NBA to raise the minimum age of early entries?

[TheCusian]

Heard on the Dan Patrick show this morning that there is a strong possibility that the NBA will increase the age requirement for early entry to 20. The new commish wants it. Reggie Miller says its about 80% possibility of happening. This could really impact Ennis' decision to leave. Hes only 18 correct?

Not happening this season. Too much tanking, best draft class in years - owners won't let it go through. Or if it does it will go into affect for the 2015 draft.

 

[Moontan]

Is there anything that keeps kids from going straight to the D-League?

I like the 2-year rule, so does JAB.

Give kids the option of going to school, putting up with school work & playing on TV in front of large crowds, or (if picked by an NBA team) going to the D-League, getting paid and playing in front of 500 fans.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Not happening this season. Too much tanking, best draft class in years - owners won't let it go through. Or if it does it will go into affect for the 2015 draft.

Philly fans would cry!

 

[Alsacs]

I don't seen any problem with more kids going to the NBA out of high school, jncuse is right though, it doesn't benefit the NBA at all (though they would love to get a crack sooner rather than later at drafting a Davis or Parker because both could play in the NBA right out of high school). If more more kids skip college to play D league that's better for the kids. They're not going to college to learn and they're not getting paid while the NCAA is reaping billions from them. Talent and hardwork will rise to the top regardless of whether they're playing in a Syracuse uniform or a Maine Redclaws jersey.

It does surprise me that more kids don't go the Brandon Jennings route, unless the NBA closed that loophole. I think the players should be able to do what they want.

Who is going to watch a Maine Redclaws game? I hate this crap going to college gets these kids on national TV a lot more than the NBDL would provide. They get paid in the NDBL, but it doesn't mean their talent is better developed. Look at P.J. Hairston's NBDL stats
PPG21.2
RPG3.7
APG0.8
He is getting paid peanuts in a league where nobody cares or watches and won't do that in the NBA next year.

I don't have a problem with kids going straight to the NBA out of HS, but if they had 5 year contracts and weren't going to play in an NBA rotation until year 3 then maybe getting an education and the exposure of playing in college would be appealing to most of the players. People make it sound like everyone went from HS to the NBA.

 

[jncuse]

You don't think the one and done rule is good for the NBA? Its great for the NBA. If their was no one and done Aaron Gordon would have been a lottery pick last year or the Harrison twins. None of these kids are ready to contribute in the NBA this season. However, forcing them to wait one year to declare has given NBA scouts a real look at their actual talents. If the NBA could tell the NBAPA kids would get to the 2nd contract at the same time I doubt the NBAPA would give a crap about the rest.

I don't understand how people have a hard time grasping this whole crap is about the NBA teams getting free scouting of NBA prospect and the NBAPA not wanting their players waiting longer by going to college to getting their 2nd contract.

I must have wrote out my initial response poorly (or something was ignored), because that's not what I'm saying at all.

One and Done - Better for the NBA than the old model, because it improves scouting, reduces draft risk (as I pointed out in my post), ensures guaranteed contracts go to better players, provides free development, and free marketing.

Two and Done - Same as Above, but all the factors become even more significant. More scouting, even less risks at this point.

HS or 3 Years - Your not going to get 3 years to scout for most kids. Your going to kids like Bender and Ebi that make the jump early. Your going to get kids who would have went to school for 1 or 2 years jumping early. A 17/18 year old HS basketball kid sees the success of a few athletes at 19/20, and thinks he can do the same. Unfortunately many will flop. An MLB prospect will not see the same examples.

HS NBA prospect thinks he is choosing betweeen "Big City NBA life" or College.
HS MLB prospect thinks he is choosing between "Hicktown, USA" or College.

The model will encourage worst decisions if done in the NBA.

The 2 year minimum is much, much better for the NBA.

 

[Digger]

Heard on the Dan Patrick show this morning that there is a strong possibility that the NBA will increase the age requirement for early entry to 20. The new commish wants it. Reggie Miller says its about 80% possibility of happening. This could really impact Ennis' decision to leave. Hes only 18 correct?

Ennis turns 20 in August, FYI.

 

[Alsacs]

I must have wrote out my initial response poorly (or something was ignored), because that's not what I'm saying at all.

One and Done - Better for the NBA than the old model, because it improves scouting, reduces draft risk (as I pointed out in my post), ensures guaranteed contracts go to better players, provides free development, and free marketing.

Two and Done - Same as Above, but all the factors become even more significant. More scouting, even less risks at this point.

