins. None of these kids are ready to contribute in the NBA this season. However, forcing them to wait one year to declare has given NBA scouts a real look at their actual talents. If the NBA could tell the NBAPA kids would get to the 2nd contract at the same time I doubt the NBAPA would give a crap about the rest.

I don't understand how people have a hard time grasping this whole crap is about the NBA teams getting free scouting of NBA prospect and the NBAPA not wanting their players waiting longer by going to college to getting their 2nd contract.

 

[Knicks411]

The varying lengths of rookie deals is an interesting one. I could definitely be sold on that one.

I don't understand how people have a hard time grasping this whole crap is about the NBA teams getting free scouting of NBA prospect and the NBAPA not wanting their players waiting longer by going to college to getting their 2nd contract.

Agreed, Jncuse is saying if you give the kids the option of leaving right after high school or staying for 3 years, then many kids will leave after high school and the NBA loses that scouting chance.

People say this hurts the players, but I don't think that's true at all. It just changes which players get rewarded. If anything its more meritocratic since it will reward guys that prove themselves a little more.

This is a good point; it's a zero sum game here. The same number of players get drafted regardless of the system.
To me, it does kind of rub me the wrong way that to say that you may be able to play in the NBA, but we aren't gonna let you. But the NBA has every right to do that; the age limit is good for the NBA product as a whole, so I can't blame them for trying to do something that is good for their game.

 

[Fly Rodder]

I don't seen any problem with more kids going to the NBA out of high school, jncuse is right though, it doesn't benefit the NBA at all (though they would love to get a crack sooner rather than later at drafting a Davis or Parker because both could play in the NBA right out of high school). If more more kids skip college to play D league that's better for the kids. They're not going to college to learn and they're not getting paid while the NCAA is reaping billions from them. Talent and hardwork will rise to the top regardless of whether they're playing in a Syracuse uniform or a Maine Redclaws jersey.

It does surprise me that more kids don't go the Brandon Jennings route, unless the NBA closed that loophole. I think the players should be able to do what they want.

 

[Fly Rodder]

But getting back to the point of the OP, when would this decision be implemented and who would it effect? (say implemented in April 2014 for the draft of 2015?)