HS or 3 Years - Your not going to get 3 years to scout for most kids. Your going to kids like Bender and Ebi that make the jump early. Your going to get kids who would have went to school for 1 or 2 years jumping early. A 17/18 year old HS basketball kid sees the success of a few athletes at 19/20, and thinks he can do the same. Unfortunately many will flop. An MLB prospect will not see the same examples.

HS NBA prospect thinks he is choosing betweeen "Big City NBA life" or College.
HS MLB prospect thinks he is choosing between "Hicktown, USA" or College.

The model will encourage worst decisions if done in the NBA.

The 2 year minimum is much, much better for the NBA.

I was being greedy with the 3 year if you go to college it wouldn't work. It would be go out of HS or you aren't eligible for 2 years. If Bender/Edi still went pro I highly doubt they would get drafted in the first round until late because more sure prospects would be available. If you slapped a 5 year contract on a HS rookie and 3 year contract on a 2 yr from HS rookie you get the NBAPA's blessing and it helps the NBA, college game, and talented HS kids who didn't want to go to college or overseas.

 

[Knicks411]

There's less than zero% chance this affects this year's draft. I wouldn't be surprised if it's not till 2016.

 

[Alsacs]

None of these changes will be done until the next CBA. Silver is just trying to flex some muscle, but the NBAPA won't agree to raise the minimum age to 20 without some sort of tradeoff. I think allowing kids to go straight out of HS or not until they are 2 years removed from their graduating HS class will be the compromise.

 

[Knicks411]

None of these changes will be done until the next CBA. Silver is just trying to flex some muscle, but the NBAPA won't agree to raise the minimum age to 20 without some sort of tradeoff. I think allowing kids to go straight out of HS or not until they are 2 years removed from their graduating HS class will be the compromise.

I think I saw something from Silver where he said it could get done outside of the CBA. Not sure if i can pull the quote now. There would have to be something on the other side, for sure

 

[jncuse]

I was being greedy with the 3 year if you go to college it wouldn't work. It would be go out of HS or you aren't eligible for 2 years. If Bender/Edi still went pro I highly doubt they would get drafted in the first round until late because more sure prospects would be available. If you slapped a 5 year contract on a HS rookie and 3 year contract on a 2 yr from HS rookie you get the NBAPA's blessing and it helps the NBA, college game, and talented HS kids who didn't want to go to college or overseas.

Not sure if that would work the way you intended. A lot of the "elite" prospects want to get to the 2nd round contract, so I see where you are going from the angle.

But now the downside risk of leaving directly from HS is much lower. You are getting a 5 year guaranteed contract instead of 3. And if you go to college you only get 3. I guess you could put team options in years 3,4 and 5 for an early entrant to make up for this disconnect.

I just don't see why the NBA really wants kids from HS. Lets look at the mega prospects in the past 10 years - James, Oden, Durant, Wiggins, Parker. If they go to the NCAA and dominate, isn't the payoff when they enter the league that much better?

Two time NCAA champion Lebron James would be just as marketable .. and perhaps moreso. OR, maybe they think a "megastar" could loss some exposyre glow at the lower level.

I doubt they would go to a 0/2 model. Still leaves too much exposure to HS kids they do not want in the league.

Here is what I could see as a compromise.

Two year minimum.
Each year an NBA committee selects up to 1 HS player for early entry.
Each year an NBA committee selects up to 2 Freshmen players for early entry.

 

[Alsacs]

Not sure if that would work the way you intended. A lot of the "elite" prospects want to get to the 2nd round contract, so I see where you are going from the angle.

But now the downside risk of leaving directly from HS is much lower. You are getting a 5 year guaranteed contract instead of 3. And if you go to college you only get 3. I guess you could put team options in years 3,4 and 5 for an early entrant to make up for this disconnect.

I just don't see why the NBA really wants kids from HS. Lets look at the mega prospects in the past 10 years - James, Oden, Durant, Wiggins, Parker. If they go to the NCAA and dominate, isn't the payoff when they enter the league that much better?

Two time NCAA champion Lebron James would be just as marketable .. and perhaps moreso. OR, maybe they think a "megastar" could loss some exposyre glow at the lower level.

I doubt they would go to a 0/2 model. Still leaves too much exposure to HS kids they do not want in the league.

Here is what I could see as a compromise.

Two year minimum.
Each year an NBA committee selects up to 1 HS player for early entry.
Each year an NBA committee selects up to 2 Freshmen players for early entry.

By allowing HS kids to enter the NBA draft you aren't restricting the elite talent from skipping college. The point of some kids going from HS to the NBA is the incentive of getting the clock started earlier towards the 2nd contract which is their payday. If you made kids who went directly from HS wait the same time as kids who went to college then the decision wouldn't be so easy. I agree that years 4 and 5 would have to be team options as well for HS so stiffs don't get extra paychecks.

Mega prospects could go directly to the NBA but more kids would go to college and the NBA would get those free scouting years while they were in college. The 5 yr contract for HS kids and 3 yr contract for college kids is the top compromise trust me I wouldn't be saying this unless I researched it and know where the wind is blowing. Agents wants a fair playing field for 2nd contracts or they won't support an increase from the current system of 1 and done from HS.

 

[Knicks411]

I wonder if Lebron went to school for 2 years if his game would have been hurt just a little by it. It's impossible to say either way, but for a guy who would have been just so mcuh better than everyone else at that level, 2 years without playing against the best players on the planet may have hurt him a bit.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Who is going to watch a Maine Redclaws game? I hate this crap going to college gets these kids on national TV a lot more than the NBDL would provide.

Well of course, the NBADL has to compete with a college game that has a virtual monopoly on all talent for 1-3 years and has been cash cow for four decades. TV certainly has no reason to upset the applecart.

Everyone is getting paid a lot except the athletes driving the boat.

The only thing irritates me about the whole thing is the lack of a real option for the kids whose knees are carrying the whole enterprise.

 

[sufandu]

Bender was not Garnett. He went in the middle of the first round by Indiana. Jermaine O'Neal was the only HS kid out of Kobe, Lebron, Garnett, Amare Stoudmaire that wasn't a lottery pick and became a really good pro. However, O'Neal only developed after Portland traded him to Indiana where he could get the playing time he needed. NBA scouts would tell Bender go to college as you wouldn't be taken high. It wouldn't be hard to identify the talent I described.

It isn't hard to identify the Garnetts and Lebrons. What is hard is convincing a kid that he won't be an instant millionaire when that's all he's heard for the last 4 years from everyone around him. There were a number of prospects that were drafted high out of high school and went bust. I think that happens less now because have a chance to see guys play against people they can't just dominate physically. I think you see it in a higher quality NBA than what we had 10 or so year ago. More kids are going to college and finding out they're not as good as they thought they were. It's better for the NBA and it's better for the kids that have an inflated opinion of themselves. If that means the few phenoms that could actually make it have to wait a couple years, I think it's a good trade off.

 

[Eagles20]

Bender was not Garnett. He went in the middle of the first round by Indiana. Jermaine O'Neal was the only HS kid out of Kobe, Lebron, Garnett, Amare Stoudmaire that wasn't a lottery pick and became a really good pro. However, O'Neal only developed after Portland traded him to Indiana where he could get the playing time he needed. NBA scouts would tell Bender go to college as you wouldn't be taken high. It wouldn't be hard to identify the talent I described.

Monte Ellis and Lou Williams have had nice careers as second round guys... Obviously not all star players, but have stuck around for awhile and been effective.

 

[two3zone]

Bender made 30 million in the league, not including anything he made overseas. Not crying for him or anybody else in his footsteps. I'm sure he could afford to go to college if he wanted to. Let HS guys go to the NBA. Simple.

 

[Czar]

I think Simmons suggestion a couple weeks ago is best. Make your entry age change how first contracts work.

18 years old? 5 year rookie contract
19? 4 year. So on, so forth.

It makes it so declaring early offers no incentive on getting to the second contract, while allowing kids to still leave whenever they want.

 

[jncuse]

I think Simmons suggestion a couple weeks ago is best. Make your entry age change how first contracts work.

18 years old? 5 year rookie contract
19? 4 year. So on, so forth.

It makes it so declaring early offers no incentive on getting to the second contract, while allowing kids to still leave whenever they want.

As long as there are team options in year 4 and year 5. Otherwise you are encouraging people to leave early because guaranteed money is even more.

 

[Czar]

As long as there are team options in year 4 and year 5. Otherwise you are encouraging people to leave early because guaranteed money is even more.

I'm down with that. But it seems like a way better option and less prone to people freaking out about forcing kids into college.

 

[thebigeast44]

As others have said, it should be years out of school as well as age. Otherwise, you could have frosh Buss declare because he is 21 but BJ could not because he is 18. Personally, whether or not it's fair for HS kids to be prevented from going directly to the NBA (and a good argument can be made that they should be eligible to jump whenever they want), as a college basketball fan I'd love it. The sophomore jump JB talks about would be nice to see for players like Ennis etc.